The world’s finally, belatedly going on lockdown. It’s the only sensible thing to do—slow the spread by isolating ourselves. The response has been badly bungled all over the place, but some recognition of reality has finally started to take hold. And if we’ve handled it disastrously to date, we have to see it out better to learn the proper lessons about preparedness and response for the next inevitable outbreak. And of course in the here and now we have to do anything and everything we can to minimize the number of deaths and follow-on consequences from overwhelmed health systems.
Since this is a Villa blog, I’ve only considered how the pandemic affects the team in the comments so far. Lots of other things to worry about, and I usually stay out of anything unrelated to football. But obviously this is different. So the main thing is for everyone to reduce contact, find clever ways to keep supporting local businesses if they’re allowed to remain open. Do some shopping for high-risk individuals. The missus and I are much more worried about our parents than the kids. And we’re worried about the kids. So, we’re dropping off groceries, keeping our distance, and telling them to stay put.
Higher up? Governments need to do what they can to offer support to the workers and businesses who are being affected. As well as do everything they can to stop the spread and treat those who are ill. It takes competence and intelligence, which have seemingly been in short supply in much of the Industrialized West until things got out of hand. Surely we can rely on those who dedicate their lives to public health and epidemiology to have rational paths forward if we only listen to them.
When it comes to football, truth be told, I won’t be heartbroken if the FA do the right thing and just suspend and/or void the season. Yes, there’s lots of money involved. Lots of details and dominoes. I have no idea where the acts of god clauses fall into place in all the various agreements and contracts. For example, Sky and BT pay the PL for rights, sell subscriptions and more to make their money, of course. They’re not considering refunds, at the moment. Somewhere in that agreement a person clicks on will be some line saying Sky or BT is not responsible for things beyond their control.
This sort of thing is playing out for everyone in all kinds of different scenarios. And the only thing I care about in regard to sport is the workaday people whose lives and livelihoods will be affected. People who don’t have guarantees. I hope the clubs (to the extent their resources allow) do everything in their power to look after all the associated employees related to the club who don’t have contracts. And hold firm in not resuming play until it’s safe to do so. That’s as much about messaging as anything. And in the meantime, the clubs can assume a greater, more positive role in their communities by doing other things than resuming matches too soon.
When it comes to the season, league standings, all of that…it may get a bit heated. We’re all reading and watching the latest, have no idea how it will shake out. But everyone’s going to have an agenda, for reasons right or wrong. For example, I’ve seen Oliver Holt being an idiot in the Mail saying this is all about denying Liverpool the title. Villa, Bournemouth, and Norwich? Hard cheese, but you can’t keep the title from Liverpool.
Absurd. That’s not anyone’s motivation, and dressing it up like some opportunistic vendetta is ludicrous. It’s a global health crisis, we’re shutting down countries. It’s not a campaign to deprive Liverpool of a title. Talk about a victim complex. Kenny Dalglish, who couldn’t be less neutral, agrees. “Anyone with a football heart…” Please. Don’t tell me Villans, with all their suffering and loyalty, don’t have football hearts.
I’m sure everyone would be quite happy to vote Liverpool champions regardless of how everything else is dealt with. I’m sure Liverpool are guaranteed CL football, regardless, and all that money, because that show must go on at some point, as well. Promote the teams in automatic positions. That’s easy, too. That there’s some immutable law handed down from Moses saying you can’t crown a champion with relegating teams is farcical.
But to assume that anything is going to play out normally from here is to deny reality. Does a three- or four-week suspension (or even six to eight weeks) help a struggling team catch its breath? If anyone climbs out of the bottom, is it fair to the teams who get sucked in?
I don’t think so. In any other sport without relegation and promotion, the whole thing wouldn’t be an issue. So just take those things off the table.
Before all this blew up, it was obviously looking decidedly dodgy for Villa. No idea whether we’d have escaped the drop. But you can’t relegate teams who have a mathematical chance of surviving. The consequences are too great. Liverpool’s ‘punishment’ would be far less than Villa’s, Bournemouth’s and Norwich’s. And it’s irrational to be rushing back to football with much bigger concerns at hand because we must crown a champion. And if Villa haven’t yet ‘earned’ relegation, then teams who haven’t already achieved automatic promotion down the leagues have no greater claim on going up. Have they earned it yet? No.
Continuing the season in the summer at least it has an air of fairness about it, even if contracts, fitness, breaks in play, fixture congestion and all the rest complicate matters. Dalglish may not care about Villa playing two games a week, because Liverpool only need to win two and they could probably use a rest. But to not even get the standard break between matches when Villa face 10 cup finals is hardly fair on a threadbare side.
For me, the compromise whereby you promote without relegation makes a lot of sense in terms of the least amount of damage done and honoring the spirit of sport. No one suffers the bitter consequences of relegation, but teams who’ve tried long and hard to get promoted and are poised to do so don’t miss out.
But as long as people resist basic, common-sense solutions, it’s going to be bit of a nail-biter as far as football goes. Here’s hoping football manages to stumble over the right thing to do, on and off the pitch.
In the broader picture? None of this matters a bit until we get things settled down and prepare for what’s likely to be a resurgence in the fall. What happens to people and their jobs? Their housing? How are we going to better protect the particularly vulnerable? That’s all that matters.
Over to you.
The Author
John Clark
John is co-owner of AVL, and has followed the Villa since the '70s. A journalist by trade, he is, by most accounts, a very nice person. You can follow me on Twitter @JClarkKohoutek. It's an astonishing experience. Or a complete waste of time.Comments 218
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Good post jc,will read in full later,ireland nearly in full lock down,going to cripple economy but health has to come 1st,120 thousand people lost jobs since Thursday
Another consideration crops up if the season is declared null and void. What happens about FFP for the current financial year? Does the situation provide a vehicle for clubs to load this year with big losses as it will be argued that null and void is just that and cannot be considered as accurate due to reduced income?
JG]
Here Boris is leaving the schools open, which is where most of the flu & colds come from.
It’s bad enough without a deliberately designed ploy to choose who’s valuable to the country even before the virus epidemic has materialised badly.
For me it reminds me of the Nazi methodology, & a terrible risk, counter to every other country’s methods of dealing with it.
Feels like we’re in a Boris theme park.
If it gets too bad I’m going to put my primus, food & sleeping gear in the car & fuck off to snowdonia & talk to sheep that can’t infect me.
Plug
It may be too logical for the EPL
JG, why is the Queens head on our stamps?
Because if her backside was on them, nobody would lick them.
Enough of these jokes about the Monarch. Two future Kings are Villans forever.
Plug,
I would have to think so…Seems like one of the easier issues to address. You have a stop point, and income should be relatively easy to extrapolate for any lost games, or games played without supporters.
And of course, no idea how the TV contracts work when there are no games to televise. At any rate, whatever the losses, I’d think FFP has to take it all into account. And that’s just math.
IanG,
The response in the US has been so god-awful because Trump has ridiculed the importance of science, government, disaster response…experts and facts as he seeks to create a puppet state with no challenge to authority. Funding cuts, lies, blame-shifting, no coordinated response whatsoever. Anything meaningful is largely being undertaken without any national government direction or support.
No leadership, no concern. Just PR, the election, business interests. He only cares how it affects his political prospects. It’s criminal, basically.
And yes, seems Boris’ handling is no better. Denial and callousness rather than decisive leadership.
JC
Has trump not changed tact completely, all flights in are banned from Europe and I see plenty jokes going that Mexicans are demanding trump builds his wall to keep the Americans out of Mexico
Where to start, Sky sent me an email saying my price is going up £3, not on the sports package mind, the mind boggles. Can’t see a sensible solution where monies are concerned until they realise the entire system might implode.
My logical head is spinning at present as the figures don’t add up on a global scale vs day to day deaths . Normal flu kills 290k to 640k yearly yet no panic, ditto many other things like heart disease at 18 million, Cancer 10m, 800k commit suicide. All cheery stuff I know.
Seems to me we need to isolate the vulnerable where possible to avoid overwhelming the health services but the world shutdown is asking for trouble, people don’t appear to do sensible anymore. Every radio show seems to be shouting don’t panic at the masses who then panic. The entire thing reminds me of the War of the worlds radio broadcast hysteria.
Still lets see where it goes and help where we can, no cues at the coffee shop so theres a bonus.
Ques even 🙂
IanG- I’m afraid you might be right about being viewed as expendable , saw an article this week where the writer pointed out the effect of losing the old and ill etc would balance the losses , very very cold view. Don’t know about you but I think these last few years have turned into a conspiracy theory free for all. Very hard to believe anything put out there now without an oceans worth of salt. I’m waiting for the Banks to hit the reset button.
IanG,
Basically after being contradicted by every reputable source including his own health chiefs, major cities, universities and school systems shutting down, and having been found to be spouting nothing but nonsense, lies, and wishful thinking for weeks, he implemented the travel ban. It fits his anti-immigration/anti-dark-skin agenda, so he’s all for that.
Of course, the travel ban put thousands and thousands of panicked travelers packed together in airports for hours going through meaningless screenings with no testing. So, well done there.
MK,
I think the issue, what’s different from flu, are the virality, mortality ratios, and impact in terms of treatment requirements. And there are just huge numbers of unknowns. The calculations based on the CDC’s four scenarios “suggested 2.4 million to 21 million people in the United States could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.”
So, the distancing is simply about flattening the transmission curve, slowing the spread. It appears that when people get the high-quality care the virus merits, their outcomes are vastly improved. When the system is overwhelmed, like in Italy, they’re having to choose to let older people die.
Further:
“Dr. Lawler recently presented his own “best guess” projections to American hospital and health system executives at a private webinar convened by the American Hospital Association. He estimated that some 96 million people in the United States would be infected. Five out of every hundred would need hospitalization, which would mean close to five million hospital admissions, nearly two million of those patients requiring intensive care and about half of those needing the support of ventilators.
Dr. Lawler’s calculations suggested 480,000 deaths, which he said was conservative. By contrast, about 20,000 to 50,000 people have died from flu-related illnesses this season, according to the C.D.C. Unlike with seasonal influenza, the entire population is thought to be susceptible to the new coronavirus.”
Do we know? No. Is it best to take steps to prevent needless deaths? Yes.
I think Considering that the world does enormous business with China and with people flying in and out constantly for months before the Chinese put their hands up. I cannot see any way that the horse had not already bolted by dec last year.
I’m in two minds about governments being unprepared or wilfully playing the situation down. I think its the possibly the second as they know there is not a fat lot they can do beyond wash hands and isolate. As for unprepared, How do you prepare for something you have no idea how to treat beyond basic measures? for me the government have no magic solutions and neither do the health services sadly.
JC- I agree we have to do all we can, I just think that there are far more infected than we can know right now. Many get no symptoms or very mild, I do wonder what the figures really are.
JC
Yes I’ve been following the funfair in the US quite closely for a couple of years, & it is serious shit, & it’s spread round the world like a pandemic.
Boris is Trump light, & he always bottles it, a petty criminal out of his depth, but it’s the one’s behind him that bother me.
Mark
Thats not a conspiracy theory either.
IanG- many of them aren’t.
Totally agree, MK.
Friend of ours is a nurse. This morning, she got sent home from the oncology clinic with a fever and dry cough. One of her colleagues is now running a fever, as well.
The health system they work for refused to test either of them. So much for accurate numbers.
And yes, it has to have been among us for a while.
