As usual, I’m a bit behind the curve in getting out previews and the like. The upside is that the readers generally take care of these things no matter how fast I or Mr. Lerwill might be. And readers of this blog are as smart a bunch as anyone getting paid to talk about football, so it’s been well covered.

I’ll get straight to it: The season of truth kicks off now.

And when I say say “Season of Truth” I mean it. It’s not click-bait hype. Given the age of Villa’s starting XI, the FFP concerns, and diminishing parachute payments, I really do think Villa really have to get back up this year. No one cares what Paul Lambert thinks, but when he says that if Villa don’t get promoted this season then who knows when? He’s not far wrong.

I don’t mean to be negative, hype things up, or put pressure on the team. (Because they’re all listening to me, aren’t they?) I don’t mean to dismiss Dr. Xia’s ambition. It’s just math. And money. We’ve got a lot invested in the sorts of contracts Dr. Tony has bemoaned. If Villa don’t get up, don’t expect the high-earning PL and Championship veterans we’ve signed to be moving on for a profit. Or at all. We’ll be another year older and deeper in debt.

We’ve seen the stats on points targets (1.8 per game). Goals needed (somewhere in the neighborhood of 80). What does it mean? Newcastle won the Championship last year by scoring 85, conceding 40, and finishing on 94 points. Brighton, thanks to us, finished on 93. Both conceded just 40 goals.

Villa? 32 points behind at 62. 47 for, 48 against, despite our purported defensive prowess. Well off the pace is perhaps an understatement for the ages.

Now, scoring isn’t everything. Fulham and Norwich both netted 85 times as well, but finished in 6th and 8th, respectively. Newcastle had a goal differential of +45, Reading, in 3rd, just +4, and Huddersfield, in 5th, -2. So, it’s all well and good to talk about a goal or goals-against target. As everyone knows, points are the only thing that counts. You simply have to win games. 4-3. 4-0. 2-1. 1-0. Score more, concede less. Simple.

And, as everyone also knows, Villa right now look to be aiming to grind out more 1-0s than simply outscoring teams for fun.

Today, we host Hull City. It’s already virtually a must-win game. Newcastle lost just 10 times last year, and Brighton only 9. The Championship may be a grind, but it’s also a footrace. Villa’s 16 wins, 16 losses and 14 draws of a year ago isn’t nearly good enough.

Gabby or Hogan, Hourihane or Lansbury, 4-4-1-1, 4-4-2…I don’t care. It’s all about winning at least 22 games and drawing no more than 14 to make the playoff spots. Or winning somewhere in the neighborhood of 26 to 28 games to gain automatic promotion. On last year’s pace, out of Villa’s 30 draws and losses, 12 need to be turned into wins for an automatic spot. Six if we’re looking to make the playoffs. The latter scenario doesn’t sound so bad.

But lose today, and Villa have 45 games to go, and can realistically look at losing only nine to 15 times the rest of the year to even make the playoffs based on last season’s form. This year could vary, obviously. But don’t count on the remit changing too dramatically.

On the plus side, lose today and Villa have 45 games to win 29. Or 28. Or maybe something like 25. In short, fine margins. Much better to finish the day alphabetically on top of the league table.

That’s it, really. Other than the fact that today marks the third generation of my family watching Villa at home. That’s nothing compared to almost all your legacies, but it goes back more than 40 years, so it’s something. To me, anyway. Cheers, Eb. Here’s to a great day out with some of the finest people in the world.

So Come On You Villa Boys. Get it right. Find a way to win. Show us we’re in it.

VTID

Over to you.

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John Clark
John is co-owner of AVL, and has followed the Villa since the '70s. A journalist by trade, he is, by most accounts, a very nice person. You can follow me on Twitter @JClarkKohoutek. It's an astonishing experience. Or a complete waste of time.

