Not even Villa’s first loss of the preseason has substantially dampened the positive feel at Villa Park. The only way the mood could be better would be if Alan Hutton rode out of town on the back of a unicorn, while a new fullback and striker slid down from the heavens on a rainbow.
Coming into last season there was an air of uncertainty surrounding the club. I remember writing that anything from 7th to 15th was possible. As we all know every attacking player had a poor season, stiffiled by poor tactics. The team couldn’t score from or defend set pieces. It was a complete disaster and embarrassment, there’s no need to go into greater detail. Suffice to say it was worse than my worst-case scenario.
This year I feel far more certain as to how good the team is, how they’ll play, and where they will finish. Without sitting down and breaking down every team in the league my gut tells me that 8th-10th would be a reasonable first season for Lambert’s Lions.
Replacing the fullbacks alone will solve any number of problems that plagued the team last year. The team should be stronger in defense just by virtue of keeping possession and not being under siege for the entire game. The team should also score more goals just by virtue of not being camped out in their own end of the pitch.
The attacking players, who were varying degrees of awful and uninterested, figure to be better suited to playing under Lambert. In preseason we have seen the team skillfully keep possession. Instead of aimless long balls and hopeful crosses to nobody, they have shown an ability to move the ball laterally and restart the attack.
What has been lacking is goals and clear cut chances. The hope is that as time goes on, the players become more comfortable playing this system, and new players settle into Premier League football, and that the team begins to create more scoring opportunities. Last year the team scored a meager 37 goals. It’s hard to see the team scoring more than 45 goals.
That total figures to be around league average, but unless the defense is among the best in the league it won’t push the club beyond mid-table. Mid-table would be a good start that the club can build on going forward. Combine that with good runs in the cups few would complain after last season.
If the club is going to “Pull a Newcastle,” they’ll need a total closer to the 57 the Magpies scored last season. If I’m going to be the delusional optimist for a second, for Villa to score that many league goals it might have to break down like this.
Bent 14
Agbonlahor 8
Holman 6
Weimann 5
Ireland 4
N’Zogbia 4
Delfonueso 3
Albrighton 3
Clark 3
Vlaar 2
Lichaj 2
Lowton 2
Delph 1
Bannan 1
El Ahmadi 1
TOTAL 59 Goals
I could see some of the players hitting those optimistic projections, but not all of them.
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