Nobody likes to lose, and the Saturday game was no exception. Despite bookies suggesting Aston Villa stood no chance – they were 15/1 on Friday night to win – there’s always that hope that we have as fans that maybe, just maybe, we can sneak something. As it happened, we didn’t. Instead, the general rule of football – the team with better players generally wins – applied perfectly.

What that illustrated for me, as a fan, was just how far Villa are behind the top teams and how, with Financial Fair Play increasingly clicking into gear, things are unlikely to change any time soon.

As we all know and understand, Financial Fair Play is the sour, but necessary, medicine for football to avoid casualties like Portsmouth in future. Clubs should, obviously, care about their ability to act in a sustainable and considerate manner.

The above sounds inarguable and, in basic terms, it is – any business should account for itself. However, the truth is that many clubs who are successful now – our opponents Chelsea being one – have not followed such a logic.

Instead, they – like Manchester City besides them – have eschewed the business logic, and have been built on filthy lucre. Yes, both clubs will argue that now – once they have been forced to comply with rules on expenditure – that their books are in order. What that hides – albeit in plain sight – is that these are entities that have benefitted from limitless spending.

Don’t get me wrong – FFP is something that makes sense for most clubs, albeit for differing reasons. For clubs like Villa, FFP means avoiding the recent issues with boom and bust. For the top clubs though, FFP is the greatest method of instilling the order, allowing for big clubs to be big for the foreseeable future, or for at least as long as their turnovers will allow.

For Villa fans, the installation of such a plan is the double edged sword that will be frustrating many. Financials are arguably the least interesting part of football, even though they are obviously relevant. For most people watching the game, they don’t care – and don’t want to care – about how the money is being spent so long as the team continues to do well.

What it means though is that whoever buys the club from Randy Lerner – and whenever that occurs – is fundamentally hamstrung by business logic. Following the standard rules of business – sustainability over a period of time – the only interested parties are those who can develop the club organically, and over an extended period of building.

No, throwing money at the situation isn’t a guarantee of success, but it is one less option that is available to Villa – and any other club up for sale – if they can find a buyer. Instead, the club have to build up turnover over time, hoping they can make as few mis-steps in the short term.

This means there will be no Sheikh Mansour equivalent arriving in B6. There will be no ability for an oligarch to bombard the Villans with cash until they rise up under the buoyancy that money can provide.

This may sound bleak and, depending on just how much time you have left on your clock, it may well be. The truth is that even with little mistakes, Villa could be ten or more years from the top.

No, that doesn’t mean the club can’t win things, or even get to the top with a little bit of fortune, but it does mean that Villa – unfortunately – don’t belong at the top table anymore.

Can they get there in the future, with the right investment? Yes. As an entity, Villa have a proud tradition that could draw an investor into a love affair with the club, but it will take time to build up – washing away Villa’s unfashionable status in terms of recruiting players and creating a consistently higher-than-average increase in level of turnover.

So, Villans, it is going to take time. It may not be a nice thing to hear – especially with the optimism some have cultivated with a potential change of hands ownership wise – but at least Villa are managing to build from a platform of the richest league in the world, much to the envy of teams in the divisions below.

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Matt Turvey
Matt is the owner of, and chief writer for, Aston Villa Life. He is also a columnist for the Wolverhampton Express & Star, appearing in the Kick Off pullout on Saturdays and the Final Whistle pullout the Monday after Aston Villa play, as well as every Thursday as a blogger on their website. He has previously been featured as a writer on Football365 and Life's A Pitch, and was a regular pundit for Sports Tonight TV on Sky.

Comments 50

  1. Graham O'Gara

    Matt great article as always…. you are forgetting one thing tho!!! That is the manipulation of turn over but ways of sponsorship. As ManCity showed in the courts when questioned about the “Value” of one of their sponsorship deals, there are ways of pouring money in to a club and being able to spend, spend , spend….

    The rules may stop your average billionaire from playing a game of fantasy football with our club… but when you’re talking about some one with mega money and a billion to spare then you can out think and outmaneuver those UEFA big wigs and their silly FFP deal with the big clubs.

    The FFP is a deal to keep the big clubs happy and the ECL “strong”… thinly veiled as a means to offer football a more competitive and financially secure future…. I fart in the general direction of Platini

    I have no grudge with Chelsea or ManCity and their success, the petty hatred toward them is born out of jealously of their situation, nothing more. I’d take what they have in an instant.