Comments 117

  1. Trinity

    How would you be Mr. Clark?
    Thanks for providing the mathmatical side of what Villa need to get automatic promotion or to the play offs.
    It is the “season of truth.” SB has no excuses for Villa underperformances. Dr. X has generally supported him money wise, put his cash where his mouth is. I hear what you say about the debt if we don’t get to the PL 2017-18.
    Hope your son enjoys his trip to VP.
    May Villa score lots and let none in.
    Hope everyone enjoys the football this year.
    Cheers!
    UTV

  2. John Lerwill

    JC,

    Yes, that’s how it be all right.

    But last night I saw the video interview with Keith Wyness, and I am really impressed by what he said and how they’ve striven to turn things around at VP.

    In short, if the attitude of the players and management is right, the result also should be. So it’s the keenness and sense of pride that I’ll be looking for today. The wins will follow if that – and ability – is there.

  3. Heroes-and-Villans

    Nice one john. Without a doubt home form especially has to be spot on. I want us to be unbeaten at vp.

    Robbo

    Agree with your last post.
    Said something the other day about people forget just how bad the club was destroyed. Have only seen leeds, qpr, pompey and maybe sheff wed when the dropped into div 2 run as bad.
    There is no quick fix in re building top to toe.

  4. Heroes-and-Villans

    But its game day and the excitement that footy is back is great. Love seeing the new kit, if anything has changed around the ground.

    As long as we compete, play with pride and dont give up and do our best ill be happy.

    Apparently we have wrap around sponsor boards that go all around like a bowl effect.

  5. John Lerwill

    Mark: “you may not have noticed but you are the only one that gets upset about gabby not being taken seriously and keep challenging opinions ?”

    Well me, r0bb0 and several others that do not like to post any more.

    My point is simply this: Gabby is a Villan and i.m.o. should be given as much encouragement as any other player, particularly as he’s been included in Bruce’s plans. If we can’t be generous and be true supporters of our players then what are we?

  6. Heroes-and-Villans

    John

    It was a good interview wasnt it.

    What keith said about playing the villa way and taken years to implement it throughout he age groups and then talking about the firstvteam now and style of footy was interesting….and again building 3 teams….you know reading between the lines a bit id put money on us sacking bruce if we went up and built our 2nd team….think like my mates old man said for where we are now bruce is the sensible man. How ever much you dont like his style of footy…. He is a nice guy, staff at the club and around vp will like him. He has massive contacts in the game and will work hard.

    Something to be said for that as the clubs about the people…its was poison and toxic under randy.

  7. Heroes-and-Villans

    my take on gabby. Id sell him or try to sell him if i was manager. The reason…i think he is an awful finisher and does not score enough goals.

    But…can he offer us something this season and have a positive effect on the team….i think he can. Is he the devil in disguise…no. The troubles gabby has had is when managers havent handled him properly….man management. O neil got him on side and told him he was a world beater. Bruce the same, included him from the start. Gardei, houllier binned him from the stArt and he didnt respond. Players aint the smartest, they need love and telling what to do. If gabby can put a shift in like he did against watford he could be a good foil for hogan. Create some space for him.

  8. John Lerwill

    Andrew, it was so bad under Randy that I blanche when I think that I was there watching it beginning to happen 8 years ago and yet everyone else thought all was hunky-dory at that time. You can’t see the full effect of the volcanic eruption until it spews its larva.

    I feel happy that we have probably the best people in place now for the position we are in, but you may well be right, that once we’re in the PL then there’ll be some changes.

  9. Mark King

    JL- well if I cannot say I would prefer Hogan to start what sort of blog is this? goes both ways mate

    Spot on JC this may be Villas most important yet lets hope we have got it right

    Up the Villa

  10. John Lerwill

    Mark: “well if I cannot say I would prefer Hogan to start what sort of blog is this? goes both ways mate”

    Mate, everyone was in tunnel vision and not talking of Gabby, so it needed someone to balance things up a bit, didn’t it?