Suso got his wrist slapped
“The views attributed to Mr Garcia Pitarch in the Spanish media are not those of Aston Villa. Now is not the time to be speculating about future arrangements for Premier League football this season.”
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/aston-villa-news-suso-coronavirus-17935304
Surely now is the time tk get rid of smith and start sounding out new managers?
What’s the point of waiting to start again, keep Smith and go down
Obviously remains a very fluid situation, but the noises from the PL seem to suggest they’re desperate to play the fixtures out. I’m sure you’ve all read the “plan.”
To me, there’s a lot of it that sounds ridiculous, like potentially playing three fixtures in a week. Fine for City, not great for Villa.
They’re obviously spinning and hoping to avoid harder choices. But obviously, the broader context will determine all this.
JC
Even as soon as tomorrow
Frem
Pour yourself a large one & relax
JC
We’ll be lucky to get out of quarantine by the beginning of the next season, maybe double or nothing.
IanG,
I’m assuming it’s not wanting to deal with all the money stuff, TV, sponsorships, whatever else…At least look like you’re making a good-faith effort to fulfill all obligations. And that I understand. You’ve got to posture, then let the inevitable take the decisions out of your hands. If you postpone/cancel without being forced to, different legal outcomes.
It’s the pundit twats I’ve gotten sick of hearing: integrity of the game, blah, blah. A once-in-a-lifetime disruption blows everything up, and we’re supposed to worry about explaining to future generations why we chucked a single season of football in the midst of global chaos.
My god. That’s the bit doing my head in.
No football to end April now ,they the players will all end
up like gabby double belly and chin
RIP Peter Whittingham.
Peter Whittingham –
A sad end for a much-underrated player – Villa, as usual, not valuing what we had – and here’s a nicely-written tribute.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51943841
Get a load of that goal, too! Quite a player: similar to Matt Le Tissier in skills, modesty and lack of England caps.
Le Tissier Modest?
Modest, as in what you might call a lack of ‘Flash-Harryness”!
Ah, normal then.
I would keep DS and get rid of JT. Based on our defensive record, JT is not cut out for management.
Will be interesting to see if EPL scrap the season. Unless they play behind closed doors – which make no sense to me – it could be July at earliest before the season restarts
VillMD
If the young & the idiots continue to think they’re invulnerable & ignore it, it’ll still be here for the new year. along with the second & third waves, with the accompanying tragedies.
I’m enjoying seeing the football status quo struggle trying to remain relevant with something they can’t control & make extortionate amounts of money from.
As for the Villa, hopefully some of us will be around to see the potential fix, still with fingers crossed.
Take care & stay well everyone.
In Brum the hospitals are sending relevant news to those in their out patient care in real time.
I got sent this by an old friend today.
‘Guys, Hospital sent a message this morning that this virus seems to be spreading quickly via petrol pumps so have asked to tell everyone to wear gloves or use a paper towel when filling up and dispose of straight away -please share -thanks’
VivaVilla
Nice goal
IanG
Isn’t it just? 🙂
IanG- There are loads of similar things being put about including advice from china, doctors etc etc that are questionable. Unless the government are checking all objects we touch now I would not worry, they are not even testing people. Does beg the question does the supreme+ pumps pass it on quicker?
Food delivery companies are asking to be given money in an envelope?? obviously corona resistant ones 🙂
From my experience and others over the last few months with some pretty hefty fevers/chill/aches/coughs myself and those around me (much more than normal) its been here a while, at least since late Nov, That is encouraging if so.
Mark
This was local advice from the QE & Heartlands hospitals yesterday, a bit nearer than China, & from the horses mouth, but will soon apply everywhere as it’s also common sense.
We’ve also got last year’s different corona virus to this humungous one, & the one before that etc.
Your logic seems a little dangerous to me, as it’s not fact based, but you might be lucky.
But we’re supposed to be intelligent? So I suppose the supreme+ makes us come quicker :]
IanG- yes its common sense therefore should be in practice same as door knobs etc.
Could well be that Corona likes something in fuels, its no coincidence that polluted citys are hit the hardest and peoples lungs will have damage and muck from cars in them which this virus might find delicious. Most viruses use up something in your body like selenium to grow so that would make sense.
As for my logic being dangerous, its based on observation, A women returning from China in nov 19 and visiting her father in law at local old folks dementia home (where my mrs works) and ten die in a lock down around end of Nov/start Dec. I doubt anyone was checking for Cov19 at that time but the nurse said it was Corona by the symptoms. Chances that many other infected Chinese/ business people got out before lock down in China pretty high I’d think.
My Mrs and her family have had all the symptoms as have I. All around Xmas time when they all get together, fits the incubation period.
Then roughly 6 weeks later in Feb I had another dose , started with the sore throat barely noticeable, then dry cough, then three nights of fever/chills +2.5c over normal. this was 5 days after being in contact with the mrs grand son who was running a low fever but generally asymptomatic. Only now feeling closer to normal same with the mrs.
Those are the facts I have mate, as many people are Asymptomatic and the incubation in others so long Its a certainty that millions not 1000’s likely have it.
Doesn’t make it any less dangerous to the vulnerable but the figures of 5000 cases in the UK seems tiny for a highly contagious disease. We simply do not have the figures to be accurate. Considering 17,000 in the UK die annually from the Flu though so this disease is either not as contagious as thought or not as deadly or yet to do its worse, we don’t know. It is impossible to get infection levels for either of them.
The proof of the pudding will be in countries like Mexico that have said they have bigger things to worry about, Dengue fever among them. We will see as it plays out, Stay Safe mate.
PS I’m bored now.
some potential good news, don’t shoot the messenger.
https://twitter.com/EdanYago/status/1240709966404571136?utm_campaign=Chris%20Kresser&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=85039744&_hsenc=p2ANqtz–V7atGWgnWqfTyasswFr6mlaPxWRi4tO-hQQKh6CMMZegZ61AxO5OlpNu-8BmdMnSP8qSPNf1Ei7AFuuMQ06fkVt5i-f75KwaniYnBxz2TTEugN-E&_hsmi=85068162
RE above: Follow Yago’s thread
Mark
You may be bored, but I’m not, I’m paying attention.
The problem I have is that fact & people’s perceptions are often different.
I have spent time in china, &also have family that have just come back from China after 10 years, & they would be very unhappy with what was said.
Also as one of the at risk people, if others personalise the issue I’m extremely wary, as they may be right or they may not, because to put it charitably, they don’t know for sure either.
I say to all, better refrain from public personalised reactionary pronouncements, especially doing the false news mantra.
i merely passed on what the hospital wanted to be passed on, that you dissed, which encourages stupidity, but I hope people on here use their brain.
If you have had it, please keep away from me, [ with knobs on] :]
Stay well mate
Mark
PS: of course it’s been here for a while, as it has everywhere else, along with mutated strains, as has been reported.
A friend of mine from college is the chief pulmonologist at Johns Hopkins. One of the world’s top five. He’s sleeping in the hospital, there 24/7. He says we’re past the point of testing, assumes there are hundreds of thousands of infected people in the US. We may never get an accurate post-hoc analysis. He agrees with the 40-70% model.
He’s afraid we’ve failed to flatten the curve, and believes it will peak in July/August. A big concern is mutation in a second wave come Fall.
So he’s basically confirming the sober assessments we’ve read from responsible sources. Continue being very careful, and do so for a long while yet. You’re not overreacting.
IanG- I wasn’t dissing the message just pointing out the many that have been circulated all from purportedly from doctors giving advice etc. People are understandably edgy but people are reporting it from a nurse in Ireland, scotland etc.
https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/coronavirus-nurse-warns-covid-19-3971773
The EPL suggest that the season can be finished behind closed doors by the end of July or August. That is money well and truly speaking. The financial losses are so great, it simply has to happen.
These people are living on a different planet. In the wider economy, huge businesses are going to be looking at eye watering losses. Football is no different. Playing behind closed doors will infringe the “two metre distance” rule. It ain’t going to happen.
Things will get worse on the virus front for months to come. The EPL are whistling in the dark. Nobody knows when the games might be ready to start again. Villa need to start planning for reinforcing our midfield. We badly need a couple of warriors in there to help Jack and SJM.
On the footy front, if the virus is basically out there by the time they begin the games the players will be sitting ducks as their immune system take a knock after every game. Playing 2-3 games a week would be even worse. In an over-trained state we would likely see teams self isolating more than playing. All will depend on if they have gained immunity.
Mark
The request came a family I’ve known for 40 years not the internet, & my mate’s brother has had a heart attack & his mother is over 90 & in poor health, which is why he personally had the message from the hospitals.
It was specifically for Birmingham, & personally I also find the tendency to believe everything you hear on the internet abhorrent.
But it’s nothing new, & predates modern technology & New Age, which is why I don’t live in it, & am a confirmed sceptic.
But human nature is always the predominate factor, however it’s dressed up.
As far as football is concerned, I agree with plug, & I have a feeling that events will make most scenarios irrelevant.
There is comfort that for once it’s not just the Villa in the shit, which makes it harder to scapegoat us.
But they will try.
I may be well behind the curve here, but Nick’s doing us all a service:
https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2020/03/20/this-commentators-got-no-live-sport-left-so-hes-commentating-on-everyday-life-and-its-brilliant
IanG- Hard to fathom what is the truth mate, certainly you can’t trust the politicians fully. A case in point is modern dietary advice, the government take their lead from industry funded studies, IMO part of the reason this virus is so disruptive leads directly from these policies with high rates of Diabetes, heart disease etc weighing the NHS down when it needn’t. People in poor health are sitting ducks and we mass produce them.
On that front if you know your way around the crap on the internet then there is good info out there. I’m sure this is the truth out there for many subjects but the waters are very muddy. Some I am sure are made purposely so.
Mark
Not so hard mate
IanG- Maybe for a guru like yourself mate mere mortals like myself struggle on.
Lovely stuff, JC – thanks for the link to these. Absolute gold dust!
O’Hare in talks and doesn’t look like signing so he may be off end of the summer. Don’t blame him if they won’t play him.
Hi lifers, hope your keeping safe. Working from home for the second week, schools have been out for about two weeks here, and no return date yet. Canada has to make a call by Easter whether we can go ahead with the Grand Prix and that’s in June. I don’t expect to be back at work until after Easter to be honest, any earlier would make the past couple of weeks null and void.
I don’t believe they can relegate us when we have a game in hand, and if we played that game and won it then Watford will be pi$$ed off. I have thought maybe a play off between the bottom six might be fair but have doubts about that too. As much as I hate to agree with her I think Karen Brady is right just null and void the season. I don’t mind if Liverpool are given the title anyway, lets face it they have done enough to deserve it. Anyway keep safe and healthy every one, will keep checking in every couple of days to see if there is any thing new going on.
No, you can’t blame him if he goes, MK. It would be a real shame, though.
viva…
He’s absolutely solid gold. What a pro. I laughed so hard.
I really recommend everyone have a quick look:
https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2020/03/20/this-commentators-got-no-live-sport-left-so-hes-commentating-on-everyday-life-and-its-brilliant
Canadian,
I also agree with her. The whole thing is just silly at this point.
What I think is happening is the money/contracts/sponsors, etc. If the league makes all the right noises, and then are forced to cancel, they’ve probably got insurance that kicks in.
