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I made a comment in my last post that we were mathematically safe. However, due to wins below us, it seems that we are actually still able to go down, admittedly only on goal difference. At present, we can be caught by two teams, Blackpool & Wigan, who are currently in the bottom three. We can only be caught if we lose both games, they win both games, and score 10 or 12 goals more/concede 10 or 12 goals less than us. I don’t bother mentioning the other teams between us and the drop zone, as only two teams can force us into the bottom three – the other two can only overtake us, not put us down. Blues, Wolves, and Blackburn can still go down, but they can’t put us down.
Our positives in this is a) Wigan have to play West Ham so if they draw, we are safe and b) Blackpool have Man United away on the last game of the season. Some cynics might argue that should Manchester United secure a point or more at Blackburn to win the title, that they will have nothing to play for come the last game of the season. One could also point out that such an episode occurred where West Ham won away against a weakened United to stay up, sending Sheffield United down. After all, how could we forget it given Neil Warnock’s incessant talking about the Mascherano/Tevez issue for so long afterwards.
In reality, the likelihood is that teams below us will play badly enough to keep us up, although one could argue that it is not within the realms of possibility for us to be hammered by both Arsenal and Liverpool. It ashames me that I have to even say such a thing. I thought relying on other teams’ performances was the bastion of the Blues supporter, not over us Villa fans.
Looking to the future
On a different note, and whether one wants to look at this positively or negatively, it is highly probable that the close season will result in a change of manager at the end of the season. Whilst it is possible that Gerard Houllier’s recent heart scare is nothing more than a blip on his health record, to keep him in charge in light of both this, and the terrible team performance this year, would be grossly negligent. This in itself will mean another period of transition in terms of tactical and personnel changes, although I’ll stop short of vaunting it as a transitional season.
Why? If a manager needs a whole year to turn the ship around, then they shouldn’t even be considered for the possibility of the job. After all, look at some of the immediate impacts made by both Roy Hodgson at Albion, and Kenny Dalglish at Liverpool. Neither man needed a full year, a pre-season, or whatever excuse people use to defend this horrific season. If people want evidence of how Villa could be turned around, go bid for Mourinho if he gets sacked at the end of the year. You’d see then exactly how we’d go from bad to good in the space of a month or two, not a whole year. As much as it plagues me to say it, look at Tottenham. If we could find a manager with the tactical capabilities of Redknapp, we’d be top 6 again easy. I wouldn’t want Harry himself in though as we’ve already seen what a financially indulgent manager can do to a club of our size.
Before this gets into a Houllier vs MON debate, I’ll state categorically that both men have their part to play in our plight, but neither of them are wholly responsible. In short, Gerard arrogantly tried to change things too quickly and has had illustrated horrific man management ability, and Martin O’Neill squandered money and left the club at a terrible choice of moment. I’ll say as well what I have said before – Martin left for his own reasons, he wasn’t secretly pushed by the board. I can tell you that for a fact.
All I know is whoever comes in, whether experienced or up and coming, I want to see positive steps made by the board to allay some of the fears fans have. I want to see the team play for the badge. I don’t care what formation they play so long as they play with pride, and put their heart and soul into performances. After seeing how a team can play with no conviction or interest this year, I want that instilled into the dressing room. For the many foibles of Martin O’Neill, he certainly knew how to get people working hard, albeit in an often viewed as an unfashionable and direct style of football.
Possibliity, not negativity
I don’t want this post to have a negative outlook, merely to offer some possibilities of reality. Nobody for instance thought we would get hammered by a newly promoted Newcastle at St James Park. Nobody expected us to fall so far from grace so quickly given the retention of the vast majority of a team that finished 6th last year. Nobody expected to have Gary McAllister, as the fourth manager of Aston Villa in the matter of 10 months, in charge of the team. Therefore, whilst unlikely, there is still a slim chance Villa can go down.
Speaking personally, I am concerned that we are in such a predicament with Gary McAllister in charge. His chequered managerial past record is something that doesn’t fill me with confidence, rather more a sense of dread. However I am hoping that a few things go our way, and we can close the door on what has been, by all account, a truly awful season.
Consider for a second too what a terrible sense of irony there would be too if it was Liverpool, a team that Houllier praised to our annoyance, who ended our 23 year top flight stay. As I’ve mentioned previously, Gerard Houllier can at least be grateful that he isn’t in the dugout for that eventuality.
In short, it ain’t over till it’s over. I just hope it is over as soon as possible.
The Author