  12. Mark King

    Robbo- I agree with most of what you say on SB except his whole approach to the rebuild looks like leaving us with a headache if we go up or not . we are in this position because of decisions made at the buying stage. Seems to me Dr Xia looked at other clubs bought villa then started thinking how to conquer the world. After the previous board we could of done with a ready made one with a solid plan to resurrect the club not necessarily conquering the football world just yet. Whether we go up or not I feel that it’s two seasons of waste in the transfer market that should of seen us on solid foundations.

    As for gabby sure he has something to offer but he is playing a position that prevents a player with more to offer playing. That’s part down to Bruce’s tactics and part down to kodjia being injured. If kodjia was fit they will both be on the bench.

  13. Mark King

    One thing I would like to say is the club listened to the fans on social media of that I have no doubt. It’s the only way I can see statements about building the team around jack and promoting 5-6 youth players coming about? when what I see is 20 year olds from spurs and Liverpool being loaned in who are likely to keep our lot out and stunt development at a stage where we will definitely be needing them if we go up or not. And most of our play is out to the wings where jack isn’t or at least wasn’t 🙂

    For the record if we signed Stalin and he scored goals I would cheer him on in a game and discuss his crimes against his fellow men afterwards

  14. Heroes-and-Villans

    Tricky re youth and loans. Last summer my owls friend said the loan market is key in the championship.

    You only have to look at huddy last season or watford fe years ago to see how handy and how much it works.

    No doubt odomha or kent if we got him are better than our young ones.

  16. Mark King

    Andrew- the only reason we know they are good? Their clubs play them, we won’t know unless we play ours. Loans are a cheap way of upping your quality

  17. John Lerwill

    You know, what you armchair experts will say if we end up gaining promotion with ease I don’t know! 😀

    Mark: “As for gabby sure he has something to offer but he is playing a position that prevents a player with more to offer playing.”

    Who is he (or would be?) preventing someone “more to offer”?

    We don’t know what the team will be yet! And the only other player who would fit your description right now is Hogan, who is just an out-and-out striker who depends on a particular kind of service, and therefore isn’t someone with “more to offer” – he’s just different. Like Gabby, he hasn’t shown too much scoring ability this year.

    Let’s see Mark before we get down these routes of discussing things that are purely surmise right now!

  20. Mark King

    JL- I’m sorry but Hogans display of finishing was measured when he has had the chances and how many times did he set RMC up? Gabby one header against a non league side? and another against Hertha that would of almost certainly been a foul in a real match, Quality of service matters, Has Gabby looked as effective with Elmo? do his runs invite the cross?

    There is a whole lot of surmising going on in both camps and always will be as this is a blog and without posts and opposing views would be dead, a fair few might find it negative and not post but I can assure you being flagged up as the bullys in the playground if your not deemed positive or balanced enough is just as off putting to at least half the blog.

  22. Mark King

    Haggis and other uk/eire fans

    “If you are going to sign up for Nord ( VPN American service) I suggest you got through the process of ordering and then at the last minute click the back button on your browser before paying. They often have a pop up window asking you if you are sure and offering a further discount

    My worry was that AVTV would check the country of issue of my credit card and refuse me on that basis (thats what Apple do). But Successfully paid with an Irish cc the other day. You will need a local address for the country you are subscribing from. Easiest way to get a standard address is to Google Houses for sale in the US and you will get full address and zip code”

    You ent seen me Roight 😉

  23. Mark King

    JL- I see quite a few non arm chair experts are saying with our squad top 2 is the minimum the Doc should expect?

    Watched a bit of Derby and Sunderland game it was end to end stuff and could of been 4-4 ended 1-1. So no park the bus from Rowett and Grayson. Sunderland looked ok as did Derby but early days.

    some of the big hitters go head to head today too.

  24. Heroes-and-Villans

    Intersting bit matey on sky saying about how after the blues game he wanted us to play out the back and through the middle more. Terry will do it all day long simple ball in the middle or wing.

    Remember seeing bruce go mad loads last season saying to baker normaly calm down and play it. Dont just launch it….