But if they just call it off without being ‘forced’ to, they may have to pay up. Maybe they do anyway, I don’t know. At my work, we’ve got a big international conference we put on in June, and if it gets taken out of our hands, then we get relief whereas we wouldn’t otherwise.
Like you, I’d say give Liverpool the title, fair enough, extraordinary circumstances. Promote two if you like, and deal with the winnowing later.
But to force clubs to fight for their lives with this kind of interruption/disruption…I just can’t see how that’s any more fair than any other scenario we’re being given.
And to all…Please do be careful. I’m going a bit stir crazy, but it’s the only thing to do.
Mark
If you think I’m a guru then you may be far too close to your computer.
JC/Canadian
Yes the solution really is that obvious, but it all has to go by Insurance procedures etc, let alone the egos involved.
What’s wrong with a bit of winnowing anyway?
It’s like watching a play & we never get out of Act1.
The O’Hare piece seems to be a bit of a slow news day dredged up old story.
Well the air is cleaner at least, & it is quieter now the kids are joining in the self incarceration
IanG- Times are hard.
Ohare is out of contract and many Villa youth chose to leave rather than were pushed apparently for similar reason, we will see.
Mark
It’s the same at many clubs, & there are many reasons for this, & one of them is mismanagement, & one is that their development isn’t in time with the clubs’ team needs, it’s a moving scenario.
We’ve all seen very good young players stall in their development & disappear, even some who were given a first team place & didn’t or couldn’t take it, or were a square peg in a round hole for some managers’ team ideas, or were sold for financially more immediate needs .
I totally understand any gripes from them, but also with some they had growing up to do, which can change everything.
It is a bit simplistic as an analysis just to blame the clubs, & tends often to be an emotional response which as fans we all understand.
But as you say, we will see, but it will take time to change course & see the results.
O’Hare maybe should have gone out on loan before he did to strengthen up & get experience, & possibly needs another one as he is not a direct replacement for Jack, currently, but in my opinion needs more nurturing, probably in the Championship, for at least half a season.
And he’s only 21 & not anywhere near the finished article, but we need to keep him.
There is of course the make or break element, where some naturally flower later, & here Bannon springs to mind.
And now Boris has got it, I hope it results in some space in him for some common sense.
I wish all those with the virus a speedy recovery.
r0bb0
How are things down your neck of the woods?
You have a fair amount of responsibility right now as an employer, on top of your personal circumstances, & I hope you’re working through it ok.
Viva Devon!
It’s getting lawless out there, my motability car has been nicked
IanG- Yes mate its not a perfect system, we have given contracts to many youth and not played them. We have been in a shit patch for a long time though and have never stopped and risked a season to change that. When we dropped a season of bringing a few through and being less extravagant on our purchases. A Smith or Wilder type manager would of helped. sometimes a needs must situation is a bonus.
The clubs stance now is if they are not coming through to the U23 by 16/17 then they won’t be kept, if you are in the U23’s at 22 equally your not likley to last. I have never understood when the likes of Enda Stevens were not exactly appalling they didn’t get a chance. Why we call for flash over steady I’ll never know.
I think the call was more or less correct to bring in young players that have big league experience elsewhere but would of equally been behind pay a bit more for some top players closer to jack and McGinns level and use some of the youth. Green, Ohare, and few others would of coped I feel judging by what we have seen but they did need games, tough call.
Sorry about your mobility scooter, as this is barely a 1-2 weeks in. Lets hope it doesn’t turn up in a robbery or a ram raid. You got anyone looking out for you mate?
How are you doing PP? quiet by your standards hope alls well.
I hope people take a bit of time to think what the world will look like after this is over and not surrender to the push for controls for want of a better word. Or maybe even what they would like it to be like. One funny thing for sure is Brexiteers and Remainers are having to rely on each other 😉
Mark
I don’t scoot mate, I drive a car, or I did to get essential supplies.
Rely on each other?
Rely on the Government & councils to protect the vulnerable?
Not so far, except the vulnerable supporting each other, & except the Poles round here, who really understand as they have parents in Poland.
I’d rather envisage help & succour for those unfortunate to be experiencing the illness now, experiencing the fear worldwide, those unfortunates who already bore the weight of suffering & now are left to die, often alone,
& those knowingly risking their health & lives for others.
So far, many of those advocating to focus on the future are deliberately & wilfully ignoring the present with dangerous BS, to the detriment of everybody else.
Do what you can mate.
High MK,
I am still alive and have dropped in occasionally to check on the site, but really have been busy on other fronts, switching off from football in the main, as it will be a very long time before we able to go to Villa Park and watch a game. My estimates from what the medics/scientists around the world are saying, are that we could well be continuing on from this season next March, which would mean completing this season in time for Euro 2021.
This would mean that everything remains in a frozen state for twelve months, including players contracts, sponsorship deals, etc.
In regard to the virus, I fall into all the bad categories, over 70 years old, lung condition and no where near a hospital. Powys does not have a proper hospital, and buys in all its needs.
I am , however, enjoying self isolation with plenty in the garden and the home to occupy me. I am dosing up on YouTube watching old “til death us do part” episodes and stars like Freddie Starr, bringing back the times when we laughed until we cried with all the unPC humour washed down with the odd bottle of Hobgoblin Gold. At the end of this there is fine port, cheese and crackers!!
Hope everyone else is surviving ok, and if conservative estimates are correct, we have lost just over a thousand people, and only have another 19,000 to go before we start to get back to normal….
Just feel so sad for those who are affected, especially our front line staff, who are keeping the country going.
PP
Stay well mate.
My son’s delivering food to the vulnerable in Leominster, I’m impressed.
Mark
One of the lower level symptoms for some appear to be a painful stomach & diarrhea, well into last year.
Well that’s me, then it’s all my fault.
Ian g
Thought that was what boris had permanently diarrhoea especially every time he spoke
Was just reminded its time to be grateful for what we have, not we do not. 20 days unbeaten, no rivals pulling away from us and no injuries.
Look after yourselves !
JG
So it appears, I think it’s another virus
bibulus
You too mate, we’ll probably break a record
IanG- Thanks for that 🙂 I have had the stomach and loose yellow stool thing a few weeks ago mate along with a temp for one day. Consisted of really bad stomach cramps coming on suddenly then feeling rough for a few days, I just did what I always do in those circumstances not eat and it passed. My lady and my mom who’s 77 had the same. We have also had the other symptoms as I said but who knows eh. My Aunt also has been rough for about 8 days with bad chest etc, she’s self isolating and about 75 but seems to be pulling through without having to go to Hospital. Seems to me it is not just a one hit wonder.
I’m signing up for whatevers out there on the driving/ delivery/NHS front , I’m self employed and my work is still going on currently but is much reduced, luckily I have whole houses to myself , good job as no Grant money available until June and then you get “you are 85,000 in the que” when you call them to sign up apparently looking forward to that if it comes to it. I have the feeling that a three month grant will mean years of higher tax etc, we will see.
To be honest I am amazed that the whole world has shut down as much as it has to conserve life as much as is possible. Also amazed that shop staff have not all gone sick, they are exposed daily and don’t get masks etc .
The Mrs works at an old folks home and they have banned talk of it as several are depressives and even she’s showing signs of it getting to her with all the doom and gloom out there whilst trying to show a happy face, she really misses her family too.
One old lady sat through some skyping from family and friends etc on a big screen then stood up and said “we are all going to die” I hope she did it in a Fraser from Dads army way.
Mark
At least it gets you out of the house mate.
I’m locked in, out of sight & out of official mind.
The only people stepping up are the public, as everywhere else they just seem to be shouting “don’t panic”, & then panicking, & then use it against you.
IanG- must me crap mate you can only wonder what the full repercussions will be. I know several farmers have killed themselves as they cannot get their farms audited due to the shut down, at least one nurse has too. In the end the Cure may well be worse than the disease.
I do wonder whether an overreaction by China has set off a chain reaction. The lab in Whuhan had registered the virus on the world data base as a new corona version last year apparently. Without the full facts who knows. Protecting the vulnerable should have been the priority not defcom 1 perhaps. One top German Virologist has said exactly that.
Apparently they can only test for Corona virus not Covid 19 specifically as yet nor the level in the body. People are dying with 2-3 other conditions and being found with Corona which we all will have along with 100’s of other viruses. This then goes down as the cause of death. Also the Rate of death per day has not gone above seasonal average from all cause mortality. If I and many other people (virologists etc) are right and its been here and elsewhere since Dec at least then its encouraging.
Anyways the lower leagues have voided the season, you’d think the prem will have to follow.
Just what we needed – Jack acting like an idiot again. That must finish him as captain (Mings is the ready-made replacement) and I’ve got to say I hope it finishes him as a Villa player, that is if we can still sell him. Relegation’s going to round this season off nicely. I’m so pissed off.
Can’t be to harsh on Jack Myself, he has been in lockdown longer than most. A young lad and an athlete who’s daily life for the past 16 years has been training and banter with mates. Reducing your physical movement has psychological and physiological consequences .
Not to mention playing games, I still miss that so what he is experiencing heaven knows. Hands up who’s never been Young? this I think is a drop in the ocean to what is to come and why Boris was seeking to delay lockdown like the Swedish have. I just hope its worth it, the evidence so far says no.
I’m going to defend Jack. He’s the major reason we’re still in with a shout of avoiding relegation. He has been magnificent.
One night acting like a plank whilst the season is closed down doesn’t change my views. If it puts other clubs off, then that’s brilliant for us. The guy is a diamond. He’s also very young. Cut him some slack.
Yeah, Mark and Plug, I hear what you’re saying and, up to a point, I’d agree. He’s pretty much carried the team this season and, until now, I’d been desperate for Villa to hang onto him. But to prat around at a mate’s house (McCormack, ffs) just hours after publicly urging everyone else to stay home, self-distance, etc, was just so carelessly and arrogantly two-faced, it frankly infuriated me. At 24, I wouldn’t consider him ‘very young’ anymore, though he certainly has an immature streak.
But you make a good point, Mark, about the psychological effects of lockdown on an athlete and, on reflection, my reaction was probably a bit ‘knee-jerk’. I would still relieve him of the captaincy though – I think Tyrone’s a more natural leader anyway. But, so long as he’s read the riot act and realizes how daft he’s been, I’m more than happy for Jack to stay and, like Plug says, if other clubs are put off by this, so much the better! There’s already talk that Man.U. have turned their attentions more to Maddison……….
Vivavilla- No doubt he’s been a prat mate, I think the reality is plenty others have too he just got caught. Look at Neil Kinnocks son driving 200 miles to see his dad from 2m away on his Birthday. Times like these everything seems world ending and everyone’s miffed they can’t get out.
Apropos of nothing in particular …..I did here Sky are losing £30m per week and stating they will withhold the £750m due to he Premier League on completion of the all fixtures if the remaining 92 fixtures aren’t completed by 30th June. Think for a moment the impact on Premier league clubs…
The proposition is to complete all fixtures behind closed doors at venues in the Midlands and London with all matches televised, to give the puplic a lift while on lockdown…..Bearing in mind all sporting events have been cancelled, trooping the colours at the queens birthday, cancelled, Glastenbury..cancelled.
This could the end of he modern game as we know it…..back to Saturday 3.00 pm kick offs ….can’t wait
Sweden have only just stopped their lower leagues playing, they are following the approach we were supposed to of Herd immunity with gradual shutdowns and so far it appears that there is no difference in the virus’s spread.
