We’re back to the league, with up-and-coming panto villains Saudi Arabia Upon Tyne visiting to continue what’s become an interesting bellwether fixture among the Other 14. And naturally, we’ve got streaks on both sides that point to very different things.

Bottom line, based on last season, Villa are overperforming while Newcastle are doing the opposite. I hear about injuries and the like, but I don’t think the toon have had it any worse than Villa in terms of impact to the overall quality and size of the squad.

So, do Villa continue their torrid run of home form, or do Newcastle end their away woes? Anyone’s guess really, but Villa history will tell us to be very nervy. And of course, it’s a very big three points.

Elsewhere, Morgan Rogers has finally been prised away from Boro to bolster Villa’s attacking ranks. That’s probably not a bad thing, and it was a pretty cheap deal, in the end. Basically traded Azaz for him in terms of immediate incoming/outgoing fee impact.

There are players we’d like to move on but seemingly can’t. And this has been a problem in recent years: transfer business that’s saddled us with players whose value has only gone down without ever really doing much for the club. That drag adds up and has a lot to do with the small squad at present. It’s one thing to lose money, quite another to have depreciating assets that can’t even justify their place in the squad and prevent us from upgrading.

Another element is the lack of throughput from the Academy, but there I think you have to be careful. To have had Grealish, Ramsey, Chuk and now maybe Tim and Kesler Hayden come through in recent years isn’t a bad return. Likewise, the players we’ve sold (which also includes Jack and Chuk). It’s not sexy, and everyone seems to want to think what we have is perhaps better than it really is, but it’s part of the modern game. And as we’ve seen, we really haven’t parted ways with any players who’ve gone on to greater heights, which seems to validate a number of managers’ unwillingness to play them. Grealish, well, I sort of feel for him. There he is seemingly finding his feet on the biggest stages, picking up silverware and finding Doku coming in to take his place almost immediately. And Carney is learning what a lot of players unfortunately find out.

Then of course I’m seeing lots of talk about ticket prices…My experience tells me that $63 in North America to see a game in an 80,000-seat stadium is a bargain. I know it’s all different economics at work in Europe, but I paid $164 to see Villa in a preseason friendly this summer. Could I do that for 19 weeks? No. But when we’re seeing the whole PSR thing play out in real time, I don’t think this is going away. Can’t comment on the resales side…It’s a much different arrangement.

Anyway, as much noise off the pitch as there is on it, atm. I’m going to have to miss the game. Don’t know whether that’s good or bad luck, but we win and lose when I watch, too, so. I’ll be checking my phone quite often.

Over to you.

Share On:
Facebook
Google +
This entry was published on / John Clark. Posted in Aston Villa Blog, Match Previews and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

The Author

Profile Photo
John Clark
John is co-owner of AVL, and has followed the Villa since the '70s. A journalist by trade, he is, by most accounts, a very nice person. You can follow me on Twitter @JClarkKohoutek. It's an astonishing experience. Or a complete waste of time.

Comments 118

  8. r0bb0

    I’m afraid they’ve looked like getting that goal although I was expecting it to come from a ball over the top.
    Our back line just isn’t looking as tight and disciplined as usual

  12. r0bb0

    Newcastle have been that little bit better rhan us, with that bit more belief and a touch of luck with balls falling nicely for them in the area.
    It’s ot over yet, but they have such a good defence it’ll take a huge effort fo us to get anything from this now.
    A bit of a reality check and hopefully we’ll use it to remotivate ourselves.

  13. James Gill

    Robbo
    We haven’t been right since gunners game
    Goals have come very hard to score,not creating chances either last few matches it’s mainly fullbacks shooting

  16. r0bb0

    Well. . . . there was doom and gloom after our 5 – 1 loss to Newcastle at the start of the season and we all know what happened after that.
    Let’s see if this takes the pressure off a bit and makes us fight hard in our next game.

  19. r0bb0

    JG, not sure I see anything that suggests Emery is a “beaten man”. He looks to be pretty much the same as usual to me.
    . . . and making decisive changes.