  27. John Clark

    JL,

    You’ll know as well as anyone how badly the club had deteriorated. I like what I hear and see, but it makes me feel better that you believe the club is in good hands.

  28. John Clark

    Andrew,

    I do remember Bruce looking very vexed a lot of the time. I really do hope Terry is still up to it week-in week-out like he says, because all that hoofing did us no favors, and you’re right, he is composed (as you’d expect) and making the right decisions.

  30. James Gill

    andrew
    it used to be at least once in a match bruce team passed forward,the centre to kick off,changed rule last season so now bruce team first pass will be backwards

  32. Mark King

    JC- I am so bored of Gabby V Hogan, actually nearly makes up the name of that female sports presenter Gabby logan and is about as interesting 🙂

    Can’t get away from it , went to the gym and got chatting to a chap who turned out to be a Villa fan, he said he wasn’t going today as he went a lot last season and they were all draws and boring, he’s going to wait and see what happens. Then he started telling me how Hogan should be playing, oh what fun we had………..zzzzzzzzzz

  37. Trinity

    JC
    Yep, hope it’s a successful season. The domestic rugby season here just finished 10 minutes ago, so bring on the football.
    The Crusaders defeated The Lions in the final.

  48. John Clark

    Very solid half…and of course Gabby scored. Keep making me wrong and I’ll be happy.

    And I really have to give him credit. He was making a lot happen, all over the place, good spot for him to be playing.

  49. Mark King

    Well so far so good, should be out of sight and hope it doesn’t come back to bite us. Shocked how poor hull are and how little pressure we are under, don’t expect the second half to be like that the sooner we get a second the better. Lansbury looks different player when allowed to attack, Hutton playing well , they are all playing well bar Bacuna.

  51. John Clark

    Yep, Bacuna’s been the weak link so far. And agreed, Lansbury looks better up front. It’s a good formation and team selection overall.

    Likewise hoping we can keep it up and don’t expect the second half to be as comfortable by any means. Really do want that second.

  60. James Gill

    andrew
    yes i am fuming at same shite as last season ,trying to defend a goal lead,hutton out of position all the time gabby hasnt been seen since his goal,striker off and midfieler on,bacuna gets another game to show everyone he is a complete waste of space,green left on the bench yes bruce gives youth a chance

  64. John Lerwill

    JC: “Bacuna’s been the weak link so far. And agreed, Lansbury looks better up front. It’s a good formation and team selection overall.”

    Yes, totally agreed with all that, and Bacuna just doesn’t offer enough, sorry to say. He is not bad but one of the old crowd who has to go, surely.

    Lansbury I did like for endeavour and passing and getting up top pretty often. Whelan was another who I thought would make a big difference today, but his passing didn’t stand out a lot.

    Green should probably have come on 10 minutes earlier – before they scored – and what a chance he did miss. And then Onomah’s chance, although they say he was offside; but if he was there was centimetres in it.

    Sad that we didn’t take better advantage of the first half and then failed to get started s-h until the subs came on.

    But I am heartened the way they played the first 20-30 minutes. If they can’t keep it up, though, they have to sub a couple earlier than what they’re doing.

  65. r0bb0

    Can’t help coming away feeling deflated as it was a game we could and should have won.
    The first half was good and it was surprising we were only one up.
    The start of the second half . . . . what happened? I hope John Terry learns quickly that this team needs a rocket up its arse John st before they come out for the second half.
    We’ve seen this before and the first 20 mins of the sseason cons half were painful. We were so lethargic!
    We then woke up again, particularly after the substitutions and I really expected us to score again.
    Hogan so unlucky not to score, gabby full of energy and (particularly in the first half) causing them problems up front and even chasing back and tackling
    Good to see Lansbury in that advanced role where he can make more of a difference.
    Elmohamady looked. Imposed and win just about every high ball he went for as a bonus.
    Hutton gave his usual solid performance in defence and gave us a good outlet. . . wish he had a decent cross in him
    The one slight disappointment was Whelan. His lack of speed wasn’t the problem but he seemed tentative on the ball at times and gave the ball away too often
    Enjoyed seeing Samba up front at the end. . . . it felt like a flashback to previous days of target men like Carew or Benteke or Dublin, Heskey, Crouch. . . . Ahhh those were the days