Mark
Possibly because they didn’t start early enough to take it seriously.
And more concerned about losing money possibly.
Archie
We’ll certainly see how many sheep there are to swallow that.
IanG- No mate they took the same view that our experts did about herd immunity originally. The only reason our lot changed was the London computer model that predicted millions dead and the opposition and media pressure, they have since revised that and other models like Oxfords have predicted far less.
So far no difference death wise etc in approaches that I have seen. Would of helped if the World Health Organisation were not still parroting the Chinese governments insistence it doesn’t pass from human to human back in Jan.
As yet we are still below average death rates for all cause mortality too,and long may that continue. Hope you have your crampons on while climbing the walls.
Mark
I feel like I’ve ate one
IanG- fancy a pint to wash that crampon down?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/traversmark/2020/04/01/why-is-coronavirus-fear-so-low-in-sweden/#6672c2853870
Mark
It’s not the bamboo wall any more, it’s now a body wall.
Mark
Taiwan seems to have learnt a lot from the SARS pandemic when I was there, but they’ve got an advantage with communication system primed for an invasion.
Mark
I don’t mean Dunkerque either, serious weaponry.
Iang- Agree mate all the Countries around China got stung before and likely live in permanent preparedness for the many threats that presents. Taiwan are some clever cookies and need to be, like being a flea on a bears arse.
Testing is the way forward because at present its all knee jerk but also is not foolproof as there is no gold standard and throws up false positives. At present any sign of Covid-19 on death is being recorded as a covid death. Previously if you had say cancer and died while having a cold or flu or respiratory disease the cause of death was recorded as the cancer. so either respiratory disease is more deadly than portrayed or many people are dying as per normal. Not really a great time to be finding out. Germany are testing 1 in 10 which could swing data because if 1 has it they record all have it and visa versa. Its all a mess if viewed scientifically.
Italys had nurses/carers from the EU leave their charges to fend for themselves and went home, it snowballed as they already have huge problems with respiratory disease this season, they also have few crematoriums being catholic hence the bodies in churchs etc.
Its not unusual, Its all very loose, my mates dad died of sepsis and they put something else on the death certificate, he insisted they recorded it properly as Sepsis which they then did. At the moment autopsies are not likely to happen either.
IanG- Also Taiwan are not allowed on the WHO council, the same lot parroting china’s its not passed from person to person rhetoric in Jan. Seems to me they would be the first to get a seat considering what you have pointed out.
The American science guys are now confirming that the virus is actually passed more often from the fine spray we eject when talking to people, which is why the compulsory wearing of face masks in China were so successful in containing the virus in the end.
Sepsis no longer exists, and is now recorded as COPD, in the same way as Asbergers has ben classed as autism.
I used to be a flautist, I hope that isn’t significant
PP- next you’ll be telling me Consumption not around.
I see Sweden and Hamburg are beginning to look at deaths in detail not just looking for Civid and Voila the Covid deaths have halved.
This scientist is worth a listen, I think we will be out of this soon if he’s correct, unfortunately by hiding from it we may extend the season.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGC5sGdz4kg
UK stats in proportion, can we have the football back please 🙂
http://inproportion2.talkigy.com
And so, time ticks on. The EPL have kicked the can down the road. We’re all in lock down. Playing behind closed doors is against the social distancing rule. Should the season restart, teams will need a period of training to get fit again.
Anybody prepared to offer a restart date? Approximately?
Plug
Next year?
Plug if the world remains as it is until June then it will have to be next August, and thats if the present strategy doesn’t throw up a second wave of Hysteria come Sept/oct.
Another thing, if the players all drop their wages the Government will lose a huge chunk of Tax. There are not any easy ways out of this is we are going to go the whole 9 yards. My savings account just went from 0.25% to 0.01% interest with a letter saying if we can be of any help etc 🙂 I suppose I should be grateful its not in the minuses yet.
Mark – Me too, we’re all in it together apparently
IanG- word is trickling in from friends about their financials, one rents out a couples of flats in Brighton and a few rooms gone from earning him £1500 a month to costing him £4k. Another has a garage, his outlay is 5K to keep running a month, mechanics are at home drinking beer paid by the government he is left to stump up 5k with no work, the only chance he had was doing MOT’s and Government gave everyone a 6 month MOT holiday, he will probably fold next month latest. Me I am waiting on firms to pay for work I have done previously that have mysteriously gone offline and any new work has to be paid for upfront in the building trade as nobody will take the risk, and so its all quiet on the western front.
What a mess we have created.
A mess indeed MK. Bill Gates has said overnight that he doesn’t think large gatherings will take place until a vaccine for Covid-19 is available. That’s unlikely to be available until late next year he thinks.
I agree that large gatherings are unlikely to happen until some form of real protection from the virus is available. Don’t know about late next year, but it looks for all the world like we won’t be seeing any footie for many months. This season is blown.
Plug- Bill gates that makes a lot of money from Vaccines? chances are bud theres a whole lot of people already immune, Many have had little to no symptoms, the longer it goes on the more Incredulous I am.
Mark
The problem for the future appears to be the asymptomatic spreading it.
The rest of the bungling with or without any nefarious agendas, is atrocious, both here & remarkably similarly, the us.
A breeding ground for conspiracy theories & getting an understanding & running with it & forgetting to allow change. It’s commonly called a projection.
I don’t know which is worse.
Hey JG, Ireland is a lighter colour to the UK on the corona chart, hope you’re OK.
IanG- Some see that as the norm for any cold or flu and a necessity or we do this ad infinitum, Most colds/flu’s etc change over two months so waiting for a vaccine seems nuts . The worst part for me has been ignoring/suppressing science or opposing views, many dissenting voices from top scientists and doctors have been ignored and the fear factor whipped up ( a threat in itself) . Just like the Global warming situation politics have taken over.
The Lockdown vs the some contact countries just don’t stack up in favour of a lockdown such as we have. Death rates are shown as Covid only and not against the normal backdrop of daily deaths. Some 62 million die of all causes each year, less than 100,000 at this point attributed to Covid 19 and many of those will be very ill people who may or may not have died of it, the whole thing stinks, measles is ten times more virulent and killed 142,000 last year.
I get the not overwhelming the Hospitals but thats what standard flu season does most years. And putting Covid19 patients into hospitals just produces more Covid suspected deaths via transfer to the already dying. Ill people are now being moved to Old folks homes from Hospitals, that should go well then.
Normally the media and government are not on the trusted list these days yet here we are hanging on every word.
Forget conspiracy, I’m seeing mass hysteria and stupidity, The king has new clothes. Doesn’t help anyone who gets it I know mate and I feel for them
Ian g
All very quite here,lockdown happened 8/9 earlier here than boris allowed,we have holiday homes empty when we went to bed, full when we get up which has led to 24 hour checkpoints set up,missing football, or any sport on the plus side weather is beautiful, down side ireland is going broke by the hour
Mark
Congrats on seeing the mass hysteria & stupidity that’s been here for millenium, normal service has been resumed then.
JG
Yeah they’re everywhere, & it’s all about them.
The weather helps & the air hasn’t been this clean for decades, take care of of yourself mate.
IanG- Can’t disagree mate, I had hoped the fuckwittery was only skin deep but appears not. Give it another week.
Mark
I’m going the other way, I’m going to shave my beard off.
IanG- I’m building myself for a bit of 2m conga down at Aldi’s car park, its all the rage.
I’d leave the beard on you might have to knit it into a mask.
I think there is a program due on the BBC tonight where some doctors give the latest on the Virus. One thing they have looked at is distancing, apparently 2m is not enough 🙂 So with that in mind nobody has been isolated for the entire episode unless your in an underground bunker. And we should be washing our parcels etc. This surely has to be good news as we are on the whole still here.
Not going to join in the great conspiracy theories which are filling the internet, or the blame game, except to say that our government seems to be full of saying that we are supplying the needs of doctors and nurses, but the BMA is saying that they are not, so lets hope they get it right soon.
America certainly seems to be clearing the streets of New York of the homeless, and I expect this also true elsewhere, as they bury them in mass graves. Many of the sick and aged are also being culled, as the virus flies through care homes across Europe, and some may feel that this is a blessing in disguise, as social care is one of the biggest drains on government funds.
Smokers too, appear to be high on the list, as does a male predominance, so all in all, pretty well stacked against us older ones.
On the much brighter side, the air is getting cleaner, wildlife on the planet is improving, and so it seems, the weather is back to the 1960’s.
Football, well not a lot to say, except that most footballers seem to be doing more than playing their part, John Terry making a huge donation to the NHS campaign, and many others doing similar things, or giving their time to volunteer.
PP
The UK Government knew we were unprepared for a pandemic & had regular warnings of this, & unlike Germany, parts of Scandinavia, plus Taiwan & others, did little about it, resulting in needless death.
This is not a blame game or a conspiracy theory, but verifiable fact, & accountability is an essential part of even a pseudo democratic government .
I’m also personally not concerned about what the government says so much as what they actually do now, if anything.
Like you I’m in the throwaway category, & when you add disability as an extra, where we are used to being used as scapegoats & denied resources to our detriment, it’s not nice.
This did not start with the virus, but the virus has amplified it because of the usual pattern of power plus the unusual level of incompetence in our current & last governments.
Despite the media stating that vulnerable people are mostly all being looked after, no vulnerable person I know has heard from anyone, with one exception, which is being informed that understandably hospital appointments are cancelled.
We unfortunately keep hearing government statements stating the opposite, although families have had to step up.
Unfortunately there are many oldies like me without this backup, & I don’t know one who has heard from anyone, either officials, charities or neighbours.
I live in a 95% pakistani area, & many are not taking it seriously, with the mothers, daughters & kids going shopping all together with no protection, in fact few wear protective gear.
If you’re a muslim there’s more chance of outreach because of the usual interaction, & if you’re not one hard luck.
This is not particularly racist, just not very bright or humanitarian either.
In Kings Norton [a more normal ethnic mix] all the kids are out playing together every day, so no virus protection there either.
It really is a pandumbic.
Stay well.
Not a soul about here in west Birmingham
The only people you see during the hour exercise walk are other couples or family groups with everyone being very cautious
This thing will pass
I really don’t see completing the prem league behind closed doors being possible unless it’s non contact
Regarding AVFC the club needs a strong manager in post DS is a nice guy and that’s the problem
Reminds me of Tony Barton, remember him
IanG + PP- I don’t think the Government could prepare in as much as PPE has a shelf life so can’t be indefinitely stockpiled. France supply us and they fulfilled their own needs over ours, refusing orders that go back months. China also did a behind doors hoovering up of the worlds supplies. Even America have taken supplies meant for Germany. Also the supposed refusal of ventilators from the EU is bollocks, that never happened it just turns out the EU haven’t got theirs either because the supply is slow coming. Building Our own was a smart move.
As late as late Jan the World Health Organisation were repeating China’s claim it does not spread through humans. The whole world was caught out and I think WHO needs to be booted by the looks with countries being excluded on request of others.
They have my sympathy but those at risk are always at risk from pneumonia, flu , colds etc and the health services are always overrun in flu season. Then when a child dies its greeted with shock when kids die every year of the flu (125 in america this year) and you never hear of it.
As yet we are not seeing a huge rise in deaths overall just the focused repeating of Corona numbers. 2017/18 in America 800K hospitalised with flu and 60k died, I would like to see if that is still the case this year with Covid deaths on top making it much worse or is this just business as usual looked at with a Covid hat on?
