Yes, we lost against a good-looking Wolves attack on Saturday, without a doubt. And we may well have been looking at the eventual champions. But, to look at it from another angle, it was Villa’s first defeat in nine starts, and nine starts in which we have scored four goals in two of the matches and three in another. If we can continue having runs like that with just the intermittent defeat then the Doc’s target of promotion will be achieved, especially that such undefeated runs should see us finish in second place at least. There are 34 matches to go, so assuming four defeats and 22 wins from those, we would finish with 93 points, the same as Brighton last season.

Optimistic? Yes, perhaps, but I do not see too many teams in the Championship able to beat us. Would such a season and the current approach help us to provide a basis for life in the Premiership? Probably not as things are; but I do see things getting better, not worse.

And for those who wonder why smaller clubs appear (on the surface) to have had their problems sorted relatively quickly – including Wolves – let’s not forget that Villa is one heck of a club to get right. In my view, Villa’s historical background demands that the Club be looked at with a special pair of glasses, with a view to bringing the Club back to where it really belongs, at or near the very top.

These are the main historical issues I am referring to:

1. The fact that Villa led the world into the modern game in the 1893-1915 period and created records at that time that took other clubs decades to catch up with. Even in 1981 Villa had won more domestic trophies than any other club.
2. The fact that Villa won the European Cup in 1982, followed by the Supercup against Barcelona later that year.
3. The fact that until recently Villa had provided more players to the England team than any other club.
4. The fact that Villa still resides in 4th or 5th place (depending on how you look at the numbers) in a league of domestic trophy winners.

The Club is also the main representative of the UK’s second city. Yet Aston Villa, with that history, now (sadly) sits in the Championship. And we expect quick fixes after the Club had been run down over five years and had become a laughing stock? I grimace when I think back to those matches of 2015-16.

Back in 1959, when the Club had been relegated for only the second time in its history, there was shock that it had happened. But, as in Villa’s recent history, it could be said that “it was coming”. Villa at that time had played it close too often and Lady Luck finally went through the door.

In the second tier in 1959-60, and after a promising 8-game start (just losing one and drawing one including a 5-2 home win against Portsmouth), the following results transpired:

A Huddersfield 1-0
H Leyton Orient 1-0
A Stoke 3-3
A Lincoln 0-0
A Sheffield U 1-1
H Middlesbrough 1-0
A Derby 2-2
H Plymouth 2-0

Four not-too-convincing wins and four draws. Then Villa went to Liverpool – themselves strong promotion contenders at that time and playing the kind of football that Wolves displayed on Saturday – and lost 2-1. Manager Joe Mercer was angry even though it was only Villa’s second defeat of the season. He told his strikers: “Get scoring or I’ll bring in the reserves”, and there were some good youngsters waiting their chance.

That was the attitude then. “Hey, we’ve actually been beaten, let’s get up off our rears and do something about it!” But what followed was not expected by anyone:

H Charlton 11-1
A Bristol C 5-0
H Scunthorpe 5-0

Twenty-one goals in three matches, with Gerry Hitchens scoring 10 of them. The 11-1 result was slightly flattered by the fact that their keeper broke his hand in trying to keep out the sixth two-thirds of the way through the match and was replaced in goal by an outfielder in the days of no subs. But any thought of the big result being a fluke was cast aside after those two following results.

But this article is not so much about those three results in retaliation to the Liverpool defeat; it is about the next match after that: a 2-1 defeat at lowly Rotherham! “How” – we asked – “could a football team be so devastating over three matches and then lose this one?”. But Villa then won a fantastic match against fellow promotion candidates Cardiff and proceeded to get promotion that season despite all the misgivings.

In fact, back in 1898 something similar happened when Villa won four home games in succession, 6-1, 7-1, 5-0 and 9-0 (27 goals in 4). The next week along came the Albion and everyone said they would be treated in similar fashion, especially as they had been beaten 7-1 in their previous encounter. Albion instead won 2-0!

And in 1961-62 when Villa won their Easter home games 8-3 and 5-1, yet lost their next two.

The moral of the story is that football is still not a predictable game; it is not a precise science either. The result of a game is a lot to do with how the players of both sides face up to the match. Anything can happen, and, yes, I can be wrong in my prediction of Villa getting promotion. And with regard to the Wolves result just gone, it was not entirely unexpected, but it’s how the Villa will respond in the next match that should reveal the better side of the team’s character.

It’s great being a Villa fan, isn’t it?!

UTV!

P.S.

I know you will enjoy my latest book, “The Villa Way – 1874-1944”. Please look in to my bookshop (click here) and purchase a copy. And you will also find that the blind John Flanner’s highly enjoyable book about his time as a Villa fan, “Beautiful Game, Beautiful Memories”, is also available at the same bookshop.

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John Lerwill
I'm a Villan of more than 60 years standing and an occasional writer on Villa history. For me there is only one football club worth supporting, but I am now wondering whether I will again see anything like the pageant that was paraded under Ron Saunders or even that by Big Ron and Brian Little. My glass, however, is always half-full! Click here for my Villa website.

Comments 107

  1. OldVilla

    Interesting preamble there John. quite thought provoking.
    To me the most interesting part is the following – “The moral of the story is that football is still not a predictable game; it is not a precise science either. The result of a game is a lot to do with how the players of both sides face up to the match. Anything can happen..”

    This is exactly the problem when we set our expectations too high and think we should be wiping the floor with the opposition just because we are in the Championship. You are correct, it is NOT a predictable game and it certainly ISN’T a precise or exact science either. You can analyse to your hearts content, but if a player decides he isnt feeling like doing the business on match day for whatever reason, then there’s your analysis out the window as you cannot factor in this human element.

    So I guess when we all call for Bruces head after one defeat in nine, then maybe we should take a look at the players and say …… Codger didnt have a good game, Adomah didnt do much etc etc – but they are human and will have off days as we all do. And Bruce or the Lord Almighty cannot do a thing about it. So lets move on as every team in this division will have to do many times this season and look at the next couple of games and see what transpires, accepting that we will have ups and downs.