    Go get Uzmanov Lerner, let him tie Uefa’s rule men in knots with massive sponsorship deals from his many companies…

  2. Mark King

    morning matt- ah yes the unpalatable truth that nobody wants face up to, Villa are not a huge world wide draw as chelsea, arsenal ,man utd, Liverpool and man city have become. when you look at these teams turnover it dwarfs ours even tottenham and newcastles does. what does this mean for us? it means we can’t afford huge wages. the big guns wages as a percentage of their turnover is vastly different to ours. Mr fox has been brought in to raise our profile and up revenue but without a real product to sell on the pitch it’s a tough sell.
    there is no doubt that after the initial attempt for us to join the top trough badly managed by both Lerner and MON we were in the shit. It appears the gate has now been shut on that avenue and the only real way forward is slow and steady.
    whether we have or will get someone astute enough to take us the southampton route ( my preference) I don’t know if it will happen. yes we have history and have won things but it means nothing as there are plenty of others in the doldrums that can claim to have been great 100 years ago or less. its all about the money? no, its all about how good you are with the money and at football in general at our level. I say that with a heavy heart because we are without doubt second tier at best financially and third tier footballing wise.
    If things don’t change and quick the heart of this team will exit and we will be left with more survival football for the foreseeable (yes it could get worse) . I can’t blame Lambert as its clearly points first, damage limitation stuff and I believe he is of a level and thats it. we have cried for more creativity only to see Orient beat us with the more creative players in. they didn’t convert chances just as badly as the first team. Bentekes return has to work there is no other choice until January when we could gain a couple and lose our best.
    happy days 🙂 and I hope saints win the league.

    http://www.theguardian.com/football/2013/apr/18/premier-league-finances-club-by-club

    http://www.saintsfc.co.uk/news/article/31032014-financial-results-201213-1455995.aspx

    http://www.fcbusiness.co.uk/news/article/newsitem=2972/title=aston+villa+post+losses+%C2%A342m+in+latest+accounts

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/manchester-city/10768827/Manchester-Citys-wage-bill-is-highest-in-world-sport.html

  4. John Lerwill

    Matt,

    It’s a very interesting article, but it leaves out the exceptions. i.e. that Southampton are showing that you can apply sound foundational business logic and make progress. For goodness sake, they’ve had to re-build thir team over the summer but they’re still in second place.

    Whether Southampton are still there in 6 months time is a probably a good question, but at least they’ve shown the verve and nervelessness to apply commonsense business principles and then giving the Premiership a run for its money.

    If Southampton can do it then AVFC should be in an even better position to do it. AND getter further forward based on those principles. It kinda reminds me (as a historian) of how the Villa used to be run.

  5. runtings

    Hi Matt

    i am against FFP rules as for me i think it means if you are already a big club you can stay there and take teams below you,s best players and give them pay rises –also the chasing teams will find it alomost impossible to catch up as they can’t match the wages clubs already in europe can offer

    a more sencible way would be for teams to live within there means so that if a chairman with money takes over and wants to splash cash to make up ground on the teams above they can do as long as they write off any dept

    Not suprised with the chelsea result but a little disappointed with our lack of any real threat duing the game
    we did try to pass more which was a bonus

    Looks like delph will be a gooner soon enough and vlaar will be off — the amount of time it is taking for grealish to sign means he is also edging closer to the exit
    We still have tekkers but for how long – this is worrying

  9. B62 Villa

    No one is going to argue FFP is ruining football, creating glass ceilings and huge disparities between clubs.
    But there is no doubt Lerners reign has been and continues to be a disaster. We are being overtaken year in year out by lesser clubs. It’s not just that we are easily turned over by the big boys, it’s the ease at which they do it, Arsenal and Chelsea didn’t have to break sweat in order to roll us over.
    Our lack of attacking/creative play is a real worry( well for everyone bar Lambert), and all our eggs are being placed in the Benteke basket, the pressure is mounting on his return to save us.
    It does seem like Groundhog Day at VP, Lambert rarely changes things up, rarely goes for it, despite the Bollox he spouts in interview, and we rarely win at home, the football isn’t great and we seem to be accepting of defeat and lack of ambition.
    Yes the money clubs should beat us but like Leicester /Swansea/Saints etc show if you do have ambition sometimes it can pay dividends, but as 8 shots on target in 6 games shows, adventure and ambition simply aren’t in Lamberts DNA, and we have 4 more years of this tripe, god knows where we will end up with these idiots running the show, we are just treading water until a new owner rides in to save us from this nightmare.