  25. r0bb0

    Diaby is still not the player he was at the start of the season but I can understand Emery continuing to give him time.
    We’ve all seen that there’s a class player in there and at some point he’ll regain that bit of confidence he’s lacking just now.

  26. James Gill

    Tonight we have put more corners direct into box than maybe last 3 months against a very physical side
    Nothing has fallen for us either ,just have to regroup hopefully some injuries will clear up

  27. John Clark

    Well, suppose I’m glad I missed that. Turned on to see Ollie’s goal, thought maybe…? But once the second was ruled offside, that was that.

    One thing I will say. Don’t know whether it’s by direction or not, but I’d like players taking more shots. Toward the end, too late to matter, but Dougie on left, little outside the box, looks like a channel there, and he’s never thinking about shooting. 1-3 down, go ahead and see what happens.

  28. James Gill

    Be tempted to try new lad v Sheffield utd,zanilo was awful tonight coming on,we can’t afford to start so slow we have to go at from kick off,tonight start 2nd half over 3 mins ball stayed in our half ,Newcastle pressed us and we couldn’t get out ,midfield never got up to support attack
    Really poor on and off tonight
    Diaby starting wouldn’t been my choice
    Setpieces offensively and defensively shocking
    Discipline was poor too many silly bookings
    First sub too late
    First criticism of emery ,he is not infallible

  29. John Clark

    Also think, harking back to after the Arsenal win that Emery knew very well the second half was going to be difficult.

    No longer a surprise, teams playing us differently, the inevitable dips in form, injuries, etc.

  30. John Clark

    JG,

    No, not infallible. Thought the subs were probably too late, given the score. Bailey injected quite a spark, but Diaby has tailed off badly, and Zaniolo, after all those wonder strikes that kept somehow not going in is a shadow, too. It’s not helping.

    When we started playing more directly and with more urgency, we looked like scoring. But then the players went back into safe mode. Shame about Ollie’s offside. Had that be onside, wouldn’t have bet against 3-3.

    But falling behind 0-3 shouldn’t be a place we find ourselves.

  31. James Gill

    Jc
    It’s mad to be critical, but that’s football,we have been spoiled last year,and especially with size of our squad
    After our 3 subs we had Carlos Chambers only senior players it’s crazy

  33. James Gill

    Tonight martinez was superb
    Cash did ok got caught for 3rd goal but we had ample players to cover
    Lenget couple important blocks,but as defensive pair him and konsa don’t command defensive
    Moreno no where near last years far
    Midfield woeful all of them lost discipline, think 3 booked stupid
    Diaby no confidence poor
    Watkins scored 1 had 1 disallowed by fine margins,missed header for their goal hopefully get back on goalscoring run
    Subs
    Bailey brilliant up for player of season
    Zanilo spend less time on hair moaning fouling and more running work
    Ramsay needs minutes really stop start season

  35. James Gill

    Have to congratulate ollie Watkins 50premier league goals ,I think he is fastest villa player to do so
    Big shout to Dean Smith for signing him and emery for turning ollie into player he is

  36. jbd656

    Sorry, my fault. The first game I have missed in a millenia – due to stupid day and time for a fixture. I saw the last 30 minutes – guess when we scored. Just for a giggle, I checked the ticket prices. They seem to have doubled in the 2 years since I gave up my season ticket. I will always be a Villa addict but football has really lost it’s attraction for me. It’s really just another TV program for me now. I suppose it takes the sting out of such a miserable display.

  37. Plug

    Gutted by the result. Gutted with our performance. It delivered what it deserved. Our downturn in results seems to have coincided with Pau’s injury. His last game was the win at Brentford. Unai tried him as a sub against Burnley but otherwise we haven’t seen him since.

    You have to put in a shift at the coal face in this league. I didn’t think the Wai Ayes did anything special but they did put in the effort. Our boys seemed to lack any energy at all. The opposition pressed our back line sometimes with 4 players together across the pitch. We lacked the guile to play quickly through them and into the space behind them. Instead we played back and left Emi to clean up after them. Not good enough by a long way. But for Emi, it would have been an even worse hammering.