    And I am not saying I am happy with life at AVFC, because I am not in totality happy. There are still areas that need addressing but my view is that there is an enormous amount already sorted to the clubs benefit and maybe it will take a bit longer to sort the outstanding issues. And we cannot alter that as this is what the previous owners left us.

    So lets all reign in our strongest views and see how things move forward over the next few weeks.
    Then maybe we can all live happily ever after…………….
    Yours in happy hippy mode,
    oldvilla

  2. Trinity

    JL
    Agree with OV, a thoughtful article. Thanks for doing the research and sharing it. The article and OV’s post reminds me of Karl von Clausewitz’s On War regards the human factor. He wrote about the “fog” of war and how the best-laid plans can quickly fly out the window (with the truth) after the first shot is fired due to a multitude of factors both predictable and unpredictable.
    I’m looking forward to Fulham at home because the team will really have to get it together to win against what is a serious promotion contender. Unfortunately, Villa has lost badly to top half teams before Wolves, but Fulham is an opportunity to put that to bed and prove to the fans that Villa is a serious contender. Villa must be ruthless. They should be glad they get to have another go at Wolves later on too, a shot at revenge.

  4. Canadian Villan

    Apparently I cant all of a sudden copy and paste my last comment from previous blog, as John put this one up while i was still in the last one. Anyway, any one wanting to read my two cents worth go back to the end of the last column, which has me ending with you chaps coming up some viable alternatives to pilot this ship.
    John, yes its true you do need to have special glasses to watch the Vila, yours are “Rose” coloured are they not, lol.

  6. Plug

    OV
    So lets all reign in our strongest views and see how things move forward over the next few weeks.

    Sorry mate, but I think that order is a little too tall for me. JL has optimistically come up with 22 wins and 4 losses from our remaining 34 games amounting to a total of 93 points. I will skip the pessimistic outlook and instead take the realistic one. After 12 games we are averaging 1.58 points per game. Over 46 games that gives us 73 points which last season would have put us 8th and a full 20 points short of P2. So I can’t see how 93 points “by the time the daffodils come up” can possibly be extrapolated from our form to date.

    Therefore something must give. My own view on this differs from that of SB. He believes he has a team capable of promotion and has said so. I disagree. I think he has a squad capable of promotion but at the moment he keeps playing the ageing legs. It really is time to bring the age of the team down dramatically. Kevin Mac has some promising kids. MK on this blog has banged this drum for some time. I have watched the kids play and they do play attacking football at pace much like Wolves. The current lack of energy that we are witnessing in my view is down to age. I would like to see 5 or 6 of the kids start. Only by giving them 1st team exposure can they reach their potential and they are our future.

  9. Trinity

    Plug
    Good comments. I’d like to see more youth in the playing line-up, too. I’d like to see O’Hare behind a Davis/Hogan duo up front with JK coming on as a lone striker if things need changing. Villa needs zest.

  10. Trinity

    From Canadian Villan
    Nice one Robbo, but TBF I don’t think James read the bit in brackets where you say i include myself, as i missed it first myself. I believe all of us on this site want one thing, and that’s to see us playing well and with that hopefully winning. Issue is how long do we let things play out, before the inevitable happens. I include every single contributor in that last comment, as JL and the other OLD Villa ( I include myself in this group) seem to be in agreement that Steve is not likely to be the guy to lead us in the Prem should he miraculously manage to get us there.
    So the big question, is not should he stay or should he go, but when should he go. Time and again we have fallen way short against quality opposition, these are the teams that will win automatic promotion, so we will have to play them and better teams should we fluke promotion via the play offs. Again I ask the question then, when should he go, every now and then I think along with John we are moving forward, but alas, that feeling doesn’t last and we serve up tripe, and with or with out the onions I cant stand tripe.
    My problem living over here, is I’m limited to the amount of games I get to watch other than the Prem and Champions League. So I accept we will not be able to attract a manager from any of those sides and I don’t know enough of managers in this or any other division in the UK to be able to come with a viable alternative. Yes, Moyes and Sam are available, but wouldn’t that be reinventing the wheel? Same mold same out come? It would be interesting to hear some viable alternatives to the Bruce, any suggestions chaps?

    Good post there, CV. I don’t have a clue who’d be viable and available.

  11. IanG

    The biggest problem I found when playing, was how to find enough people in the team who knew how to use the chaos that came with things not working, to use the energy of it to start from scratch to up their game, without going in their shells to digest plan A not working & getting indigestion & infecting the rest.
    On a bad day that is the problem as players play the energy which is the difference between passing in front of a player for him to run on to & a sharp incisive pass forward , to passing square & backwards & slowing the play down & constantly losing the ball.

    You can’t teach this, just inspire it, & it shows in how much energy you put into closing down as a group when you haven’t got the ball, or not.
    It is supported by senior players who have this ability, & the coaching & attitude of who’s in charge of the team or the manager in modern football.
    But I don’t see this at Villa in abundance, especially with the manager, who’s senior gravitas doesn’t seem to communicate this to the players or anyone else [which is 1 reason why I don’t rate Bruce.
    As he seems to do the management rather than the coaching, I have suspicions about the standard of coaching, & the ethos of the coaching.
    Something is creating a rigidity within a group of talented players, which stifles them every time plan A doesn’t work when we play the better teams [& sometimes the lesser teams].
    To me this is why it is so frustrating, & I resent being told how to see it by our manager, which I see as part of the reason for the slow progress if that’s his approach with the players.
    He even has this effect on me, so if we have to have him, the sooner we get promoted & change it all the better.

  12. IanG

    U 23’s did well beating wolves, especially O’Hare, who linked up well with Grealish by all accounts.
    They seem to have the chutzpa

  15. John Clark

    IanG.

    Well said. I’ve seen it more than once, and lived it on the pitch, where you can draw up anything you like…once the ball is put in play, it’s up to individual players to impose themselves on the game or not.

    I particularly agree with your observation about ‘rigidity’. That does indeed seem to be a defining quality of this side. And it’s not a rigidity of system that seems to bring out the best in players. Instead, it seems to put them into boxes.