  12. Mark King

    it was mourinho taking the piss frem, normally you shake hands at full time. mourinho was leaving before the end to say the jobs already done. I don’t blame the pair of them

  14. Frem

    Mark- he normally always goes down the tunnel a few mins earlier. The job was done with in 7 mins, he might as well of gone of home them. He probably walked down the tunnel thinking ” ah well, that was the easiest game we’ve played all season” then Lamberk says we we’re confotable!?!?!? Crazy crazy man

    What will change when the beast is back ? A new formation? Actually attack like 442? Or as he’s already playing one striker on the wing who he won’t drop, I’m guessing he will do the same with gabby and just move him on the wing and keep playing 460

  15. SuperBox

    Interesting stuff Matt.

    FFP is trying to save football from itself. Total and utter disgregard for sensible financial foundations for clubs and some shady ‘accountancy’ methods have lead us here. It is virtually impossible to have as dramatic effect on clubs as some would like as the FFP will always be behind the curve, stopping new loopholes from being exploited.

    At best it will ensure clubs operate ‘within their means’ but you could spend a longtime arguing about what that actually means. As we have seen, clubs have already exploited the vagueness around turnover being a measure of your means.

  16. Frem

    Jack Grealish will be even further down the pecking order when he’s back. Him self and Zoggy won’t get a look in. Must be hard for two wingers on the bench watching two strikers playing on the wings

  17. Frem

    Money isn’t everything. Atletico won the league whilst spending less than us. Get a good manager and you never know. We’ve got to wait a few years for that unless The new owners come in for 2018 and pull the trigger

  19. Frem

    Cissoko would have scored his 3rd own goal if Willian didn’t tap it in. That’s worrying.

    I said last Season that Guzan saved nothing, everything on target went it. Seems to be a similar thing this season. Stoke he had to do nothing, Newcastle nothing, Liverpool nothing, but when he does against Arsenal, hull and Chelsea, we concede. Arsenal couldn’t have had many more than 3 shots on target.

  20. Frem

    Newcastle are a bloody poor side. Remember our ultra defensive 11 guys behind the ball display against them?

    Pardrew will be gone.

    West Brom own and played well, stoke about to win, we got slaughtered. Horrible weekend of football

  21. Lionheart

    Frem.. doesn’t matter how many your up.. Jose tries to be c0cky.. looks cool when it isn’t ur team.. fair play to PL and RK for snubbing him.. your being blinded by the result and PL to see that point..

    Also can you tell me which of the Chelsea goals could Guzan have really saved..

    In June it look like we were doomed.. so yes i am happy that it seems we will be staying up.. i have already said that on numerous occasions..With regards to style of play.. i def am not happy with that.. esp now the manager has been handed a four year contract and we are not thinking short term.. as in somehow surviving..

    I think most thought we would lose to Chelsea and Arsenal.. it is more how we played and approached games.. we were poor second half against Hull.. Newcastle could have beaten us and Stoke was another good defensive display.. after the first two seasons and the start to this one albeit with experienced players.. there is a pattern developing.. and going by that it seems even when play the likes of QPR West Ham Sunderland.. we will have very much the same approach..

    Even more so when you think our CM don’t score goals and we do not really have any width.. and that is PL’s fault..

  22. Frem

    My Career at Villa Park isn’t over says Joe Bennett

    Fantastic !!!

    Sounds more and more like Vlaar and Delph will be off in Jan. can’t blame them. Lamberk signing a new contract shows the lowest amount of ambition from the club you could get. They don’t want to spend 90 mins in our own half every game.

    LH- he just saves nothing. Last season was the same, 9 out of 10 shots on target seem to go past him and into the back of the net now. He’s a keeper, he’s paid to save shots on target. A new new keeper as well as wingers should be a priority in Jan. obviously wingers won’t happen cus that might mean attacking and creating

  25. Jenny Truman

    Hi Matt ,
    An excellent article and I agree Fair Play Rules are not only a double edged sword but a blunt one . This is Possibly because there are competing parties with different agendas (or should I say more influence )

    We know they can be flouted by the big boys and yet the Rules are useful to protect clubs blowing themselves up in debt .

