Grateful for Villa’s Three Disappointments: Season’s Musings 1

A fair bit on from the dramatic and disappointing final day that saw Villa miss out on Champions League football on goal difference, and although there are minor-key rumblings, there’s been a distinct lack of activity. Emi, Leon, and Ollie seem to be our biggest question marks, with others saying, “who knows?” when asked. But I think that has as much to do with Villa as it does them. Anyone could be on the chopping block for the right money, basically. So, even though I started this up a while a ago, not much has really changed yet.

Despite securing a Europa League spot for Villa’s third straight European qualification, it felt like a failure not getting back into the Champions League, and that really has as much to do with recruitment and PSR as it does meaningful and fun football next season.

So, here’s what I saw looking back (and what I see moving forward).

Being realistic, Villa over performed in the Champions League, aided by a relatively favorable path. They made the most of it, though, and no shame bowing out to PSG after splitting the two legs. That third goal in added time at the Parc des Princes seemed telling on the night and indeed turned out to be the difference. But Villa’s fightback after falling 0-2 behind at Villa Park will live long in the memory right with beating Bayern again, and it could well have gone to extra time. Alas. Disappointment #1, but hardly fatal.

Then of course there was the FA Cup semifinal loss to Palace, which will go down as one of the most inexplicable capitulations of recent years. I get wanting silverware of any kind, but I’ve never been too bothered about the cups, the way they’ve been sidelined. But the FA Cup does still hold some glory, and—finally having made a decent showing—it was more than galling not to put up a better show on the day, especially since you know exactly what Palace are going to do. Disappointment #2.

The Premier League, well, it was once again down to the finest of margins. I went into the final day believing Villa needed, and would, beat United and that Forest stood the best chance of giving Villa the boost they needed to climb over Chelsea. Instead, Villa and Forest lost and it was Newcastle who surprised on the day falling to Everton.

It didn’t need to be so dramatic. There were plenty of points Villa left on the field throughout the season. That these largely coincided with post-Champions League matches has not gone unnoticed. But again, looking at the run they put together down the stretch, it was a little surprising and gratifying that Villa were still in the frame. But the dropped points, and controversial and wrong decisions on the day—combined with a strange timidity that echoed the Palace loss—conspired to see Villa lose and fall short on goal difference. Disappointment #3.

Obviously it seems the side still lack a certain big-game mentality, despite the PSG and Bayern results. Some of that’s down to the players, their makeup, their experiences. Some of it’s down to the quality/composition of the side, the mesh of strengths and weaknesses. Some of it’s probably down to managerial decisions. It could even have something to do with Emery’s intensity, but his European trophies suggest otherwise.

Naturally, my first instinct was to thump everyone over the head with a single catch-all write-up, but I think I’ll break up and not quite do a review, as such, but more of a stock-taking and look forward based on what we’ve learned. It’s hard to separate things sometimes, but I’ll try and I’ll start with the squad.

Squad Evolution
I’m going to back up a little bit because for all the changes, it’s still hard to believe that Matty Cash, Ezri Konsa, Tyrone Mings, Emi Martinez, Ollie Watkins, and Leon Bailey are Smith signings. Basically half the outfield on a given day and a keeper who goes on to be named the world’s best. Douglas Luiz was in there, too, and of course Ramsey was already here. Then of the course came the Grealish sale, with Buendia and Ings coming in alongside Bailey. It wasn’t the best use of £100m, even though I liked Buendia. Barkley’s first go-round looked a masterstroke until he got hurt and it didn’t. Even Lamar Bogarde was signed in 2020.

Gerrard didn’t get much right, but Boubacar Kamara and Lucas Digne turned out to be good signings. There was the Coutinho excitement and consequent disappointment. Diego Carlos, whose tenure was cursed from the outset but seemed to lack the pace and concentration required. Calum Chambers, Robin Olsen, Leander Dendoncker. Gerrard wasn’t here long, just about ruined the side, but I’ll give him credit for Kamara and Digne.

For his part, Emery has brought in a lot of players: Jhon Duran, Alex Moreno, Moussa Diaby, Pau Torres, Youri Tielemans, Morgan Rogers, Amadou Onana, Ian Maatsen, Ross Barkley, and Donyell Malen are the important ones.

The more experimental and/or hole-filling arrivals have included a number of loanees and young prospects: Clement Lenglet, Nicolo Zaniolo, Kosta Nedeljkovic, Joe Gauci, Lino Sousa, Jaden Philogene (funny one, that), Samuel Iling-Junior, Enzo Barrenechea, Andres Garcia, Lewis Dobbin. Then of course the big the roll of the dice on Marcus Rashford, Marco Asensio, and Axel Disasi.

I’m missing one or two, I’m sure. But overall, due to financial constraints, Villa have had to make a number of interesting and forced moves often in a flurry of last-minute activity. They’ve had to speculate on developmental players, which points to a lack of quality Academy output. In the near term, anyway. Some of this is simply about turning a quick buck after a test drive.

Obviously, the constraints don’t come from the owners.

So we’ve gotten used to a lot of turnover on the roster, but not so much turnover in the starting XI (until recently), or the core squad. How would things have gone if we didn’t have to sell Luiz? Or if the Saudis hadn’t shown for Diaby? If City hadn’t decided to meet Grealish’s release clause? The Saudis again with Duran? So many forks in the road.