    Wolves were definitely disciplined and playing within a system that sought to achieve certain patterns. But their patterns were more flexible, even if the final and telling pass didn’t vary that much. They played more quickly, more assuredly, and with greater incision.

    Now, we could just say, that’s Wolves, we might be looking at the eventual champions. Fair enough. But, what’s keeping us from doing the same thing?

  16. Trinity

    IanG
    Yeah, I see what you mean by rigidity in the team when plan A isn’t working, which is one of the reasons I’d like to see a couple more youngsters playing. As Mark, for instance, has said in the past, they’re not so set in their ways, not scared and have more stamina in their legs. There’s enough experience there, now. We know we have some good young ones, who could do a job. Good to hear Jack Grealish is doing well.
    They need to run Fulham off their feet this Saturday.

  17. IanG

    JC
    Watching Portuguese football, there are a small number of teams better than the rest & their methods don’t change much in that respect either [like Wolves], & they always play in a disciplined way within a system, but they may be under the cosh a little especially when playing one of the better teams, but they don’t go into their shell, & they explode out within the pattern of play with high energy as soon as the game permits, & don’t let their heads drop, & always fight to get the ball.
    The lesser teams just aren’t so good at it, but they are honest, but that intensity of plat is not there so much..

    When we lose it, as a team we just seem to come from an inner uncertainty, it’s similar to a lack of confidence but I think it stems from a confusion coming from trying to impose something [which tends to not have a natural result] rather than express in a disciplined way.
    It could have something to do with setting up to be defensive.

    I just hope that in the next match we score first & release some of it & play more naturally.

  19. IanG

    lana
    It’ll be good to see Green back as he has that youth & intensity, as has O’Hare.
    Also to be honest, being young they’re probably don’t suffer from getting over complicated instructions.
    Codger wasn’t at the races, so maybe he should be the sub & we start O’Hare & also Hogan in a 4231 with Snodgrass.

  20. OldVilla

    Morning all,
    The subject of playing youth.
    I think we would all agree that if the kids are good enough then why not play them? BUT – how many do you play at once? What is the balance between having the ‘correct’ numbers of both youth and experience in the same team in order to form a winning team. And not destroy the kids if it all goes wrong.
    I guess an obvious possibility would be to have one playing at the back, guarded by the experience of the other three, plus say three youth in the midfield/forward positions with the rest being experienced players to hold things together if needs be. Dunno what others think?

    Also, the question of Grealish. We have seen the coming of JG many times in the past but it has never materialised into anything of substance. Will this time be any different? I really hope so as I think he has got both skill and a footballing brain. But can he/will he apply himself to become the footballer we all believe is in there?

    Right, off for a walk in the wonderful blue sky and sun of Basel…….
    oldvilla

  21. Trinity

    OV
    Good points about the youth. Yes, the question of youth/veteran balance is an issue. I think your numbers sound about right, which would concur with what was played against Wigan earlier this season.
    Grealish is an enigma. Too often he hasn’t got involved, but other times he’s chipped in with winners. I suspect having guys his own age around will motivate him. I remember when I was 19, a 30-year-old seemed ancient:). How times have changed:).

  22. John Lerwill

    Plug: “So I can’t see how 93 points “by the time the daffodils come up” can possibly be extrapolated from our form to date.”

    My criteria simply comes from the fact that we didn’t really start to play until the beginning of September. In my predictions I am – of course – assuming that we will continue in the September vein (if not better), not the vein present in the first 3 matches.

    But I also said (last para) I could be wrong. Being a half-glass-full person, however, I’d rather stick with the more +ve prognostication.

  23. John Lerwill

    James: “it was 5 wins 3 draws but it was still only 3 unbeaten in all competitions”

    I discount the League Cup simply because we didn’t play the League team. It’s in the League that results count for the target towards promotion.

  24. John Lerwill

    JC: “Now, we could just say, that’s Wolves, we might be looking at the eventual champions. Fair enough. But, what’s keeping us from doing the same thing [playa la Wolves]?”

    John, above this I posted a link to Mat Kendrick’s article that gave an opinion as to why we should *not* expect to emulate Wolves.

    And I’ve tried to say in a roundabout way in my article that Villa is Villa and not the club that should be copying anyone else but determining its own destiny – a Villa Way. Which will – I’m certain – manifest itself more fully over time.

    As I keep saying, we (as fans) seem to lack patience. After the previous 5 years I’d have thought we could wait a bit longer? 🙂

  25. Plug

    IanG
    Very accurate comments.

    OV
    How many kids do you play at any one time? Very relevant.

    I would happily see Bree and Borg as our full backs. But they can’t just be put in the starting line up. You need to see how they cope on the training ground. SB has the chance to arrange a game each week behind closed doors with suitable teams from around the area. They don’t even need to be 90 minutes as 60 minutes would tell you what you need to know. He can then select all manner of permutations to find his eleven that work. I assume he does this already?

    Three at the back can work. It didn’t at Bristol City. Not surprising because one of the three needs to be a speed merchant to cover Chester and JT. Have we got such a speedster?

    Do they coach the forwards how to deal with a marker up your backside? Watch Gary Shaw from yesteryear receiving the ball with his back to goal and tightly marked. He slipped it off the side of his boot and turned quickly at the same time leaving the marker for dead. Watch Kevin Keegan in the same situation deal with a ball coming at his chest. A leap and twist as the ball hits him and he’s gone past the defender with the ball. Do we see this from any of our team?

    I was watching Cavaleiro the other day to see how he made his space. He didn’t do much, just ambled into the gap between Elmo and the centre backs and his colleagues found him. If Elmo is playing at RB he needs to mark his man does he not?

    It’s tough being a Villa fan

  26. DarrenO

    Hi JL

    Too early to say things are getting better if we can’t cope with the likes of Cardiff or Wolves, that is not to say we steamroll them but you have to look at the money spent on the squad, the media fact we’ve the best manager at getting promotion from Div 2.

    The jury is still out in terms of Bruce, I did say September results were a reflection of the opposition and October would give us a greater picture of where we stand, I’ll reserve overall judgement until the month is over. In terms of the Wolves game itself, the better team won and it seemed to be just down to work ethic over 90 minutes as I thought we matched them until the first goal.