    One thing they don’t do is make it a level playing field and actually do more to preserve the status quo – the Uniteds can spend millions more because of their income ability and the likes of Burnley will always have a concrete ceiling on their expenditure because of the inferiority of their brand, stadium etc. This is the aspect I don’t like because it takes away hope for the smaller clubs and we are going to see the same paupers at the bottom scrapping it out at the bottom of the table year in year out .

    I think the “Fair” in the Rules is highly misleading as it suggests they are bringing fairness to football competition , when they don’t .
    Like expensive cream rising to the top , you can bet your bottom dollar that the richer clubs will be making up the top six by the end of the season. How is this fair ?

    Your point about the impact of FFP rules in future investors /owners is a great one and one which I hadn’t really considered before . For the odd Sheik who has money to burn , buying a Prem League Club is no longer such an attractive option. As you say , it isn’t so easy for the smaller clubs to buy success anymore. As Man City have flouted the restrictions by their lawyers coming up with avoidance schemes like naming rights , I just can’t see clubs like Burnley getting away with the same given the value of their brand . There lies the unfairness and the flaw. So they work in the sense that smaller clubs are more protected financially but they should be called “Sustainability Rules” IMO as Fair Play they aren’t !
    The only way I can see of making it a Fair Competition is by bringing in a wage cap. We know that will never happen as the income generated by Sky and the Premier League relies on us getting the Costas and de Maria’s playing in it.

    So where do AV stand . In income terms I guess we are in the middle if ran properly . (Which we haven’t been ) We have the potential to do well as we are a relatively big club if properly ran .

    Its going to be Interesting if Southampton can sustain their success of being a feeder club for the big clubs and still compete in the top half . Is this the way forward for the lesser clubs I wonder ?

  29. John Lerwill

    Mark,

    I was the one with a ring in his nose! 🙂

    At long last, the historians are putting together what they know about olde Brummie and demonstrating that knowledge at the city’s museum. But there’s so little standing evidence of the city’s history thanks to the view taken that ‘new is better’ when re-developments took place – and instead of evaluating what to keep they got rid of it all.

    I very often meet visitors at Digbeth Bus Station and tell them about where Brum started … just around the corner from the Bus Station. But there’s not even a blue plaque there to tell anyone that’s where it all began, and it’s not a wonderful looking spot these days. It was once though.

  31. Jenny Truman

    John – thank you so much for posting that link – I viewed it on my phone – absolutely charming with the sound effects . I enjoyed it so much I will have another look tomorrow on my PC . I was surprised the houses were do advanced in design for the 1300s . If it is at Bham Museum at the moment I must take the girls . I also found the clips underneath this one about the air raids in Brum fascinating too. I hadn’t realised Brum was never actually named is despatches. I agree – so many beautiful buildings have been taken down .

  32. John Lerwill

    Mark,

    Originally yes, under Saxon rule. The name ‘Birmingham’ comes from some Saxon guy (perhaps a chief) named Boerma or something like that. You remember he played for Villa a few years ago?!! 😉

    But by time of 1300 (which is the period covered by the video) it was Norman times.

    Jenny,

    It’s good stuff to look at isn’t it… particularly at the museum itself I guess.

  33. Mark King

    John, I don’t suppose it really expanded until industrial times did it? I read a lot of historical novels etc and have a particular interest in the Neville’s of Warwick Castle as my grandmother was a Neville. Birmingham doesn’t get a mention anywhere. The Larger settlements at the time appear to be built around the roman Roman towns and road system which is hardly surprising. Was there ever a Castle of the size of Kenilworth or Warwick in Brum

  34. John Lerwill

    Nah, Warwick was bigger than Brum until late 18th c. It’s really the industrial revolution that made a big difference to B’ham and both my paternal and maternal lines were attracted here from the lovely south-west because of the work opportunities at a time when Brum was growing at a great rate (1840s, 1850s).

    There was an interesting difference between Manchester’s rise and Birmingham’s. Manchester was controlled by big magnates while Brum became successful through many enterprising small businesses and self-employment. There was great scope in Brum in the 19th c. whereas Manchester was more a centre of slavery. Money still rules in Manchester!!

