“Our new Constitution is now established, and has an appearance that promises permanency; but in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.”
—Benjamin Franklin, in a letter to Jean-Baptiste Leroy, 1789
Benjamin Franklin stated in the early years of the life of the United States of America that “nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.” Franklin promised stability and a new dawn for a population of settlers, a group who felt cautiously optimistic about their future.
In that sense, Franklin’s words echo the view at Villa a mere 18 months ago. that of establishing permanence after a period of disarray, even if the club’s instability was based on prior lax spending and poor judgement rather than America desire for stability following their battle for independence from the British.
Getting back to Franklin’s quote, nowadays his words are less definite. Through the use of creative accountancy, that small list of two items has been further reduced to just death given the power of multinational corporations to avoid once was seen to be inevitable – taxation.
One thing that most certainly remains unavoidable is death, and it a potential slow death of Aston Villa which appears to be looming on the horizon, with the club looking increasingly underfunded and understaffed.
Following the loss to Stoke City on Saturday, Villa made it three losses in a row, with only a single goal scored, a worrying statistic for a team that has struggled to score despite four strikers regularly being in the team.
It would be bad enough if Villa’s issues extended solely to attacking problems but, as we know, problems run far deeper than that.
All Villa fans are aware of the injuries that have plagued, and continue to plague, the squad. Between the loss of Jores Okore and Ron Vlaar, the recent injury to Antonio Luna, and the erratic form of Matthew Lowton, Villa’s defence have been suffering.
At the weekend, the back four again looked like men who hardly knew each other, never mind played together, and it is this issue that makes Villa’s plight even more severe than lacking goals.
Whilst it is fairly obvious that failing to score goals, as well as continuing to concede them, is a recipe for disaster, Paul Lambert sits in an unenviable position as manager of Villa. Yes, Lambert has made mistakes during his tenure, but the recent budgetary restrictions are illustrating, albeit implicitly, that Villa could be on life support if January does not come with additional funding.
Last week, the manager was quoted saying that owner Randy Lerner was a great chairman to work under, implying that he chairman is backing the longer term vision which means that Villa’s project may well not be one that is finished quickly.
In the abstract, the statement is a positive one as Villa could certainly do without the tumult of yet another managerial sacking, followed by a search of an increasingly smaller set of names.
Looking deeper though, Lambert’s comments appear to illustrate something else – that Lerner is now reticent to spend money to fix problems, mainly because of the significant cost of past mistakes.
Now whilst sustainability is a positive move by any club, there has to be some balance to the situation. At present, it seems that both the manager and the chairman are happy with each other – though for differing reasons – although this relationship ignores on group completely.
Who? Why, the fans of course. Despite Lambert making iterative progress, and being ahead of the curve in terms of value for money spent, there are pressing issues that need to be addressed, some of which require money and/or added experience.
Whilst I approve of the long term ethos to bring players through from smaller clubs, the road is long and offers no guarantee of success. When you consider that Villa lost Messrs Young, Downing, Milner, and Barry to bigger clubs, it is clear that there are issues that will threaten the togetherness of the squad.
This isn’t to say that the players don’t respect the manager – they do obviously – but that there comes a time in the career of most players where they outgrow the club. We’ve already seen Fabian Delph take a commanding role in midfield, being statistically one of the best in the country. If you were Delph – a non-local with clear potential – would you stay at a club where its destination may well take so long that your career is over before they get there?
It is that specific issue that threatens the sensible, if restrained, plan of Lerner. Sure, play within your means, but be flexible enough to have some leeway, some fund that covers unexpected issues, just like you or I have when running a household.
If Villa don’t allow the manager money to fix the well illustrated issues, and they resolve to leave their chances in the hands of fate, the owner has to realise that he is playing a dangerous game of chicken.
Why? Whilst Villa fans are loyal to their team, they don’t take kindly to being treated like mugs. When one considers the wider issues affecting the UK economy, attending football games is a luxury, even at the (comparatively) low prices Villa charge.
Add into that a lack of real entertainment, is it any wonder we face falling attendances? My primary concern for Villa at present isn’t so much even the style of football, or the results, it is that the owner’s silence and past actions show a ruthless side – one that will throw the manager under the bus if it suits.
Don’t believe me? Past experiences show that Villa’s owner takes action when he wants to – he signed Darren Bent despite Gerard Houllier’s preference for Karim Benzema, he illustrated his focus on money when agreeing to keep Stephen Ireland in a swap deal with James Milner despite having no manager in place to judge him good value, and he hired and fired Alex McLeish with no thought for the ramifications.
So when statements start surfacing about backing the manager with his support regardless of form, concern arises because it appears what the owner wants is a yes man, someone to work under his budget until he decides things have to change. Whilst that seems to extend to backing the Lambert project longer term – something I actually support in terms of stability – the concern is that it is on the condition of reduced budget (and subsequent competitiveness), and with the Sword of Damocles swinging over Lambert.
Some will consider that a good thing – that Lambert isn’t untouchable – but if history tells one thing, it is that faith in the club’s decisions is more than a little lacking. No, Villa aren’t facing issues to the extent of Vincent Tan at Cardiff City, or even Dr. Aseem Allam at Hull City, but they are certainly facing a challenging situation, one where January is critical.
If support isn’t offered in financial terms, a real gamble is being taken with the club at the expense of the fans. We know already that Lerner is reticent to walk away from the club with a loss in monetary terms, and that Villa’s value – even with a reduced wage bill – is nowhere near a £200m level asking price meaning, in short, Lerner is here to stay.
So, with that in mind, focus must turn to January. No, the Christmas fixtures aren’t over yet, but with issues in every area of the pitch, Villa need help to progress and avoid another relegation battle.
Will Lerner supply the funds? We have until the end of next month to find out, but if Lambert is forced to buy cheap again instead of original targets like Moussa Sissoko and Phillip Coutinho, will Villa even deserve to progress? Here’s one fan who is concerned this may be a gamble too far for Villa s owner at a time where the club need money to invest in quality if they are to move forwards.
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