The same Old peoples home that locked down in Nov 19 has now got it again, I would not be surprised if in actuality there is little to be done as with all respiratory disease. Cold air in the lungs allows the temperature to drop enough for the virus to replicate so the warmer weather will help. As I said a month ago its been here longer than two months, more like 4.
IanG- Asians are the same my way the mrs says they won’t give a damn. I would of thought keeping the economy ticking over and using the money to protect and provide for those most at risk would make sense. Offer still stands by the way if you need anything.
Anyway on a lighter note the world population is still growing.
One thing this Virus has shown up is peoples relative health. Modern drugs pretty much all lower immunity, Statins lower cholesterol which is needed for white blood cells and indeed all your cells membranes. The modern diet and government food pyramid is deeply flawed and causes much inflammation. So I for one am not surprised by the appearance of a Virus that exploits that weakness be it natural or man made.
If your going to take vits then VitD with K2 plus vit C and Zinc which are all involved in preventing lung problems, Zinc stops Viral replication. They are being used around the world as support by many health practitioners.
Archie- It makes me chuckle when I see that players can’t make contact when we have folks walking around supermarkets not keeping their distance and picking up and putting stuff down. Biggest threat for athletes is their drop in immune system after a game. Even then they are unlikely to die. I do wonder how History will look back on this time though.
Mark, every crisis creates an opportunity.
I have no doubt some sharp wheeler dealers will make a shed load of money out of this.
Anyway we’re all on gardening leave for the time being
Archie- Defo mate, the sale of home gym gear for one and alcohol for another, and the prices in the shops have gone up hmmm. I wonder who will get all the businesses that go under. Oh and netflix 🙂
Mark
Talking of netflix, the BBC split from netflix just in time for the lock down.
Didn’t bother.
The facts were known in january, & the WHo scenario was roundly criticised at the time as incorrect, but it will doubtless be used as an excuse.
Even if there is a hint of [whatever], any government needs to act as well as already be aware of negative possibilities & be prepared.
The problem is the conflict of interest/self interest intruding, which always slows things down, & has become the new norm with little accountability.
It was done deliberately, with the sell off of & fragmentation of much of the NHS a prime example, which is why even more the need for accountability.
This virus was the fly in the ointment, & now anyone with eyes can see it.
Or rather, in the land of the blind the one eyed man is king.
Mark – Appreciate it mate, but you wouldn’t get 20 miles as things stand.
I’m ok for now, but it’s going to be a long haul.
stay well
Hopefully there’ll be some football at some point.
Archie – chaos theory to a T.
IanG- No doubt the world had known that one day something like this could happen but I have to say that the knee jerk reaction has been out of proportion to the problem. Health services worldwide general reaction to a very old person with 2-3 health issues getting flu, pneumonia etc has been palliative care not ICU and a ventilator because to be frank their chances are very poor to zero, this is no different yet the reaction is.
What puzzles me is why, is it the media exposure? pressure on politicians to save everyone? we have been treated to a look inside our medical care system and the demand to preserve life at the cost of the economy is extraordinary considering the ramifications. If they really could not care about old people why are they scoring what appears to be an own goal? Its like for the 1st time people are seeing that people die of respiratory diseases and they are using it.
I’m not a fan of our health systems as they are more disease preserving for a price over health repairing and health building. There are many better than the NHS around the world and they cost money. I would prefer us to put money into health building rather than life extension without quality of life but hey I’m not ill.
You might find this interesting, its a guy from Switzerland that gathers all the news articles around the world that don’t seem to make the mainstream media that I have seen, or at least without being told to shut up. He updates it , it goes back to March the 14.
https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
This is a funny one, because I do see all sides of the issue.
The reason this was treated differently are the transmission and mortality rates. Both much worse than the flu. And although the effectiveness can vary dramatically from year to year, there is a flu vaccine, which provides some help to vulnerable populations.
Because of the very fast spread, the obvious concern was overwhelmed health systems. You’ve got your base rate of flu, heart attack, pneumonia, whatever, and then you add a possibly huge number of critical cases to that load, and all sorts of people die who wouldn’t otherwise, whether from COVID-19 or other causes.
I think the single most accurate thing I’ve read is that “It will only seem like we overreacted if it works.”
And no one was going to say, “let’s just let all the old and compromised die.” If this hit children, instead…?
The other thing to bear in mind is that it’s likely to come back and will almost inevitably mutate. What we’ve learned from this round, if anyone’s paying attention, will help with the next round. And I think almost inevitably, something more lethal will come along in the future.
But are there huge economic costs? Absolutely. Just really no good answers, no playbook. All you have are the doctors and epidemiologists modeling from best to worst case. And worst case would’ve been tragic on an epic scale. No one was going to roll the dice and let it run through the population unchecked. You see in New York what can happen, and the Chinese were worried enough to fence in entire cities. If NYC hadn’t shut down, for example, the toll there probably would’ve been staggering. And you’re never going to get anywhere near the real number from China.
Hell, we won’t even know until we do a look-back with the average all-cause mortality rate baseline compared to when we’re on the other side. We’ll never know the actual scale of infection, and probably won’t be able to differentiate a lot of deaths. At the current moment, the mortality rate in NYC for the last 31 days is double the usual.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city
Mark
A main point is that politicians by their mo are always manipulating & are rarely completely truthful, often using the truth as a lie in my experience.
Truth is dependent on motivation, otherwise it just has the appearance of truth, & the pecking order underlies it, which is why for the last 10 years they have asset stripped the country & shared the money, & the NHS is a good example.
If people think that this is the norm so therefore it’s ok to lie, the new norm, they really are looking at the shiny shiny, as the establishment usually look after their money before other people, but we have been well trained.
Government by the people for the people???
Anybody else doing what they often do would be nicked for scamming.
Conspiracy theories are also usually lies because of the agendas, & are symptomatic, but truth can sometimes pop out by accident.
If you remember 1984, where lies are the new truth, & truth is the new lie.
In amongst this you have people trying to be human in the present that has been increasingly dodgy since before the virus.
I noticed the pritti smirker basically saying that she was sorry that people FELT that things weren’t up to scratch in the preparedness stakes, a backhanded non apology if I ever heard one.
You couldn’t make it up.
JC
I really don’t think it is about sides, that is a result not a cause.
If you have an overview then it’s all one thing with various inequalities as the divider, & they are magnified by a crisis where we’re definitely not all in it together.
The problem in the states is that corruption & blatant highway robbery is the new truth, & justice & accountability is the new lie, & they’re coining it.
Here it’s more subtle, with puppets in power, who couldn’t spell ethical,
with the chaos as the new divider.
They’ve been been working at it like beavers for 10 years, demonising countless unfortunates to distract, many of whom are now classed as vulnerable or deceased, & in a sense the virus is a relief from that, but we’ll unfortunately probably end up in a worse position.
Fait accompli, then along comes the virus, & lo & behold, the emperor with no clothes.
I’d rather the Villa’s owners run things, I’d have more confidence in them.
In the meantime, people are becoming a little more human, which says a lot.
I look forward to next season…
Mark
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/uk-government-giving-incorrect-information-144200848.html
Confusion?
IanG,
What I was trying to say is that I understand staying closed versus opening, herd immunity vs. flattening the curve. Economic cost vs. mortality cost. Economic cost causing deaths. No good answers, but for once it’s a situation where, given so many unknowns, I can’t say I feel an absolute certainty about the right way to go about things.
The situation definitely has disproportionate impacts by first-, second-, third-world; rich-poor; race; occupation.
And yes, this is all definitely an excuse for an erosion of liberties (see Hungary). The Republican party in the states is dedicated to maintaining minority rule of white Christians, and will lie, cheat, steal, disenfranchise, and abandon every principle of religious faith and the constitution to do so. Frankly, I would take up arms.
These are frightening times for too many reasons.
And I should say as a general announcement:
You all know I don’t make any money off this (just spend some), so I’m not worried about driving traffic through transfer speculation, “On this day” bits, all of that. Maybe I should, but there seem to be plenty of people doing that already.
And to be quite honest, I do have my mind on other things. Football will or won’t come back this summer or this fall based on all sorts of factors we have no control over. And anyone pretending to have answers about how this plays out is throwing darts.
Anyway. I’ll try to get a fresh page up for the sake of less scrolling, etc. I’ve no idea what I’ll find important, atm, but I do think the frenzy around finishing the season is a bit ludicrous. I know it needs to be discussed, the money, liabilities, all the rest, but there are far more important things.
JC-
D’accord
Hi JC, glad to see your alive 🙂
I can see the damned if you do damned if you don’t argument especially with the distrust of the Chinese Government. Unfortunately there is no evidence that social distancing works either. With absolutely no way of telling if the Virus has moved through the population or has always been present, discovering a virus doesn’t mean its new. To add to complications when you have a cold/flu you likely have more than a few all having a nibble plus microbes. The buggers don’t wait their turn so it makes the “died of” question very difficult without autopsy. I think Hospitals are the worst place to be in all this except for those who’s treatments have been cancelled and may die because of it.
I came across this article on the link I put up earlier and it Ties in the Fear/panic/anxiety/loss of social contact into the whole scenario.
To me it looks like , take a new flu, announce it as deadly especially to xyz , cause wide scale panic by inappropriate action and take away your support (friends and family) . Use the heart strings to keep people pulling in the same direction (you wouldn’t want to kill granny). Increase the distrust of strangers and even your own ( I have noticed this as you walk down the street, some won’t even nod at you). Give a description out that basically could be any cold or Flu and describe that it feels like your drowning for extra horror. Take away peoples livelihood or make them redundant and create an uncertain world suddenly. And of course predictions of the millions that will die if we don’t xyz.
Now ordinarily we would sleep walk through a flu season with old folk dying by the thousands and even kids teens etc and not blink an eye. We are all now hyper focused on every death even though 2.6 million die from RTI’s each year.
Now the article points out the research being done on Cytokines ( as in the cytokine storm reported in this disease) they have linked excess production to Fear/anxiety . Basically your mind can make things a whole lot worse. Interesting perspective considering the constant fear mongering from the media without the expected mortality overall. It will likely kill a few more normal directly or indirectly because of disruption (not to add suicide etc).
I mentioned a mate on here that was diagnosed last year with anxiety which turned out to be low grade Pneumonia, same symptoms, different prognosis and treatment.
Also it may point to why this Flu is so discriminatory, Kids get it and don’t think about it, Teens and under 65’s have been told they will be fine so again less stressed. Prior to the Chinese lockdown and brutal coverage the world looked very different.
https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/07/think-deep-do-good-science-and-do-not-panic/
JC- Just to add, Cytokines particularly the ones in this instance are inflammatory, most ill people are inflamed, people on the western standard diet (High Carb, sugar, veg oil, Omega 6 rich) and lifestyle, especially overweight, obese, diabetic, heart probs etc are all inflamed.
IanG- I saw that article and I am not surprised as much of the NHS’s patient information is not on one database or even all on a computer system.
I agree on governments, but they are people/actors pretending they know whats best for a whole lot more people they supposedly serve that also think they know whats best. Maybe we deserve each other.
The likely winners/contenders in all this.
Corporations, the small firms will go to the wall increasing their share even more.
China is pushing its new silk road with USA trying to prevent it, wouldn’t hurt to cripple the west a bit and expand into the middle east and Africa further.