  38. Plug

    Thought SJM and Ollie were the only players putting in any effort of the outfield players. Diaby seems lost. He’s not a big guy so balls up to him in the air with Burns behind him was brainless. His asset is pace and he needs balls played into space for him to run into. Bailey improved matters no end but the tempo from the team was so slow.

  39. Plug

    Unai has got his work cut out trying to rectify the current situation. The performance levels we saw against Citeh have vanished.

    The atmosphere at VP last night was downbeat. It picked up after Ollie scored and might have gone “fucking tonto” if his offside goal had stood. But the game was a tough one for the fans.

  44. r0bb0

    JC: “When we started playing more directly and with more urgency, we looked like scoring.”
    Totally agree. The first 60 and last 40 minutes were like chalk and cheese weren’t they?
    Was it the substitutions that made the immediate difference, or new instructions, or a bit of both?
    Whatever it was, it started to work.
    It’s almost inevitable that Newcastle would start to relax a bit after going 3 – 0 up too, so we shouldn’t just assume that the game would have turned out differently if only we’d had the substituted players on from the start.
    The forward runs and accurate through passes were starting to make such a difference, and it’s tempting to think that if only we could start that way we’d have more success.
    I suspect that the Sheffield defence will be packed so tightly that such tactics will be hard to employ in our next game though

  45. r0bb0

    Players and fans seem to have just lost a bit of their mojo lately, and maybe JG is right that even Emery is slightly jaded too. Adding the pressures of the January transfer window to a workaholic manager’s workload is bound to take a bit of a toll too, so now that’s out of the way, it might only need one win to inject a bit of enthusiasm back into everyone (including the fans) and we can get things back on track for a top 5 finish.

  46. r0bb0

    I’m sure PLug’s “fucking tonto” comment is spot on. . . .the fans are just waiting for that moment to jump start them back to life. Be nice if they were able to come out singing against Sheffield and jump start the players too!

  47. James Gill

    Kinda watching both pool and spurs games and standard of refs is shocking
    Chelsea don’t get penalty up other end pool get one
    Spurs Johnson cleaned out of it play on then Brentford denied a clear corner in same move

  49. John Clark

    I think with Emery and being ‘jaded’…He said back when we were surprisingly within a game of the top that there were 7 better teams in the race for top 7.

    He’s under no illusions.

    We, on the other hand, have sort of thought the Messiah can do anything. And he can do a lot. But a small squad that isn’t particularly fast or physical…He was never under any illusions. Even made mention in his post-match comments about the distance between Villa and toon and how it had closed by three.

    So, he’s trying to play Diaby into form (like he did Bailey, who might’ve started but for a niggle with his back), trying to work a midfield with SJM, Youri and Dougie. None of them fast or imposing. They’ll get stuck in and work, but Newcastle are a big, fast side and were man-marking and pressing relentlessly.

    Unai is very well aware Villa will need more to stake a stronger claim for top four to become a ‘given’.

  50. John Clark

    So I think that if anything is weighing on Emery it’s probably the expectations that have grown a little out of proportion. In other words, a victim of his own success, atm, and a January window that just wasn’t going to yield an overhaul, for all the reasons we know. And he’d have known that going into the season.

    He needs Diaby and Zaniolo to start producing. Well, needs Diaby to find himself, and Nicolo to start producing. I’m guessing Zaniolo needs a run of starts, but who’s he going to replace? Also needs Ramsey fit, and Digne back to rotate with Moreno.

    And then, if we’re honest, we have to look at ‘reverting to the mean’. Villa have a squad that on their day, right opponent, right kind of match (and start) can be very good. But. The squads in and around us simply have a higher base level of talent, and Villa are depending on excellent performances every match from a certain set of players that need to be at their best to compete.

    That’s a tall order over 38 games plus Europa and the FA Cup.

  51. John Clark

    Also won’t hurt to have Pau back fit. Lenglet was only ever a squad player/insurance, and I’m pretty sure Mings would beat out Carlos, who probably would’ve been the backup.