    As for ending up on 93 points, sorry but predicting the future on what you described as the unscientific sport of football was maybe done to illicit a response because there is no way you or I can predict how many points we’ll get, we can extrapolate all we want to back a certain point of view but we don’t honestly know how many points we’ll get nor how many points will be needed for Top 2 or 6.

    Great to see O’Hare getting a chance and was industrious enough to warrant another sub appearance against Fulham but earlier in the game next time.

    There’s still something missing in this Villa side, whether it’s my own lack of confidence in them having suffered for the last 5 years or a disconnect in the forward play that requires the players to still learn what each other can do and like to do in terms of position/runs.

    Following the small serialisation of Shay Given’s book in the BMail, I’ve grown to dislike what Gabby represents more and more, I don’t know the man but clearly his actions were selfish in his dealings with Roy Keane as opposed to the greater good for Villa and as I’ve always thought, Lambert was a weak-willed characterless individual.

  27. DarrenO

    As I keep saying, we (as fans) seem to lack patience. After the previous 5 years I’d have thought we could wait a bit longer?

    This isn’t most fans’ fault, this is what we are drip fed from Dr.T, that last season should have been our promotion season and then it’s a two year plan so this year has to be our promotion season.

    I’d have gladly accepted from the chairman something along the lines of ‘I’ve just bought Villa and an initial assessment shows me that we have a long way to go to get things right from the basics up, therefore as Villa fans I ask for your patience as we rebuild this great club. I can’t put a timeframe on when we’ll be back but I will do everything in my power to achieve this.’

    Instead we got Champions League in 5 years and all will bow before the mighty Villa, that expectation level setting whether it’s based on an expectation that, that will ingratiate Dr.T with the fans did nothing but set the bar too high. I’d have readily accepted Garde given a chance to rebuild, I’d have readily accepted a new young tactician as a manager with a remit to build the Villa Way from the top down instead we got ‘Champions League winner’ presented in China and then we got the promotion king and we have the Villa Way being built from the bottom up with a disconnect between the first team’s ‘style’ of play and the underages.

    Given Villa has needed a complete rebuild, the appointment and subsequent sacking of RdiM even though results weren’t particularly bad, tells me a key position in the organisation was mis-managed. It was never about rebuilding Villa, these two seasons have only proven there is a race to get back to the prem at the expense of Villa fan patience.

  28. John Lerwill

    Darren: “but we don’t honestly know how many points we’ll get nor how many points will be needed for Top 2 or 6.”

    We’ve a fair idea, Darren, based on previous seasons … not exact, but a fair idea.

    Also, your view is of the half-glass-empty direction, and fair dos, but at least allow one or two matches before we lurch into an end -of-the-world perspective of where we’re at.

    For my money, there has been improvement shown on over the past few weeks (bar what may be a ‘blip’ at Wolves) and I hope to see it continue. If it doesn’t, then we have something to talk about. But that’s then, not now.

  31. DarrenO

    We may have a fair idea of what is required but that avoids my challenge of your impression that we’ll get 93 points, if we do brilliant but there is nothing exact in your science.

    To suggest 93 points fuels the fire of impatience that you suggest we should avoid.

  32. John Lerwill

    Darren,

    That’s why I said (last para) I could be wrong. My prognostication was not a flat certainty, I simply said *if* we continue having undefeated runs as we had in September, then 93 points is ‘on’.

    So why should an idea that is just a punt as to a mere possibility inflaming impatience?

    As I’ve said before, back at Christmas in 1974-75 if there had been a suggestion that Villa would definitely get promotion people would have scoffed. But Villa had a wonderful end-of-season run of 8 wins.

    Football is not science; I go mainly by gut feelings *and* what has gone on before over 65 years.

  33. DarrenO

    Predicting the future isn’t possible in football so perhaps baby steps are needed by suggesting how many points we’ll get in the next two games as form guides are more relevant now than in March or April.

    You were/are such an advocate for not talking about the future, that I’m entirely perplexed by your use of it now. Equally you’ve advised that the past can’t be used as it has no comparison with the now, yet you leverage 65 years of watching football to suggest 93 points is a valid statement beyond just being a guess based on a hope.

    JL can you please just set the record straight so I can get back to the JL I used to read whereby you are in a happy place based on nothing more than at least it’s better than being depressed about Villa, that any sort of analysis of the future or the past is immaterial to the now and that Bruce may not be the right man but he’s the man we have. 🙂

  34. John Lerwill

    Darren,

    Sorry, this is getting a bit OTT in my opinion.

    I only put in that prediction as a way of bringing us back (a little) to some semblance of reason. That is, the attitude that one defeat suddenly proved that all is wrong with Bruce.

    Why should you be so upset about a hypothetical and simple prediction that may be right or may be wrong? You can reject or consider it: the choice is yours. This in contrast to the flat certainties from some quarters that Bruce is wrong for the club and will not achieve much.

  36. John Lerwill

    Darren,

    As far as the past is concerned I used illustrations to *generally* point out that nothing can be predicted in football.

    The past that *you* are referring to and the one that I refrain from going back to is one where *specifically* there is no longer a real link with that past so therefore no pint in comparing.

    Two differenet scenarios.

  38. John Clark

    JL,

    Not had a chance to see what Kendrick has to say, but Wolves simply show that you can bring in a number of players, a new manager, and get things ticking over nicely in a relatively short amount of time.

    You just need to bring in players with a plan, players who will suit a style, complement each other and the manager’s philosophy. And of course have the money to go buy a new squad.

  39. John Clark

    OV,

    On youth, the funny thing is that if the ‘kids’ know each other, then one could argue they’ll play better with more of them out there at a given time.

    It could also be the case that they’d be overwhelmed. Now Hutton had a number of vital interventions against Wolves, so it’s hard to fault him on the day. But I would like to think we’d be bringing along a youngster behind Taylor. Maybe we are, but it’s not working out. Dunno.