And I’m sure at some point we will be bailing out the Banks, various firms and more out until we are all destitute and ready for a hand out.
I don’t think WHO are an innocent party either with massive backing from the Pharmaceuticals and Mr Gates being the biggest donor. Have we used those Swine flu vacs yet 🙂
https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2020/04/14/world-health-organization-pandemic-planning.aspx?cid_source=dnl&cid_medium=email&cid_content=art1HL&cid=20200414Z2&et_cid=DM508250&et_rid=850335059
Mark
I put it down to confused.com:]
Mark
I don’t think diet is high up on the list at the moment, too busy worrying mate.
But I see no change in the pecking order either.
It should be interesting to see if the nurses get a pay rise, although probably a crap medal as it’s cheaper.
IanG- well my mrs is a carer and certainly will get naff all, They are about to move two Covid 19 patients into her care home from another and the Nurses will have PPE while dealing with them, the staff get nothing along with the residents. I can’t see what could go wrong with that plan. If You don’t hear from me theres some beer in my fridge, its yours.
Oh forgot Bloomberg associate about 40,000 lost lives for every 1% unemployment over the next six years in America I presume thats about 600k at present levels of 13%. If this lock down goes on then the trade off is not money for lives anymore.
Take a look at the movement around the world as this progressed its likely that Europe gave it to America but also look at the number of times its already mutated, I don’t think waiting for a vaccine will cut it .
https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global
I forgot: Dreamt last night that we beat Sheffield 5-0 and ensured survival.
JC
You’ll be a prophet next
mark
Thanks I’ve just had a Homer moment.
Mark
They don’t seem to have counted the Care Home deaths in the figures, they are estimating that the total is 20% light. Bit like the employment etc figures. Kittens & little baa lambs would get more outrage sadly.
IanG- Have you written a great odyssey story or just gone Doh?
On deaths, Even then they are not distinguishing between of and with, seems an obvious thing but its standard protocol when they are expecting you to die anyway to say cancer etc. Now the mere wiff of Covid and its on the report despite the fact they have all the other coronas and nasties aboard.
Sadly as I said before they have suddenly discovered people die a lot what a shock to the system.
Bit of good news maybe, a non vaccine potential cure/treatment.
https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2020/04/15/coronavirus-antibodies.aspx?cid_source=dnl&cid_medium=email&cid_content=art1HL&cid=20200415Z2&et_cid=DM508251&et_rid=851011082
JC- get to the doctors your delirious
Ha…alive and kicking, MK, no fever dreams. A bit distracted and more than a bit tired of the distancing/isolation, though.
I think overall, it’s going to the be the case that we just won’t know what’s what for quite a while. Simply too many unknowns.
Not a bad summary of what we may be looking at in the coming weeks and months (I think the link will work):
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-summer-coronavirus-reopening-back-normal/609940/
JC- looks likely mate especially now the social distancing button was pressed, the worlds in a mess and some government justifying will drag this out. Not convinced this is the monster its been painted as and we cannot hide indefinitely, I don’t think that is even possible. How can the entire world visit supermarkets etc and avoid an invisible thing? in the end if we don’t get 50% herd immunity it will be the gift that keeps on giving, god help us if they find another new virus.
Its become about what we have focused on more than a this has never happened before. I think if we had let it ride we would be no worse off and a whole lot less poor and oblivious as we usually are. I definitely think it was doing the rounds way earlier and nobody knew.
Rather than look for that “cure” we should be looking at why the Virus got lucky and why it causes what it does. The metabolic state of people is the answer, Obese, Diabetic, pre-diabetic are all at risk and will be proven to be those in hospitals, along the inevitable older and very sick people.
When I see a death where the person had no known illness I just smile as nobody tests your health when your on a ventilator , I have seen so many pictures of the Nursing staff that have died too and they are all carrying some timber. I have seen Bodybuilders with it with the exclamation “see it can hurt anyone”. trouble is they are just as likely to be pre-diabetic along with athletes that cram in the food and become insulin resistant.
I hope we shift the focus to health after this otherwise I think we could get a real problem hit, god knows our food and health systems kill enough of us but people seem prefer a slow death they don’t see coming. This is a wake up call for us and its not that Viruses are dangerous.
Mark
Can’t remember I drank the beer.
When are you declaring independence at your gaff?
JC
Dream on mate, it might come true
Mark
I’m surprised we’re all still alive then, think of all those years when we didn’t know we had a problem:]
Mark – it’s like a boxing match over 3 rounds, & this is round 1.
Now in Italy they’ve found that once someone has tested negative, they thought they were immune, but there is a rising number who then test positive again weeks later & are infectious.
Devious little bugger this virus.
IanG- The Mrs won’t let me declare independence.
Well if you can’t get immune then what are we doing? I would say that this is true of pretty much all Flu’s/viruses, old/ill people that get a flu jab still get the flu and die. This one has mutated 4-5 times already, its something we live with constantly all we can do is be as robust as we can.
Also if correct then way more people than suspected have come in contact with it and we are still here.
The test is very hit and miss too reportedly adding to the is it isn’t it scenario.
The Mrs is getting tested next week so It will be interesting to see what comes up as she hasn’t been ill since xmas.
As with all this there are claims and counter claims
“In a new article, the Swiss chief physician for infectiology, Dr. Pietro Vernazza, explains that the alleged lack of immunity formation in Covid19 is a matter of „rare individual cases or even just clues“, which „on closer inspection do not pose a problem“, but which are „exaggerated and hastily dished up as shocking news“ by some media.”
All the figures/info are pointing to this being easily past among people but not at all lethal to the vast majority. One chap puts the death rate at Normal as in those that are dying had a high probability of doing so. If anything it has crammed a lot of dying into a short period.
https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196
Saw one article from 4 years back that had deaths from air pollution in China at around 4,000 a day! stats like that really put this into perspective. North Italy is supposedly the worst in Europe.
I’m not alone 🙂
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/to-understand-covid-we-need-evidence-scepticism-and-vigorous-debate
JC- would like your opinion on this its a video from a doctor explaining the death certificate procedures they are told to use with Covid. Its a very revealing I will be surprised if it stays up long. Several doctors in Europe have been referred to mental hospitals for speaking against the governments policy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0lIWZpiRU0
And finally Vit c and Vit D being recognised as genuine approaches to this, in reality it should be the norm in RIT’s.
https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2020/04/07/coronavirus-treatment.aspx
IanG- you mentioned care homes a while back, it looks like with the figures from Europe that 40-60% of the deaths were in care homes.
https://ltccovid.org/2020/04/12/mortality-associated-with-covid-19-outbreaks-in-care-homes-early-international-evidence/
Mark
But not in the figures in GB
IanG – Three ladies have been moved to her Home from another home with Covid recently but she has heard little about other homes being effected as yet mate, If there are as many deaths as there have been apparently in European homes it seems likely to be similar. They have been told not to listen to the media as its bollocks. The biggest problem is residents not understanding why they can’t see their family.
There has been no panic or orders from above particularly where she is and other homes in the same group. It appears what we are told is different to the reality. There are a few places with it but as yet no great death toll that she’s heard, certainly no worse than there normally is. She is puzzled herself what the fuss is. They have all been tested now and don’t have it. Doesn’t mean that they haven’t had it only that they don’t now.
Elsewhere something like 40% of UK hospital beds are empty as so much has been cancelled, I assume as they await the onslaught. All seems fishier than a Spanish trawler.
MK,
Haven’t watched it all yet, but…
An internal medicine doctor from Montana being introduced by a pastor? Not saying she isn’t a great physician, but she’s hardly an expert. At the same time, doesn’t mean she’s wrong. But. People in Montana, Idaho, Wyoming…Well, they tend to be rather ‘eccentric’ in some of their positions and politics. It’s a big part of why they go live in the middle of nowhere. If I saw an ER physician in NYC saying it’s all BS, I’d take that a little more seriously.
What I will say is that I don’t think this is a conspiracy in terms of serving government control, etc. I don’t think medical experts around the world (including one who was a fraternity brother of mine at university, is one of the top pulmonologists in the world, and Chief of Pulmonology at Johns Hopkins Hospital) are intentionally lying or exaggerating. My friend’s been at the hospital 24/7 for weeks now. And he normally sees all the worst and rarest respiratory cases in the nation and world. As he says, “If I’m called into your case, you’re screwed.” He’s extremely liberal, anti-authoritarian, all the rest. He’s very concerned, and has been for a while.
The big thing we’re all saying is that it’s simply the case that no one knows. It’s been too big, too fast, and we won’t know the real story for quite a while. Uncertainty, fear and anxiety want answers, and we’ll hear a lot of them. Most will be wrong.
As I said earlier, probably the most reliable indicator of potential scope will be comparing the baseline all-cause mortality rate over several years or comparable periods against this one, once it plays out. Like I said earlier, over 30 days, NYC’s mortality rate was more than double the baseline. Ecuador says they have 173 COVID deaths, but a five-fold increase in deaths in Guayaquil.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/world/americas/coronavirus-Ecuador-guayaquil.html
So something’s going on. Now, I don’t disagree with the doc in the video about how patients are coded. There’s often a lot of judgment involved when it’s not obvious (like a car crash or cancer), and to your points, you could say the actual cause of death for any given person ultimately was poverty, or bad genes. Poor lifestyle choices. And many of the deaths we’re seeing will be from something else because COVID patients had to be hospitalized. This was always predicted and understood. Hence the lockdowns. No reason someone in their 50s should die from a heart attack caused by a faulty valve that could have been treated, and they’d have gone on to live another 20-30 productive years with their family.
All kinds of ways to look at it, and from a public health perspective, I agree entirely that wellness is the proper focus. And as medicine advances, we do come to understand things about immune system response and inflammation, for example.
In my day job, I run publishing for a disease-specific association. Lifestyle modification and self-care are huge emphases for both prevention and mitigation. Education, management, nutrition, all that.
There are people out there saying they can cure all kinds of things. But they can’t, because a cure would be irrefutable and adopted. You can’t stop/hide something like that, however powerful big pharma or anything else is. Some things work for some people, different things for others. Disease progresses differently based on all sorts of factors. The variables are huge.
JC- thanks I thought you would say something like that about her 🙂 Its the bit she reads from the official how to report covid that sounds very similar to whats happens in the UK. As a scientific method to accumulate data it looks poor to me.
I don’t think anyone’s lying either (apart from China’s initial fib) plenty of big name doctors, virologists etc all are questioning the protocol more from a stand point of using a sledge hammer to crack a nut. I’m not a great fan of modelling when the Data is unreliable and possibilities so varied.
I agree until we see the overall death rate for the year maybe or the Flu season its hard to judge other than the number of deaths look light to me for the level of official panic. Of course you then have to adjust for lack of deaths from other causes that will have inevitably have gone missing, plus traffic accidents, suicides, murder, people missing treatment etc.
When it hit it was said to be both deadly and easily transmissible, I thought if that were true there will be nobody left. Bumping off the hosts not a great trait if you want to survive and spread as a virus assuming it does. So I am thinking easily spread but average unless the conditions are right. Your right there are so many variables, location, air quality and base health, available care, Med use, and men are dying more than women.
Sweden is a funny one though as they have the same death rate as the UK with no lockdown, I’m guessing small population largish country though you’d expect more of them to get it regardless with the contact.