  35. Frem

    The only bit I’m looking forward to tomorrow is the beast coming of the bench and Holte going nuts when he does. If he scores the winner as well……

    He’s the only player you would pay to watch as a Villa fan, Jack Grealish as well actually but we all know where Lamberk will put him. Can’t have a talented young exciting player on the pitch can we now. Get a left back and striker on the wings. City full backs won’t have an easier game in there life’s then playing against Wiemann and kr, I could defend against those two. Zoggy and Grealish though, they would give them something to think about but we have the most anti football manager you will ever see, ever. Park that bus Lamberk, park that bus. He’s the type of guy who is happy with a 3-0 defeat, then another a week later. Thought we were comfortable. Twat

    It’s funny, when I saw some random European team give Madrid a right good game, the attacked and everything. Can you imagine if we played Madrid, we wouldn’t even consider the thought of getting out our own half. We hardly did against Newcastle.

    I hate Lamberk even more since he got that new contract. Still can’t believe he got it.

    Ooooooooohhhhh Christain Benteke !!!

  36. John Lerwill

    Mark,

    I forgot to add that there I think was a some form of castle but it was not very elaborate. The ‘de Bermingham’ family built a manor house and moat I think on the old castle site, and the moat is now remembered through Moat Lane. The manor house and moat (like anything else historical in Brum) went with re-development around 200+ years ago.

    About Nevilles… I don’t have a family connection, but theNeville’s appear to have owned the manor of Chittlehampton in Devon in the early 15th c. and that manor was where my family resided at a place called ‘Lerwell Farm’ and other nearby properties. It still existed as a farm 15 years ago.

    But because of those bloomin’ Wars of the Roses, my family lost their lands and migrated to the north Devon coast.

  37. Mark King

    John ditto mate, the Warwicks were the richest family in England bar none and very powerful , my elder brother by one way or another is the nearest descendent to Richard Warwick and would be earl of Warwick but obviously if they hadn’t been ousted things would be different and I might not exist as me

  41. Frem

    Ahead of the game, the England midfielder told City’s official website: “I loved every minute of my time with Villa. The fans were great to me and we were unfortunate not to win a trophy and get into the Champions League. I can’t thank them enough for what they did for me.”

    James Milner- come back Milner

    Had the picture when he scored his last goal against West ham. You know who we had in our midfield then ? Milner, Stan in CM, young number 10, Albri and Downing on the wings. That’s what a line up should have. Pace, creativity, excitement, not this boring anti football line ups we play now. No creativity what so ever, no plan to let players express them selfs. Everyone behind the ball and slow, poor footballers in creative areas. It’s wrong

  44. John Lerwill

    That last link gives a good insight to Fox. I’m not sure that the club is just here for the owner’s joy, though!

    The A-Z of Villa that’s in the article is wrong in several places, perpetuating various myths that have grown up over the years.

  45. John Lerwill

    Frem: … a line up should have. Pace, creativity, excitement, not this boring anti football line ups we play now. No creativity what so ever, no plan to let players express them selfs. Everyone behind the ball and slow, poor footballers in creative areas. It’s wrong

    Can’t help but agree with you, but you must accept that there are various ways of skinning a rabbit.

    The base that’s evolving now may in time get us to where you want us to be. I know it’s utterly frustrating, but – hey – that’s life sometimes. 😉

  47. Frem

    John- there might be various ways, but Lamberk only knows one.

    I see Fox is saying we should be aiming for European football and winning trophies. Ambition, seems a man with a plan. We are already out the cup though thanks to our master tactician and have no chance of getting 6th with him as manager. Doesn’t even play creative players FF’s

    Sounds like Randy is staying. It gets worse and worse. Two utter twats leading this club

  49. Trinity

    John

    Thanks for the link about Medieval Birmingham. I enjoy those kind of things. A trip to the museum is always on the cards whenever I visit Brum. There’s some good exhibitions. I also really enjoyed a half day visit to Warwick castle, great place for the kids.

    Frem

    Lambert will be at Villa for years to come unless there’s a better opportunity for him elsewhere and the only way that will happen is if he does well at Villa.

    Hope you enjoy the game, hopefully we don’t get a hiding. I’m going for a draw. Me thinks we can do that.

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