    With Whelan, I’m certainly of the opinion that an all-action youngster who’s a fighter and ball-winner could do no worse. There’d be mistakes, of course, but Whelan also has at least a clanger or two a game. In the other areas, I think youth would outweigh the mistakes.

    Can’t know until you see it, of course, but those are two spots where we could be looking another direction than we have done.

  40. John Lerwill

    JC,

    I don’t disagree with that for one moment, it’s just that I feel Villa have their own plan which does not necessarily differ with those objectives. That may be hard to discern just now, but I think there’s something deeper going on at VP that (after those crazy 5 years) is taking time to unfold.

    Whether I’m right or no we’ll see.

  42. OldVilla

    JC – youth …….
    I agree with your thoughts – BUT as I think you are saying, we have had supposed good youth before only for them not to make the grade for whatever reason. And maybe more importantly, in the possible volatile atmosphere at VP, we could easily destroy the kids – imagine a large number of them playing on Saturday ……. then we lose or play badly and get booed off the pitch. How would that affect them? And of course if SB did follow that course of action and the scenario I mentioned did unfold, he would be hammered by all and sundry!

    So totally agree with playing kids but its a tricky and vital decision on how many and in what positions. I quite like the way that some of the kids are being given time on the bench and used as subs to get them used to the atmosphere and speed of the game. But appreciate that for some, that isnt quick enough ……..

    oldvilla

  43. John Lerwill

    What determine a match result

    I was just looking at Grealish’s performance in the 2015 semi vs Liverpool, and reminded myself how good a player he can be. That must have been his best performance in Villa colours.

    See https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=335&v=ID6UuMHFS5Y

    But on the theme about that a result to a match depends on how the players face up to the match, Villa’s performance in the 2015 final was a non-no. It could have been a different team completely from that which played Pool off the park. Depends on how the opposition play it, too, of course.

  45. r0bb0

    It’s been said quite a few times that we haven’t beaten a top 6 side yet but that’s not really true.
    At this stage of the season you need to take into account our results against the top teams. If we hadn’t beaten Norwich (whilst putting 4 goals past them) they’d now be a top 6 side.
    So taking into account our results against the top teams we’ve won one drawn one and lost two.
    That’s not quite as bad as it’s been painted . . . . not as good as Wolves, but not bad
    Oh but as a comparison, wolves record against top 6 teams this season is played 3, drawn 1 and lost 2 . . . . Rubbish aren’t they! (Ok . . . they’ve won 1 if you include their result against us . . . . because we’d be a top 6 side if we’d not list to them)

  46. John Clark

    r0bb0,

    Before Wolves, I said that I figured one side would take all the points, but that I’d primarily be looking for Villa to give as good as they got.

    So, I think its fair to look at other teams’ records against the top 6. While I didn’t necessarily have a feeling one way or another whether Villa would beat Wolves, it was the nature of the performance that bothered me more than the result.

    Of course, as the season rolls on, we’ll see who’s really entrenched at the top end, and then draw better conclusions. So for me, it was more about looking outclassed, same as we did against Cardiff and Reading, rather than the result.

    Ideally, you’d be beating everyone and sitting top. Might be a team or two you just don’t match up well against, of course. If you draw or split wins with the sides around you and beat everyone else, you should be in the hunt.

  47. John Lerwill

    JC,

    Well, as r0bb0 has intimated, all teams have blips, including Wolves.

    That being the case I would suggest that the match against Villa was specially prepared for.

  49. John Clark

    JL,

    Of course all teams have blips. What I, and many others, are waiting to see is whether we continue to have blips against good teams.

    I think the basic point everyone agrees on is that if we play good teams and play them well, look good, get results, then, sure, we’ll also have blips like everyone.

    But a series of ‘blips’ becomes a trend. And of course, we can do nothing else but wait for the next game and the game after to that to see what trends emerge over time and become the story of the season. To this point, the trend is that we’ve looked like training cones for the large majority of matches against good teams.

    We’ve also looked good against lesser teams.

    Does that mean the budding trend has to, or will, continue? No.

    “…the match against Villa was specially prepared for.”

    What does that mean? They watched video, scouted us, and sussed how to play against us? I’d be surprised if they didn’t. If there was something extra done, it was done very well.

  50. John Lerwill

    JC: “are waiting to see is whether we continue to have blips against good teams.”

    What have I been saying, John? My main point has been “why be too concerned about the Wolves result by itself … let’s wait until at least after the Fulham match before we start being really concerned”.

    If you want to go back to the old chestnut of “what about the matches vs Cardiff and Reading?” then surely that was then, before a team had got itself properly sorted.

    John, in the way that Wolves played it seemed to me that they were seriously up for it. Every player seemed to have been told exactly what his job was and they stuck to it assiduously.

    So when you say “there was something extra done, it was done very well” that’s part of what I meant – they were better up for it. Do they play like that in every match? Looks as though not given the stats that r0bb0 supplied.

    Villa – it can be *correctly* argued – should also have been better prepared, but were clearly not. That was a matter of concern for me also, but, hey, it is just one match…

    …and it’s how Villa bounce back that we should be concerned about.

    So when you say “But a series of ‘blips’ becomes a trend.” that’s a self-evident truth, but I will never be concerned about that until it happens. Fearing the worst – as in life itself – is the worst psychology to apply. Positive outcomes require a positive attitude – another self-evident truth.

    As I’ve also said before, I think that we’re still suffering (as fans) a major hangover from the previous 5 years and seem to perpetually fear the worst! 😉

  52. John Clark

    JL,

    Not that old a chestnut, my friend. Unless this season is now ancient history. They’re the only decent teams we’ve faced, apart from Boro. So, one more good team played now, one more poor performance. Those are all the blips we have to work with.

    I think you also confuse existential angst with simple commentary and observation. I’ve not lost any sleep over Wolves. But in order to say something about the match, there has to be a point of view.

    Encouraging? No, it wasn’t. Discouraging? Closer to that, yes. Did it point in the right direction? No. The final say on the season? Of course not.

    If Wolves were simply more up for it, how many opponents can we say that about, and just in Bruce’s tenure? Those are the games you’re supposed to turn up for, the measuring sticks.