Have you seen the research on seed/veg oils and diabetes? apparently the graph from their introduction is identical to the rise in Diabetes/insulin resistance which partly lets carbs off the hook. Because they oxidise so easily our mitochondria can’t use them and then demand sugar to survive and hey presto, Plus our cell walls are weakened which sounds perfect for a virus.
There is research about to be done on the carnivore diet I think at Harvard? as so many have reported long standing immune problems just going away along with all biomarkers improving.
Let me know if you come across anything juicy I like to keep my ear to the ground 🙂
IanG- found this
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/uk-care-home-providers-report-521-coronavirus-deaths
Thing is I read France have 640k beds available in care homes, don’t know how full they are but even so if you put it at 10,000 deaths in care homes and say they have 500k residents thats 490k of at risk people surviving and lets face it they are not a hot bed of health.
For it to be a scam they’ve got to know what they’re doing.
Numbers interpretation will also depend on how many were properly protected from infection, so numbers have a limited value, & basically they just say, a lot.
It really doesn’t equate with flu, as you don’t get so many hospitalised at once, or so many infected so quick usually, or so badly, & it doesn’t normally kill the medical staff, so a false equivalence.
Anyway, you really don’t need to investigate [unless it’s your profession], as it’s as clear as day that something stinks, so let them tell you.
Trump confesses all the time, they can’t help it.
Trump & Trump light Boris, have basically got their egos in the way for a month, & then made it a lot worse than it should have been from then on, & then magnified that by trying to spin it for their benefit as they realised that it had got out of hand.
As many have said, now is not the time for self serving politics, especially at the sharp end.
They will fuck up royally anyway unfortunately, so we are just left with the distractions they send the way of the gullible, which can be entertaining, but deadly.
As a senior banking guy said about the latest distraction of bringing up the Brexit date again, & saying that we are still leaving at the end of the year, even with all this stuff going on, & basically he said why on earth would you want to do that?, in the middle of the coming worst depression for many decades, to add another one?
He has a point, but unfortunately I don’t think it will wake them up from making their name for posterity, at the expense of everyone else.
They don’t actually care beyond their own reality.
And it won’t wake the sheeple up either, unless it hits them on the nose.
MK,
To be fair to her, I do have to go through the whole thing. But I know my ears are partly closed because response to this seems to largely align with political beliefs. In ‘red’ states, they’re behaving very differently, want to validate Trump and all their ‘government is the problem’ business. They just don’t want to be wrong, don’t want to admit the idiot they put in charge is an idiot because that makes them idiots.
They’ll also expect unemployment benefits, top-class medical care they can’t afford, subsidies, and all the rest that government provides when they do get sick. In ‘blue’ states, they’ve been much harder hit because they have the big cities and density. They’re also the ones willing to pay. It’s very close to being two different countries, bottom line.
When I’ve got all the top people from Hopkins, Harvard, Yale, Stanford and the rest telling me to take it seriously and that the measures aren’t disproportionate? I’m simply not seeing anywhere near a proportional number of similarly highly regarded experts disagreeing with them. There are different views about how we go forward, etc., based on what’s possible and/or necessary, but I’d have to go looking very hard to find dissent. And I only read from sources that will promote dissenting views with any degree of credibility. I began life a very staunch conservative. And I’m the polar opposite now.
Here’s an interesting bit, I think it will be available. Basically, it’s looking like the US and GB (or Trump and Boris) have done the worst jobs possible from what we know so far:
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/us-coronavirus-outbreak-out-control-test-positivity-rate/610132/
IanG- As it appears that most deaths are in hospitals and care homes, As they deal with this stuff daily you have to assume those places are being the most careful? or at least they should be anyway.
As I pointed out sadly those staff that lose their lives have followed the same trends old or not exactly healthy on the whole. The definition of health really needs a look at. Not long back they put the average blood sugar level up because it was now the new normal, great standard setting there.
One bright spark from Israel has crunched the numbers and said that regardless of the tactics used this Virus runs through a six week cycle in every country.
I’m not sure I care anymore mate either, even outside of politics people are what they are and when the pressures on that isn’t much despite virtue signalling till their arms fall off.
JC
I can’t but agree about the mirage called politics.
If reality hits you in the face it’s a bit pointless, especially as the relevance of the politics game, as opposed to managing an issue, is debatable, but the habit is deep.
It always was about money & power, the biggest mirages of all.
Plus of course it’s far from ‘we’re all in it together’.
On both sides of the Atlantic we’re suffering from an attack on intelligence, ethics & our humanity, which is where a positive response to anything comes from.
Mark – disease in general follows the weakest, which shows you what the real lack of focus is here.
There are always exceptions to a rule who survive, so it’s not a golden rule, more an indicator of possibilities, as young & fit people have died also.
We need to just care without being sucked in more than we can help.
On one level I can’t take it seriously, but I care about the
– suffering.
Ah virtue!
Mark
I’ve finally had the pakistani locals remember I’m here, but they want me to be one of them & join their club.
I have to work hard at not offending them or their virtue, so I’m on my own along with all the others in the same boat.
Nothing new there.
The virus has done for Norman Hunter sadly.
Ron Wylie left us also, but on his own terms not down to the virus apparently.
RIP Ron, some of us remember.
If you read this JL, if you need anything get in touch.
JC- Trust me over here the lets forget Brexit happened brigade are in full swing along with kicking the government for any perceived misdemeanour in case the jobs not hard enough. I don’t mind debate or concern but its all guns blazing with next to no real evidence every day, as if 3 1/2 years of Brexit wasn’t enough. I do wonder what ist like to be perfect 🙂
If this was a war we would of defeated ourselves already. As IanG said a banker from the IMF has chirped up about Brexit, Well the IMF have had a love affair with the EURO for years so no surprise. Who do you trust? not a clue. The UK paid £20m for a few million tests that were all useless the other day so I think logistics are playing a part.
Never been that bothered with politics, Family working class so all labour, I do remember with a smile my dads stories about the Union meetings and how he used to laugh at most of the suggestions and ideas brought up by a enthusiastic few. Seems to me the right people rarely get into positions of power, mainly as they don’t want to, that should be the 1st qualification for me. I take the Bruce Lee route to politics, take whats useful and forget the rest.
I have a slight mistrust of the Medical system I must confess, They buggered up my Knee op and put me in hospital for a week on a drip and cost me a job in the fire brigade by setting my thumb in the wrong position. Most ailments I have had to sort out myself which is why I came to study all things nutrition and wellness. In the last ten years the Knowledge has exploded but the medical crowd (MD’s) are way behind mostly. Some doctors are catching on which is good and a fair few now take a more holistic view.
I haven’t seen anyone saying whether patients have died from lung related issues or have basically died from other issues and have Covid without developing lung issues? it doesn’t seem to get mentioned yet seems the simplest difference to me. It would go a long way either way to sifting the numbers.
The Mrs Son and daughter in law are in New York, they have had a dose of something but are fine probably two of the uncounted.
I don’t know what counts as an expert that counts but heres a few that look quite experty.
https://www.europereloaded.com/twenty-two-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic-videos-scientific-common-sense/
IanG- they are just seeing if you are worth eating
I’m not so sure about the fit young people bit mate most I have seen have had underlying issues later dug up. As I said what passes for health these days? Apparently 70 % of American youngsters would not pass the Armies health and fitness base requirements. Be surprised if ours are different.
Heres a cheerful link, the death rates for the 1st 14 weeks in the UK. Deaths are up over the last 5 years in comparison but its not necessarily from Covid 19. Quite a lot might just be because of the approach apparently. There was an article in the times to that effect but I can’t get that up. One figure that caught my eye was 40K deaths in care homes this year alone. Obviously its two weeks out as its up to April 3rd
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020
IanG- Have you seen the governments NHS contacts tracing app? apparently they say its voluntary but they have said they might make it compulsory, right wheres that copy of 1984.
JC- A bit of a better explanation than I provided by this chap. I have had countless arguments with people about how to best help the NHS. They all want to spend more money and blame the government but nobody wants to look at themselves and take responsibility for their health. It doesn’t take years either, changes come quick.
https://www.europeanscientist.com/en/article-of-the-week/covid-19-and-the-elephant-in-the-room/
Mark
The senior finance wallah was in UK & in the private aggressive sector, not the IMF.
Sorry to dent a good rant.
Mark
You’d fit right in with the Michiganders mate.
Mark
1984, yeah, think how much worse it’s got in 36 years.
Iang- Ok mate my apologies but the IMF have defo had there say too. The EU was sinking before “The crisis” and we are seeing projections that we will lose a 3rd of our GDP, Brexit is a piss in the ocean in comparison. If we are still in it you can bet your bottom dollar we will be dragged into a far worse scenario imo. If things are truly going to be shit give me one big dose thanks.
As in this crisis all the countries made their own decisions in the end because its quicker, I think we will need that flexibility. The EU seems to think of itself over its members and I think you will see the members do likewise as they have recently imo.
The Michiganders? 🙂 had to look that up, from what I have read the lockdown was from studies on Spanish flu. No doubt it works but the two Viruses are worlds apart as it killed a lot of young people too, This doesn’t. Therefore isolating and putting the money we have thrown at wages etc into protecting the vulnerable seems a better option while the rest plough on (Sweden anyone) . The Diamond princess has 13 deaths out of 712 you would assume older range passengers . All points to they were expecting something far worse so I can understand the thinking.
As it is so many old folk/vulnerable people in homes etc and hospitals appeared to have died with/of it that it appears to have done not a lot to protect anyone they have set out to. I can’t sit here and think its all for the best, I am surprised so many are.
When I see that an average 400+ people in care homes have died every day in the UK so far this year without mention, that millions die from preventable diseases and that is the norm, it makes me think. I guess the only obvious difference with Covid 19 we are pointed at it 24/7 and it has cost a lot of money, the rest make a whole lot of profit. Makes you wonder what the angle is?
The word is our world has changed forever 🙂 we will see as the fallout and recriminations start what that looks like. If the investigation doesn’t go deeper than a bad virus and how to deal with it in future then not much has changed.
1984 – yes Surprising how much you accept over time isn’t it. Even the terrorists are behaving? maybe lockdowns are the cure.
JL has kids by the way so I would hope he’s got support.
Ian G ! Tip my hat for the use of the word wallah ! My kids call each other punka wallahs when they are on the wind up ! You sir have won the internet for me today !
Bibulus- Hows your four walls? too much it ain’t half hot mum in your household? 🙂
Didn’t realise Wuhan had been having unrest and protests over pollution prior to the “crisis”.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-china-blog-48904350
bibulous
Better than chota wallah.
Mark
In most chinese cities the air quality has been lethal for years, why do you think they make all these crap anti-pollution masks that they’re offloading on to us for the virus, which are not particularly effective, at great profit, ?
Mark
It wasn’t that kind of help I was offering JL.
Mark – I was referring to the latest redneck freedom protest shenanigans in Michigan. They don’t even know that they’ve always had freedom to die.
Mark
I remember the days when ignorance was a joke.
Now it’s a political movement funded by billionaires.
Hope you’ve got high enough walls to climb up.
bibulous
I need a pungelow wallah, it’s like a sunday in old wales.
That’s a beer waiter
IanG – I knew about the pollution mate didn’t realise they were on the streets at that time, probably as the Hong Kong stuff was kicking off.