The Current Crop
I’m probably going to sound a bit harsh regarding certain players. And it’s not to pick on anyone. Apart from Gerrard, I’ve liked everyone associated with the club since Deano arrived. (Maybe not Zaniolo. Or Purslow, in retrospect.). The players have all worked hard and they’ve grown. They don’t make excuses or embarrass anyone. And they’re all good enough as a group to get to the last eight in Europe.

But I’m going to apply one of my basic metrics on players and coaches: Who’s interested in them? Are they CL sides where these players come in and start? Because that’s really what matters. And even then, we’re talking teams that can afford to take their time, integrate and evaluate, or rotate in many cases.

Only Emi, Ollie and maybe Youri would be bought as starters. Kamara. Youri might be a situational player elsewhere. Rogers and Ramsey? They’d have a lot more cushion around them and wouldn’t be vital to any suitor’s fortunes. See Grealish, Jack.

When you look at the squad through this lens, you realize that at the level Villa aspire to, several just aren’t at the next level. Cash, Konsa, and Torres, for example. Mings for his part continues to defy expectations, but isn’t the ball-player or set of knees you need. Clubs above us aren’t interested in any of them. Mings is still probably the best of the lot.

Digne’s getting on, will be coming into the last year of his contract and is on high wages. Maatsen seems to have stepped up his defending. But in Emery’s system, the LB is about attack as much as anything, and Maatsen is very quick and good with the ball. Digne is probably good insurance for someone, and Maatsen might walk into certain set-ups, especially if they have a glaring need.

Super John? No one bigger is interested, and I now see him more as a squad player. It seems Emery does, too.

Bailey? He showed up season before last with a lot of big moments, but unless there’s just something about Villa, I don’t really see him nailing down a guaranteed place in any top-16 or 20 club.

Onana would probably have suitors with a full season under his belt and I’ve seen the odd article or two. Barkley was bought as a squad player and if he stays healthy, he’ll be important for depth.

Asensio. Good enough? Yes. The right fit? Dunno. Undoubted quality, but it seemed a bit like we needed to shoehorn him in somewhat. Disasi, not fast or agile enough, in the end, but I did like him, probably better suited to a deeper-lying set-up. Rashford? Didn’t see enough to justify the money, in the end, Champions League or not. But being able to bring him and Asensio in…That showed what depth looks like and it helped immensely.

So What?
What this all means is that Emery once again overachieved. Not just that he’s good, but he’s getting more out of less than any manager around or above him.

The mismatch in quality and physical characteristics among the players is not anyone’s fault (who’s currently in house). It’s obviously the cumulative effect of FFP and PSR. We’ve made do with certain players like Cash who probably should’ve been gone but has been just enough to let us focus elsewhere. And we’ve been able to add with Onana, Rogers, and Maatsen. Malen, too, I hope. Pau, bit of a miss.

But overall, given Villa’s lack of pace and physicality, and the number of players who are playing at their ceiling, we’ve done remarkably well. The level we’re chasing feature XIs who all expect to win matches because they truly believe, as individuals, that they’re as good as anyone out there. That’s the belief I think we lack, and you don’t get that belief from the occasional epic performance spurred on by desperation, because that’s a level you simply can’t reach every match.

In short, Villa remain a set of mismatched parts in many ways. What’s changed is that Emery has known what to do with them.

Takeaways
To me, that’s Emery’s and Villa’s challenge and it’s not a small one. The wheeling and dealing we’ve seen show that Emery and Monchi are up to it as far as keeping pace, but getting over the top remains hard. There will be a tough decision or two this summer. The January dealings suggested maybe not desperation, but a very clear appreciation of the window of opportunity. They simply can’t upgrade as quickly as they’d like.

What would help immensely is for one or two of the development/project players to break through. Barrenechea is said to have had a very good season, but it’s also sounded like he’s quite happy at Valencia. Kosta also sounds quite happy at Leipzig. Iling-Jr will probably just be someone we hope to make a little money on. But that’s where we need some wins.

The other element of difficulty is that the financial constraints make it hard to implement a sweeping change. Villa could really use a different back three, an established left-winger, an understudy to Ollie. Malen needs to make the right his and perhaps and allow Rogers to move back inside. A team that can press, get up and down the pitch, contest more duels. And a few players behind them. But the saleable assets we do have are pretty integral to keeping up with the pack, never mind pulling clear.

So it will be a more interesting summer than I’d like.

And beyond sweeping change, the rules keeping us down interrupt development and depth. We can’t really build and sell based on our own vision. We need an XI that most anyone would be taking a look at and another five behind them making a case to start. We’d have had a rather different side last season if we were allowed.

In Emery I trust, I really do. But he’s playing a far trickier hand than Arteta or Maresca. He doesn’t have an underachieving side full of expensive players to sell to fund refreshes. Quite the opposite. Even Newcastle have been building on a better, deeper base since Villa came up. That he has to keep juggling so many legacy pieces while having to sell a gem every window is far from ideal. And yet it’s now year three of European football coming.

Do I think he can keep us where we’re at? I do. That’s why even though he’s been thrown a lot of plaudits, his work has still been underrated.

Over to you.