    You’ll recall I’ve said many times that the team that wants it more usually wins.

    So of course, we wait and see. Like you and everyone else, I’m excited to see us romp over a good side.

    But not being enthused or encouraged by the Wolves performance…that’s not irrational by any means. As I say, it’s up to Bruce and the players to turn take the building string of blips and make sure we remember them as only that.

  53. John Lerwill

    JC: “Not that old a chestnut, my friend. Unless this season is now ancient history. They’re the only decent teams we’ve faced, apart from Boro.”

    Yes, John, but things have moved on since then i.m.o. It’s not “ancient history” but there are different players on the field now.

    Why are you accusing me of confusion?! 😀 I simply can’t see the need for constant analysis. But that’s just me, I suppose!

    As the wise say, “everythig will come out in the wash”! 😀

  54. John Lerwill

    JC,

    In fact, I’m not concerned whether we “romp over a good side”. For my part I would simply like to see us get promotion as that’s the chairman’ main aim just now. As I intimated in my article I don’t see many teams able to beat us now assuming the Wolves match to be something of a one off.

    We have already played the current top-2 away from home, so I would expect us to at least get draws out of the VP matches. But even if not, I can’t see us losing more than another 4 or 5.

    We just need to grind out wins against the rest to at least finish in the top-6, but it would be the icing on the cake if we can do it with a bit of panache.

  55. DarrenO

    Hi JL

    You do see the need for opinion and that opinion being formed by analysis, it’s a very idyllic view of AV life by saying you don’t see the need for constant analysis. Surely there is merit in asking why we were good or bad per game and overall and that can only be asked with analysis based on perception, knowledge or pre-defined prejudices.

    Surely the one constant Steve Bruce deserves to be analysed as he bobs up and down with the waves struggling to convince some he has a plan, while others act as his flotation device.

    As with any blog by the time Thursday or Friday comes, Wolves will have been flogged to death, our overall status will have been flogged to death as well and as we go into crystal ball mode on what will happen v Fulham, the overall status will change, the feel good factor will rise or fall. To me it’s par for the course on any blog.

  56. John Clark

    DOR,

    Indeed. The whole point of a blog is to give fans a voice they don’t have elsewhere, the opportunity to comment, discuss, whinge, whatever, with other individuals of similar interests from around the world.

    It follows that these participants will be looking to engage on the finer points of all aspects of the topic if they’re going to post. If they don’t post, then they can read it just like a paper to gauge sentiment and perhaps some insight.

    Alternately, a person can just read the papers, watch TV, and/or talk it through with folks down the pub if they’re not interested in dissecting things. Football, indeed most any sport, is a roller-coaster of emotion, shifting data points and perspectives.

  57. John Lerwill

    Darren,

    I was merely expressing the way I see it. Of course there are those that like the analytical part of it, and it certainly plays its part from time to time. But in my judgment it’s a valid tool to be used, but sparingly. Using it tends to bring “an end of the world” atmosphere! 🙁

  58. John Lerwill

    JC,

    Yes, see my reply to Darren above.

    There are many ways to do things, and blogs do tend to follow the path you state. I’m well aware of that – I’ve been on them for near on 20 years! 🙂

    But in those 20 years I’ve seen a lot of howlers made – purely because of the kind of analysis that often takes place. Those that wanted Doug out, for instance, should be regretting their stance now i.m.o. A lot of nasty words were used. And have we since seen an improvement?

    It’s just my stance.

  59. IanG

    JL
    I don’t regret seeing the last of Deadly.
    In fact I won’t go into the Witton Lane stand until they take his name off it.
    It just feels … dirty
    Talking of everything coming out in the wash, well that’s the whole point of having a wash, dirt, otherwise there’d be no need.

  62. John Clark

    When people wanted Doug out, his staying or going didn’t have much to do with what they thought or wished for. Don’t think our thoughts influenced Lerner much either, and the negativity was certainly warranted.

    I simply think that when you go to the match, be loud, cheer ’em on, try to lift the side. That’s where ‘positivity’ counts and is actually manifested. Keeping away from twitter attacks on players doesn’t hurt, either.

  63. Trinity

    JC
    That’s right, the players and the manager are on the frontline, so deserve respect from the so-called supporters and spectators. I don’t agree with booing the players. How does that help? Guess the boo minority have a right to boo, but it just adds to dampening the atmosphere and lowers morale. If spectators cross that line and start hollering abuse, they need to get the boot.
    I remember some thug in the North Stand giving Gerrard Houllier a hard time. He went overboard and was removed. The fans cheered at his removal.

  64. John Lerwill

    JC: “When people wanted Doug out, his staying or going didn’t have much to do with what they thought or wished for. “

    Sorry, John, I can’t reconcile with that view of the past at all. Firstly, there was a lot going on that perhaps you don’t know about and a lot of vicious abuse of the man that was thoroughly unwarranted – just people venting their spleen.

    I am an historian and closely followed what was going on. I’ve also had deep conversations with Jonathan Fear, Ian Robothan and Carl Chinn (in regard to his dad, Buck Chinn) who were closely entwined with the Ellis saga one way or another.

    Not only that but I spent long periods on Villa Talk in so-called debates about Ellis, which were often just bad-mouthed diatribes about how Ellis had stopped the club from progressing. If that wasn’t about what the supporters wished for, then what was?

    I can assure you that Ellis going was a lot to do with what they thought or wished for. But I don’t intend to write screeds about that now! Why not read my book – “The First Superclub” – which talks about some of that.

    As far as Lerner was concerned he operated in an ivory tower and had little regard for what the supporter thought, no matter what he said. The supporters thought he was a wonderful replacement to achieve what they wanted – until the first 4 years were over.

  65. John Lerwill

    … except it took another 2 years or so before the supporters realised things were no different under Lerner than they had been under Ellis, in terms of creating a base for progress.

  66. John Lerwill

    John,

    Having re-read your comment I’ve come to the conclusion that what you meant to say was that Ellis made up his mind to go regardless of what the supporters thought.

    If that’s what you were saying, then there’s some truth in that. He was clearly not at all well and had reached 80 and probably no longer had the strength to fight the angst against him. Nor the finances to get further with the club.