    Glad we’ve signed some promising younger players, and hoping Rogers can add a spark.

  52. James Gill

    Thank god our owners did let purslow pet project last any longer
    100 m spent and only kamara is a nailed on starter,digne has been here 2 years and really only looked good in first half of this season

  53. James Gill

    Another baggies youth player crosses the divide,a highly rated midfielder surname quinn ,that’s 3 this month alone shows how badly we were run at end Lerner time and the Chinese doc

  59. James Gill

    Typical utd deep in injury time a young kid scores a screamer to win it
    But ref again shocking onana punches wolves lad in head nothing no pen no var twice this season
    Before the winner looked a foul to wolves by touchline ref plays on
    Anthony gives away a foul grabs ball no booking

  60. r0bb0

    Those last three comments that give a good summary of where we are JC.

    Our play is a bit different now to the way we were playing a bit earlier in the season though and it could be due to a number of reasons.

    Injuries and enforced changes will inevitably have broken some of the understanding that was building between players. My memory is that earlier in the season we were quickly advancing up the pitch with slick interposing and neat triangles, with players knowing where their team mates were likely to be. Lately, we seem to have lost a lot of that exciting interplay, although it did show itself again in the last 20 minutes or so against Newcastle.

    Could it be that in trying to reduce the flow of goals conceded we have become a little more cautious and lost some of the incisive forward play that we had earlier in the season, or do we just need everyone fit and firing on all cylinders again?

    Diaby was of course on song early in the season and seems to have just lost a bit of self confidence. Ive seen comments on another blog suggesting he looks disinterested and inferring that he’s just hanging around for his pay check. Those comments say more about the person that posted them than the player. I’ve seen no indication whatsoever that he’s lost interest, but he has become more cautious and tends to look for a pass instead of shooting. We’ve heard it before, but it does just feel that he needs a goal to give him the boost he needs. Remember the stick that Ollie came in for when he went through a dry spell?
    Ps. I see that Frem is still desperate for Ollie to miss chances 🙂

  61. Plug

    The chasing pack are gathering behind us. It’s time for the players to front up and attack with energy. Anything less against Sheff U and we will come up short.

    Still no sign of Pau according to Unai. The inference I’m drawing is that his injury is worse than they are letting on.

  62. r0bb0

    I’ve seen a couple of the Newcastle media aiming a dig at Emery over not shaking the hand of a Newcastle assistant I’ve never heard of at the end of the game. Having seen the clip, I don’t think Emery shunned him, he just didn’t notice an insignificant man who thinks he matters more than he does.

  63. r0bb0

    Plug, yes the Pau injury is disappointing. He seems like a player who would ‘want’ to play, so unlike Duran or Traore, it does seem likely that the injury is more serious that was initially thought which is really disappointing.

    I’ve seen some fans praising Traore and wishing him well. . . . .as far as I can see, he was taking the piss . . . . injured for Villa games, but remarkably fit and healthy again when internationals came round.

  64. r0bb0

    That wasn’t a dig at you by the way JG, I completely agree with you that he had the potential to excite. . . . .it’s just a shame that he seemed less and less willing to do so for Villa.

  65. r0bb0

    JG, it’s hard not to be nervous when we’re going to be officiated by a referee who has a ‘habit’ of seeing us lose or occasionally draw.
    It ‘may’ be coincidence, in which case, let’s hope the probability gods finally smile on us tomorrow!

  66. r0bb0

    I’m struggling to know what to think about the Callum Chambers situation.
    Can any of us honestly say that in the same situation, wed prefer to move to another club on much lower wages but at least play football?
    I’d ‘like’ to think that’s what I’d do, but I honestly don’t know.
    If he’s putting in the effort in training and always making himself available, as seems to be the case, then it was just the club’s fault for making a poor decision.

  67. r0bb0

    Plug, yes the chasing pack are indeed gathering behind us, but to be honest, when I saw the table I was surprised, and reassured to see that the gap is still a significant one. Obviously we need to start winning again soon, but it does highlight just how well we did in the first half of the season!
    Pretty much every team has a dip in form at some point and margins are always so tight that it won’t take much for us to regain the momentum again . . . .it’d be lovely if it happened tomorrow!

