I could not be more excited for the match this weekend at Arsenal. While the draw could have undoubtedly been more kind to Aston Villa, this is a winnable game for the club.
A few weeks ago in the league, Villa turned in one of their best performances of the season, being hard done in a 2-1 loss to Arsenal at Villa Park. In that game the team finally played the way Alex McLeish says he wants the team to play. Villa kept the ball on the ground, maintained possession, and controlled the game for long stretches.
An optimist could say that this will give the team confidence heading to the Emirates. All too often this season the team has appeared to lack confidence and has played with a seeming sense of fear. Conversely, a pessimist could say that given how tight the league game was during the holiday period that Arsenal will have their tails up for this tie.
Arsenal are currently in a dog fight for a return to the Champions League. Currently they sit five points adrift of fourth-placed Chelsea, and 10 points of their North London rivals Tottenham at the moment. A Champions League last 16 tie with AC Milan also beckons. It is entirely possible that Arsene Wenger will not make the F.A. Cup a priority. If Arsenal decide to rest Robin Van Persie, Villa should be able to handle whoever takes his place.
A draw and a replay would also be an excellent result. The club would fancy their chances at Villa Park. The replay would likely be played at midweek, giving Arsenal more fixture congestion and incentive to field a weakened team. If the league game, and Villa’s exit at the hands of Manchester City last year, showed anything it’s that the club can’t go out and play for a draw. Win, lose, or draw Villa need to have a go.
That was what made the NextGen game against Marseille so compelling. The young Lions had a go from the opening whistle and redoubled their efforts after falling a goal behind, which set the stage for a dramatic equalizer by Gary Gardener. Listening to the match while pushing paper in the late afternoon in Massachusetts, this match was enthralling even with the harsh result.
That is the beauty of cup football—that clubs are more apt to go all out for victory. All too often in the league teams are content to settle for a draw and “get something” from a particular fixture. Given Villa’s current situation there haven’t been many league games that have felt like they have meant a whole lot. All that there really has been to look for is the development of the young players and the players that were frozen out under Gerard Houllier to see if there is a foundation for a team that could push up the table.
If the club can manage to get out of this difficult 4th Round tie against Arsenal the path to Wembley does open up a little bit. Holders Manchester City are already out, and either Manchester United or Liverpool will be exiting as well. The only other clubs that would be clear favorites over Villa in a one-off would be the winner of the Manchester United/Liverpool tie, and Chelsea and Tottenham, provided they get by QPR and Watford, respectively. Now Villa were knocked out of the Carling Cup by Bolton at home, but in this scenario, if they were to avoid one of those three clubs, Villa would be at worst even money to progress against any other club in the hat.
Getting past Arsenal is of course a big “if.” The club realize a deep cup run is the only way they can bring excitement back to Villa Park this season, hence the free coaches to and from the match. A win could make Villa’s season. A loss wouldn’t necessarily break their season, but it would put a wet blanket on it barring a torrid run in the league that pushes the club into seventh and European Qualification.
Projected XI: Given, Warnock, Collins, Dunne, Hutton, Agbonlahor, Petrov, Clark, Albrighton, Keane, Bent
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