    But, even so, Doug’s presence stirred up a lot of extreme resentment amongst a lot of supporters, and it was that and its presence on the blogs that I was referring to earlier. The anger got to a ridiculous level at times and put blogs – and instantaneous communication – into disrepute i.m.o. Mostly as a result of analysing things without taking in all that was needed to do a proper analysis.

    That’s the point I was making. As r0bb0 said, there is a tendency by bloggers to get to conclusions and put forward their arguments without sufficient data to perform an analysis. Hence too much analysis, i.m.o., is not worth it if we don’t know enough of the facts.

  67. Trinity

    Well, just to change the subject a bit. New Zealand has just had a change of government. The National Party (conservatives) have just lost out to a Labour/NZ First (a bit like UKIP) and Greens coalition. The king-maker, Winston Peters, of NZ First, said he wants to save NZ from liberal capitalism. There’ll be major cuts to immigration. It almost sounds like a mini Brexit.

    NZ have to play Peru to get to the next FIFA WC. I don’t like their chances. I will nevertheless be in Wellington for the first-leg.

  68. John Lerwill

    Iana,

    I always said that New Zealand is a reflection of the UK! 😀

    BTW, did you know that Villa signed a footballer from New Zealand in about 1909? The only thing was he was a rugby player! A Kiwi. But he managed to play OK at centre-forward, though not much for the first team.

  69. Trinity

    JL
    There wouldn’t be too many rugby players that could successfully switch to professional football these days. That Kiwi’s player must have had some real discipline just to stop himself from shoulder charging the opposition. Or was that already standard football practice in those days, anyway?

  71. IanG

    No PL matches on Xmas Eve.
    What about the EFL?
    Despite what you say about Deadly JL, thank goodness we all have a reaction & an opinion & experts only know part of the picture, cos most people I know feel he destroyed the hope of the team & the fans to progress due to his egocentric political & financial approach after 82.
    Also over the years they came to the conlusion that he did the club down to cling on to his ego trip of owning the villa with false hope.
    He stabilised yes, but at a terrible cost to the hopes of the fans & the potential of the club due to his limitations & reluctance to allow anyone else in to the club as it was his toy.
    Apart from that he really irritated the hell out of me with his jumped up ‘important me’ nonsense.

  72. John Lerwill

    IanG,

    I do recognise and empathise with some of those viewpoints you list, but the fact was that when he took over in ’82, the gates (his major source of income) were plunging, despite Villa’s Euro success, because of the Midlands economic situation at that time. Also, the previous regime at Villa had got Villa into debt and there was the fiasco with the North Stand.

    That’s one of the major things people forget and that at that time there was no TV revenue and sponsoring only began in ’81.

    Yes, there were some things that Doug could have done and Buck Chinn had to push him to do it – like reducing entrance fees for youngsters etc to increase the ground attendance. He could probably have been also more ambitious on getting schemes going for bringing in revenue.

    However, he did make a howler in putting the club on the Stock Exchange and using the money gained to replace the Trinity Stand, I also agree.

    Yes, there were things about Doug that irritated a number, but I’ve also heard wonderful commendations of his humanity and genuine interest in people.

    Of course he wasn’t an ideal chairman. But neither were the previous lot, particularly in terms of financial management. And Lerner just didn’t get involved. It was his toy.

  73. Plug

    I hear what you are saying JL about Herbert but he knew how to milk the club. It is no coincidence that Villa’s halcyon days in my lifetime occurred during the short period that he was ousted from the Board.

    You paint a deteriorating situation around VP gates linked to the wider Midlands economy shortly after we reached the summit which of course was true. None of that deterred Herbert from finding a way back in charge at the first opportunity.

    Sure he had various businesses, but most of his wealth was made from his time in charge at Villa. He made millions upon millions from the club at the expense of team development. He even paid himself a massive annual salary.

    Steamer (RIP great man) was one of his biggest critics. To this day, I am still affronted by Herbert’s name on the Witton Lane stand. Ron Saunders name is far more deserving.

  74. IanG

    JL
    Absolutely as far as Lerner was concerned.
    We always had the impression that Doug didn’t like to share, even to bring some new money in, which would have been better than listing the club & limiting the club’s ambitions at a crucial time by actions emanating from that.
    I quite liked the North stand as it was, as it had a great view of the Holte.
    Even a crocodile has tenderness to it’s young, so I’m sure he was capable of being human for real, but the people inhabiting the club became detrimental as you know, so I’m glad there has been an attempt at changing that culture now he & the yank & his entourage have gone.
    I still have some optimism even if I just sound like a miserable brummie, but it’s better than happy happy on prozac.

  77. John Lerwill

    Ian and Plug,

    Yep, can’t disagree with what you say. However, what I was really referring to was the blogs and what people were saying on them pre-2006.

    There was a lot of OTT feeling expressed that was better suited for the garbage can.

    And people were so sure that the future was going to be brighter under Lerner, who probably knew as much as Ellis how to get money out of the club. Or more even.

  78. DarrenO

    Well, what is everyone’s thoughts on the impending Fulham game?

    From my perspective, Fulham appear to have a more clever manager than we do. What is that based on, mostly my prejudices towards Bruce and as such Fulham will win, I’ll be vindicated and return Sunday to proclaim my superior knowledge of the beautiful game.

    Well, truly I don’t hold out much hope, September was our easy month, October is our difficult month, two good sides and an unpredictable derby and despite Bruce having had more games to work with his players, there still seems to be something missing in the way we play, we are very functional maybe predictable in how we play and need something different to get the opposition thinking more. I’d love to see O’Hare given more game time as I think he’d be the spark in midfield.

  79. John Lerwill

    Doug’s bad luck

    Going back to how people said that Doug had dismantled the Euro team etc etc

    I was recalling that at the start of 1983-84 Villa bought Steve McMahon – remember him? If Villa had a player like him now I would be really happy.

    Anyhow, McMahon said that one of the reasons why he came to Villa was the prospect of playing with Gordon Cowans and Gary Shaw.