  68. James Gill

    Sheffield utd what does emery do
    Shake up back 4 yes ,would prefer he goes to a back 5 rather playing konsa right back and cash right side of midfield
    Who to drop in midfield, anyone of them they all have let discipline go in last 6 weeks
    Options up front Duran out as is zanilo, Rogers is available
    I would try
    Martinez Cash lenget konsa Carlos moreno
    Kamara Luis mcginn
    Watkins Bailey
    Subs
    Tielmens ramsay diaby rogers

  70. r0bb0

    The key question for today could be ‘who can unpick a tight defence?’

    The most likely contender just now seems to be Bailey but when firing on all cylinders, Luiz and Tielemans seem to be the next most likely. Diaby has the potential to do it but he seems to be lacking the spark just now.

    It’s always nice to have potential game changers on the bench, when opposition defences are losing a bit of mental and physical sharpness. As Plug has inferred in that team choice, maybe Diaby should take a turn at being the man to take advantage of the late match tiredness today instead of Bailey, who surely deserves a starting role if he’s fully fit.

  71. r0bb0

    Plug, I imagine you’re right that he’ll put Rogers on the bench to start with.
    I see some Villa fans writing Rogers off already, frequently because he’s ‘only’ a Championship player. It’s easy to forget that the Championship is ranked the 11th best league in the world, and, is ranked as being significantly more competitive than the Australian A league (ranked 29th) from which we’ve signed Joe Gauci, and the Serbian super league (not in the top 30) from which we’ve signed Kosta Nedeljkovic.
    Let’s not forget also that we signed John McGinn from the Scottish Premier league (ranked 17th), Ollie Watkins from the Championship, and of course the never to be forgotten Trezeguet from the Turkish league (ranked 12th)
    Let’s not write off players before they’ve even had a chance to work under Emery and settle into playing in the Premier league. Let’s not also forget that it took over a season for Leon Bailey to start showing the form that he’s capable of, so let’s give him a ‘proper’ settling in period and not enjoy jumping on his back at the first opportunity (and yes, I deliberately used the word ‘enjoy’ because I do think that it makes some people feel better if they can have a go at someone else, who can’t answer back)

  72. Plug

    Anybody who thinks the Laandan clubs are not favoured take note. Villa get a £180K fine for the Brentford fracas. Brentford get £175K fine. So the EPL reckon we were the more culpable.

    It’s OK then to have fans abusing our centre forward all game. It’s OK for Ghoddos to wade into our goal celebration. It’s OK for Mee to knee cap our player. It’s OK for Maupay to barge into Emi as he runs past him. It’s OK for Maupay to throw himself to the turf. But it’s not OK for Emi to push Maupay back or have Kamara trying to push back out of control players. Guilty as charged guv. The punishment handed down stinks.

  73. Plug

    RoBB0, I have complete trust in Unai. He’s only human and as such can make mistakes. But his overall performance is sparkling and he gets the most out of his squad which his predecessor was in danger of relegating. I hope he’s with us a long time because if so, he’ll build a great team.

  74. r0bb0

    Plug, completely agree. the £5k lower fine for Brentford is a deliberate and shabby was of trying to signal that Villa were the more guilty party. As you laid out, it’s hard to see how an impartial adjudicator could come to that decision. I’m not sure it’s conscious bias. . . .I suspect that the bias is so ingrained, that they don’t even know they’re doing it.

  97. Plug

    The Villa Boys from Aston….We travel near and far…

    Got lucky with the clean sheet. Take your foot off the gas and start coasting and you’ll ship a goal.

  103. r0bb0

    So Ollie Watkins is the first player to score 10 goals and 10 assists in any of Europe’s top 5 leagues.
    So at this most difficult of times, I’d like you all to find it in your hearts to spare a thought. . . .for Frem.