I want an island mate not walls, listening to this bloke talk about the lockdown I have realised I’m Swedish and have cancelled my flight to Michigan. I think Sweden will be nuked before people realise we didn’t have to do much at all. If he is right boy are the next few weeks/months going to be a yo-yo of anguish, blame and sheepery.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=319&v=bfN2JWifLCY&feature=emb_logo
Mark – you’ll enjoy this mate.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/fungus-answer-climate-change-student-who-grew-mushroom-canoe-says-n1185401
IanG- I have seen a lot talks on mushrooms mate, they have some very real health benefits to the immune system. One guy back when they had the big all spill in the gulf of mexico was demonstrating their ability to clean oil from the soil. A company called four sigmatic make coffee’s from shrooms like lions mane and chaga , not cheap but neither is coffee at £2.80 from startbucks .
Mark
They float my boat mate.
£2.80? They were less than £2 last time I had one.
Now that’s definitely a conspiracy.
Try this:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1250975725059964928
IanG- Yes mate pick a conspiracy why not. I must admit I’m not a fan of dismissing things out of hand though.
If its about killing old/ill folks then add it to the list, saw a figure the other day from John Hopkins that 250-440K die from medical errors in the US and thats only third on the kill list, NHS clock up around 22k. So I am a tad sceptical about experts as they are only human and I have seen the adverts with doctors recommending fags 🙂
5G is an interesting one as there are no real studies to say its safe. “Long-term occupational exposure to ELF-EMFs can probably cause genotoxic effects” one study says and that was in electricity plants. Well we live in box full of electric wires which give of magnetic fields and wifi and 3G 4G and now 5G 24/7.
If 5G does have effects on oxygen in the body then it fits in with other factors. Doctors are reporting hypoxia in patients, its like they are oxygen depleted. Some say an oxygen tent would be better than a ventilator. Diabetes/obesity is also linked with a low oxygen environment. Put them all together in a city like Wuhan or New York thats polluted and its not going to help.
One doctor had his hips x-rayed and noticed bone loss of about 10% in the side where he kept his mobile phone, so for me I don’t think these things are benign. For instance if you go out in the sun your skin produces VitD and Nitric oxide, if you have chlorophyll in you blood you produce ATP in your cells. Indoor lighting has many bad effects if its one spectrum or at the wrong time of day so energy fields all around you 24/7 whats the chances?
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31540320
As for who dunnit? the mrs was telling me her nephew is in Shanghai and he has not seen or heard of one case of covid which seems odd. They cancelled internal flights and not international flights and I would assume there are many wet markets around China? having a Lab not far from one might be a rarity as is people on the streets protesting. Trade war with America and now the EU are preventing Chinese business taking over firms that are on their knees from this Virus. Theres enough evidence for 20 conspiracies.
Just read an article that says World Health Organisation Director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus was once third highest up in a communist revolutionary party in Ethiopia known for terrorism and systematic discrimination and human rights abuses, seems like the ideal candidate 🙂
Mark
That clip was meant to reintroduce a sense of humour, as none of us actually know much, & the variety of the weird & wacky based on rumours & partial truths is the point, not just about covid19, & the reason why a sense of humour is a necessary survival tool, period.
You’ll end up dying of stress before the nasty gets you if you’re not careful.
By the way, my son who lived until recently in china for 10 years & married & divorced a chinese woman, was on the phone to his girlfriend in Bejing, & she tells a diametrically opposite story, where like here, people are still worried about the next wave [which has started up in china], & the ineffectiveness & criminal quality of most of the masks etc, & the lies & inbuilt corruption of their government.
Also there is now a horrendously total lockdown in Bejing, probably to keep the party apparatchiks safe.
Until there is an covid19 jab, many will continue to suffer this, & you seem to be using the same logic & labelling techniques as the orange one.
Many things possibly have some truth in them [many not], but only partial at best, which is why they’re mostly being used to support agendas & exploit & use people in their narcissistic power games, rather than contributing to a little more truth.
IanG- No stress here mate , not labelling anyone just what seems obvious from observation, might be second wave, might just be the 1st that was held back by the lock down who knows . I think this chap has the right idea to my mind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwPqmLoZA4s
If my mrs nephew had said its all gone to rat shit I would of said that, I have no agenda. i would not be holding out for a jab either as other covid jabs have been less than spectacular and may have other consequences as this chap
IanG- on the comedy front, you might like this, you might not, its a bit strong in places but I like the interview with a corona virus and the Greek blokes perspective.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43ghOodN7fs
whey hey some football news from Wes Edens
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/its-very-reasonable-wes-edens-18128536
Also Steve Bruce has until the end of the season to prove himself to the New Arab owners of Newcastle, good luck with that.
OK, EUFA have decided to calculate the admissions to next season’s European competitions based on points per game average to determine the finishing positions for the current season. If the EPL adopt that standard, we are down should the EPL decide to instigate relegation places by the same method. Get your legal team ready Compass in case they’re needed. The stakes are massive.
The Dutch FA have decided to cancel all promotions and relegations,
So much for EUFA.
Maybe a chink of light
Hello boys,
Long time since I was here to comment, but have not really bothered with football, as it is just a whole pile of often poor opinion and conjecture, and so have used my time more usefully enjoying my reasonable size garden.
I have managed to turn over virtually every sod of soil and remove 95% of the weeds.
I will admit to having a few arguments on facebook about how we are dealing with the virus, PPE shortages etc.
I have also joined in the 8pm clapping on a Thursday, but otherwise not a lot, although have also enjoyed a few walks locally, discovering places that I did not know existed!
Still managing to exist on my last fill up with diesel in Birmingham on 13 March, must be a record, and managed to fill my oil fuel tank here for heating at 26p per litre!!!
Had hoped to get some of that kerosene that was 0$ dollars per barrel, but my supplier told me where to go!!
My only real time with football was on Friday night watching the true Brian Clough story, and then the story in his own words… which was the equivalent of the time I would normally spend in Aston on a match day!!
I did enjoy it very much though, as well as watching all the match highlights involved.
There was no mention of his partnership with Peacock though, which surprised me, as that is my memory of him before he went into management, and the discovery of Peacock being colour blind.
Hopefully, there will be something more concrete in the coming week or so, and we will actually know where Villa stand over their future.
Enjoyed the article on mushroom research.
All good here under the circumstances thanks for asking !
Enjoying the theories.
Still clinging to the fact we are unbeaten for five weeks and the bonus of the fact i never thought i would watch villa lift the european cup twice in the last four weeks.
Look after yourselves !
Hope your all well people.
So apparently the season will be finished at neutral grounds, 8 or 10 stadiums and ours will be one tk them
And we won’t be allowed to play there. Joke
Just make it null and void and re start in September
Frem, I understand the theories behind neutral venues for completing games. However, by its nature, some teams will be favoured more than others and the “completed” season cannot be taken as a level playing field as it is flawed in status. Plenty for the legal teams to argue over.
We will lose 6 games in front of sold out VP crowds. Some teams down the bottom have 4 home games left, each with less attendances than VP. Only when each team has played 19 games at home in front of their fans and 19 games away from home in front of the opposition fans can the season be called a level playing field. To relegate anyone in these circumstances show the EPL to be cheats bowing to the money men.
Listening to Doctor Jenny Harries yesterday, we may be surprised, and football may be able to restart sooner than expected. It is clear that they feel crowds in outdoor spaces are safer than people in cars and pubs.
his gives an inkling that they may be thinking of letting season ticket holders attend matches, so long as they travel by public transport, do not expect to go to the pub first(because they will not be open). There will be no food or drink facilities open in the ground, and everyone will have to wear face masks.
This will meet the governments criteria of being able to track and trace anyone after the match, if someone becomes positive after attending the game, as the club will have records of all season ticket holders.
We may have bigger problems than the football, we don’t want to go out apparently, un- effing -beliveable. If these polls are accurate we have truly lost our collective minds, good job on the scare tactics though.
“The Observer leads with a new poll by Opinium that reveals fewer than one in five of the British public believe the lockdown should be lifted. 67% of people think schools should remain closed, against only 17% who think they should reopen. Just 11% think it’s time to reconsider reopening restaurants, with 78% against, while only 9% think pubs should reopen, with 81% against. When it comes to sporting events, 84% are against allowing mass gatherings to take place, with just 7% in favour.
Unfortunately, that poll isn’t an outlier. A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times found that just 25% of adults would feel safe returning to work and the public opposes reopening schools by 48% to 28%. And 59% of people polled by the Sunday Express said they would not feel comfortable going out and don’t plan to resume a normal life any time soon.”
MK,
One has to consider that there is a significant number of people who have actually gained from lockdown with working from home, or being on a guaranteed wage, and having no expenses for travel, lunches, coffee, eating and drinking out.
There is a significant number who are struggling and cant wait to get back to normal, and they have to convince many who also have become almost paranoid over the virus.
It is very strange times, and the world is not going to be the same for a very long time, if ever.
You also have to consider that very few seem to trust this government after the herd immunity fiasco resulting in them starting late with more cases & deaths in the catchup, & they are also saying that it hasn’t yet peaked in the uk as a whole.
So no, why should people be cannon fodder.
If many were capable of actually staying still for 5 minutes, the peak would have happened by now.
When they see a government that stops lying & is at least the usual transparency, then someone may trust them more.
In places where there is not so much of it, then the strictures are breaking down with the under 50s.
It could be worse, we could all be in Texas.
Anyway, here in Ramadan everything has calmed down.
PP
It was already strange, it would depend on where we were to start with.
There actually is no such thing as a ‘normal’, so maybe some of the existing weird patterns may accelerate & restrict some of the corruption & mindlessness.
You never know
Plug
I read somewhere that the top wage in the EFL is 68 grand a week!
The whole pyramid scheme is breaking down.
Well whatever someones point of view on covid is I have heard some very odd things lately. Banburys Hospital has Zero covid patients and neither does a very big one near slough near a firm I subby for. The owner of said firm had a chest infection which cleared up with penicillin, his Dr tried to put him down as a covid patient. His Father in law died last week too and not of Covid, same thing they tried to add him to the list.
Care homes are being asked to do the same with normal deaths being overwritten by GP’s even though they never saw the patient. Talking of which People in care homes that need hospital are not getting sent there. If they then Die because they can’t get treated I suspect they are more covid statistics. Add to that the many that won’t go to hospital with their ailments and have potentially died at home. Theres a big chance this will dwarf anything covid actually does.
The mrs care home has one woman that has had it, she was brought in but can’t move except for her eyes the poor old gal. She is susceptible to bronchitis and she got over covid.
This chap whos seems rather bright, Michael Levitt, Professor of Structural Biology at Stanford and the winner of the Nobel Prize for Chemistry in 2013 thinks the Herd immunity was the right thing to do.
“I think the policy of herd immunity is the right policy. I think Britain was on exactly the right track before they were fed wrong numbers. And they made a huge mistake.” His death toll estimates have beaten Fergusons into a cocked hat.
What seems to be happening is we are following the science but it might be the wrong science or scientist.
https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-the-covid-19-epidemic-was-never-exponential/
Something fresh and very predictable up.
Sorry to interrupt…please feel free to continue on the new page.
Hope everyone’s well. So far so good for us.
MK,
Something to chew on (if you want to copy your comment over): In my mother’s small, largely rural county, there’ve been 47 cases and 7 deaths: 15%. She knows two of them, one the lady across the street.
On coding cause of death, here’s something that might shed a little light. Or not.
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/social-media-posts-make-baseless-claim-on-covid-19-death-toll/
Uncertainty still reigns.