    What happened? Cowans broke his leg pre-season and was out all season. Shaw was having serious injury problems by this time and played few matches.

    Now I call that bad luck that it didn’t come together. With those 3 playing at their best it would have been some team.

  80. John Lerwill

    Darren,

    Yes, clearly October is a more difficult month. But why suggest we’ve failed before we’ve started?

    Tomorrow’s match will be a tester, but I do expect Villa to win. As for next week? Same again at Small Heath.

    Actually I wouldn’t be surprised if there are a couple of changes in the Villa team.

  81. DarrenO

    Hi JL
    Ah JL

    It’s called a prediction, I don’t know the future otherwise I’d be playing the lotto and based on my vast experience I don’t think we’ll win. Don’t take it to heart if I don’t share your optimism, I want the best for Villa, I’d love to see us win but my head is ruling my heart regardless of what is driving your prediction.

    Alternatively, if you expect a win and it doesn’t happen, you will be inconsolable whereas it will meet my level of expectation, if I predict a loss and we win, I will be more elated than your level of expectation can achieve.

  82. John Lerwill

    Darren,

    My “inconsolable” days are well and truly behind me! 😀

    But I don’t see any reason to believe we’ll lose tomorrow. If we do I’ll wonder why though!

  84. DarrenO

    My father in law (RIP) accustomed as he was to great quotes would often say ‘win, lose or draw, I’ll still get my dinner’, mostly in reference to me going through extremes of emotions and in the last 5 years mostly disappointment, frustration, anger, apathy to varying degrees.

    So I get what you mean by not being affected by it as much now, do you ever question why Villa’s results/performances doesn’t have the same impact as it did in your youth, is it a realisation there is more to life or a falling out of love?

  85. John Lerwill

    Darren,

    The “love” aspect is definitely still there as the history continues to fascinate me and drives me to keep writing about it.

    Otherwise the attitude changes with the rolling back of the years and sometimes going through the same experiences over an over again. And the fact many of us put sport more in to context in the relative issues of life; sport remains of lively interest but it has less importance for me overall.

  87. John Lerwill

    JC,

    😀 Ahem … I did say that analysis has its place. 🙂 But it helps when all the facts are known. For me there are too many imponderables that go on for laymen like us to come to form accurate deductions on when it comes to the manager, the board and what goes on at the training ground.

    We can certainly try, so long as we know the limitations we’re working under.

  88. James Gill

    jl
    on one your earlier post about steve mac mahon,we also had tony dorigo, mark walters, paul birch ,paul rideout, steve hodge ,tony daley and even pug lookalike martin keown and we still didnt have a decent side because of deadly choices in managers ,is it same now

  89. John Lerwill

    James,

    Deadly’s “choice of managers” was a lot down to him keeping the costs low in a time of economic difficulty. It is a great pity thatTony left as a result of refusing to discard the European Cup players, even though several were of them getting ‘past it. In my opinion, Tony should have seen what the economic situation was (those players were on very high pay for those days) and accepted it. But that’s not how it went.

    In fact Tony was manager until the end of the 1983-84 season, the season I was talking of.

    Do you know that Villa’s players were on the highest pay in the country at the beginning of the 1980s? No wonder they had to go when there was no money coming in to pay for them.

  90. James Gill

    bit young then to think of money,but still it was a nice list of players that most went on to better things bar poor paul birch ,but he had the match with jnter under dc joe

  91. Trinity

    JL/JG
    Villa’s economic woes reminded me of a Yes Minister episode, where Jim Hacker, MP for Aston, tried to get public funding for an in the red local football club. They didn’t mention Villa specifically, but it was strongly implied. Yes Minister ran from 1980-1983. The episode was about culture. Jim Hacker argued that football is culture so should be funded as such. Correct me if I’m wrong, JL.

  92. James Gill

    jl
    think i remember reading old liverpool players saying pool were one worst payers ,that you were lucky to play for the club,but it caught up with them at end 80ths
    they hijacked our deal for david speedie from coventry who in all fairness wasnt that good

  93. John Lerwill

    Iana,

    Although it was a good series I never did see many episodes, mainly because of my business commitments at that time.

    So, sorry, I can’ t comment on that fascinating storyline – sadly I didn’t know about it! 🙁

  95. John Lerwill

    James,

    A rattling good article in the Mail today about Souness and his Liverpool days.

    First time I saw him pay was when he was with his first club, Boro. They came to Villa about 75 time and wiped the floor with us, 3-0. He was outstanding.

  97. OldVilla

    Iana, I didnt know that about the the Yes Minister stuff! I was bought the box set several years ago for Xmas, I’ll have to dig them out and take a look. Or maybe it was Yes Prime Minister, the later series……..
    I also didnt realise that Hacker was MP for Aston in it all, I seem to have missed something there.

    Tricky game today, does SB make changes or not? I’ll still go for a 2-1 win for the Villa out of blind faith lol ………
    Lets just hope the team turns up today and gives us all something to feel good about.

    Have a good day all,
    oldvilla

  100. Trinity

    The Middle-Class Pip-Off (December 1982)

    Jim Hacker…watching his local football team, Aston Wanderers. After the match he goes for a drink in the boardroom. Two of the club’s officials tell him of its financial difficulties: it will soon be calling in the receiver. They press him to try and assist them, pointing out the number of votes that may be in it. Despite his concern, he tells them that as a minister he can’t intervene in a local matter. However, one of the officials is chairman of the council’s Arts and Leisure Committee. He mentions that money is being spent on a nearby art gallery that is in a state of disrepair, and that they keep getting offers for the site. Hacker suggests they sell the art gallery and save the football club, which is feasible, subject to a planning inquiry. They go to visit the Corn Exchange Art Gallery, a Grade 2 listed building, which Hacker nevertheless describes as “hideous”….

  105. John Lerwill

    Team selection vs Fulham:

    Johnstone, Elmohamady, Terry, Chester, Hutton, Snodgrass, Hourihane, Whelan, Adomah, Onomah, Kodjia.

    Subs: Steer, De Laet, Samba, Bjarnason, O’Hare, Davis, Hogan.

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