  104. r0bb0

    Anyone heard anything about Konsa?
    Before he went off yesterday he’d been one of my men of the match. He’s controlling the board like a fancy winger at times these days, but has been sensible enough not to take real risks in dangerous areas. I was gutted for him not scoring the goal after that fantastic run and hope he’s just got a bit of a bruise, with no lasting damage.

  105. r0bb0

    Also really pleased for Tielemans. What a contrast from his sulky demeanour at the start of the season. He’s a perfect example of how Emery gives opportunities to those players who deserve it and he’s one that is now repaying that trust.
    After a bit of a lull, it was great to see both him and Luiz back to their best.

  106. r0bb0

    I was gutted for Diaby. He did so very well to create the goalscoring opportunity for himself . . . .back to the player we saw right at the start. . . .only for the keeper to make his best save of the match. It could have been so good for him to see that one go in.

  108. r0bb0

    I’m procrastinating over a job I can’t really be arsed with, so instead of doing that, I thought I’d have a look at how many points we need to achieve a 5th place finish this year (on the assumption that England does indeed gain an extra Champion’s league place)
    Over the last 10 years, the average points needed for a 5th place finish have been 68, and only twice has the 5th place team achieved more than 70 points, with a 72 and a 75. On average therefore, we’d need a further 22 points from our last 15 games, or 1.5 points a game compared with the 2 points a game we’ve achieved so far. If this season matched the record 75 (which looks unlikely at this stage), we’d need 29 points or 1.9 points a game instead of the 2 achieved so far.
    It’s actually a bit better than that though, because all we need, is to have more points than the 6th place team, and over the past decade, the average points to end up 6th has been just 64. Only twice over that period did the 6th place team gain as many as 69 points. On average therefore, we’d only need another 18 points, or 1.2 points a game, so a win and 2 draws out of every 5 games, or just 6 wins out of our last 15 games.
    You’d not want to gamble on the 64 points, but it does show that right now, there are no ‘must win’ games, but every win we do achieve moves us a good way towards the Champion’s league!

    That’s my glass half full comment for this afternoon.
    (over the last 3 years we’ve been experimenting with making our own flavoured gins and wines and cider, but never labelling them so I’ve just been tasting which ones we want to keep. . . . that might also explain why I can’t be arsed with reading a complicated contract just now!)_

  110. r0bb0

    Lose to united and we’re only 5 points clear of them. . .win and its 11 points and they’re out of the game. . . . yeah. . .did I say that next week’s game is a must win one?

  111. Plug

    Yep r0bBo, Manure next weekend may not be a must win game, but if we do win it, we’ll be looking good for the Champions League. There’s a lot riding on it. Every incentive for the players. West ‘Aamm fell away a little today. Great for us. But Manure are ominous.

    On the other side of the coin, we are 5 points off the summit (possibly 6) with 15 games left. Any of us would have taken that last August.

  112. John Clark

    Traveling, missed the game, saw 3-0 and 5-0 on my phone. Made my day. Then saw Spurs drew. Even better.

    Looking forward to the replay when I get home tonight.

  113. James Gill

    A good weekend,now for Chelsea me I would go at nearly full strength maybe ramsay starts get more minutes, don’t know how far digne is from full fitness hoping torres is fit for man u
    Chelsea were awful last 2 games so a quick start would be nice as for utd ,6 points from last 2 without bei g convincing, think konsa as right back is a must blend of Carlos and lengett is a better fit

  116. r0bb0

    I’d go for a full side tomorrow too. I reckon it would be good to rebuild a winning mentality (and it would be nice to get to the next round wouldn’t it?)

  117. John Clark

    r0bb0,

    Thanks for the points analysis…we are getting close. You’re right, if we can beat United, it gets a lot closer to just us and Spurs for 4th, which bodes well for 5th.

  118. John Clark

    Think Emery will go strong, too, r0bb0, wanting to build on the goals finally returning and Chelsea back stumbling.

    Behind the scenes, any changes would be down to knocks, load management, and United.

    Will really be good to get Pau back. But at least Lenglet has been entirely adequate if not brilliant. Need to make sure Garnacho doesn’t get the better of us again. He really turned the game single-handedly.

Leave a Reply