  67. James Gill

    john l
    would you not think the fact we looked good in 1st 20 mins was the fact hull had 3 debutants in defence and couple more up the field,once they got themselves sorted different game,along with bruce is still our manager

  68. Archie

    Evening each, Archie at the controls, take a night off.
    I thought we mullered them first half but felt we were never going to sustain it. And we never came out second half and you could see they were going to score, and they did, no surprise.
    I thought Lansbury and Hogan went missing during that period and I have to question whether there good enough to play for our club, a point for discussion, tell me if I’m missing something.
    But a point is a point, but we look to have the same old problems…sigh…
    On positive note, just had Linquine with Arabatia sauce and a bottle of Chianti….Oh, life is good.
    Love Southern Italian cuisine and that lovely red wine they produce.
    Almost as good as Ansells Mild…..We’re going up …..trust me, honest Arch from Harborne.

  69. Heroes-and-Villans

    Well that was bad. I didnt even enjoy the first half really.

    And samba on with 5 to go on the first game of season is desperate and embarassing.

    Whats hourihan done wrong? Ofomah and green must start.

    Pace.

  70. Trinity

    The result is deflating given the amount of possession that was needlessly given away. What’s wrong with Bacuna’s ability to control a football?
    Thought Hutton and Gabby played pretty well.
    The team still needs to develop cohesion.

  71. B6toBrasil

    Baffled,but not suprised.SB said words to the affect of…I left out Amavi to give us more attacking options?………?…..?..???????.
    Really?For the last 5 he takes a striker off to replace him with a CB who has not played much for 20 months.What an insult for Hogan.
    Bacuna?Dreadful,yet he was selected in front of Hourihane?
    Look at Hogan’s goals for Brentford.Little short passes down the channels 1 touch and bang.We can not provide that for him,we are obsessed with getting to rhe byline and pulling the ball back for a traditional CF which we don’t have.
    Hogan wil be ineffective with the way SB sets the team up.Look at Brentford,Fulham,technical sides who pass..QUICKLY…… short and on the deck.SB is incapable of supplying Hogan,or at least playing to his strengths.His(Hogan) movement is excellent,angled runs which create space for the pass,waiting for the killer pass.Gabby just runs in straight lines and gets praised for “putting himself about”.Well bravo GA,that doesn’tmake you a good player,and he is the worst I have seen at VP at one on ones with the GK.
    Whelan was creamed second half,doing his job AND Bacunas.
    Same old issues,go one up,defend concede,give the opposition confidence and panic.Bruce will be gone by Nov if he is not careful.No,I am not over reacting to one result,it’s just that we have a manager who uses subs badly,and can’t get the best out of what he has,which for me is the essence of coaching,whether at u9 level,pub level,or pro level.I am judging him by last season too not today.SB and the club’s concern,seems to be to throw $$$$$ at out problems or deficiencies rather than attempt to solve them by coaching,scouting and,as already stated,getting the best out of what we have.
    If Bacuna can get in the side then we have problems.Rant over going to grap an Itaipava or 3.
    No,Iam not anti SB,I want him to suceed,and hope I am wrong,but his limitations were exposed once more today IMO.

    JC hope your lad had a good day.

  72. Mark King

    Brasil- lovely to hear your view as its getting very lonely in common sense football land all the best mate.

    First half Hull had bigger gaps than we did, leading up to the second they closed wheelan down and created chances and I knew our time was up. I don’t know about park the bus but we could put a car park between the backs, mids and forwards, if I was Hogan I’d take a pay cut before my careers ruined.

  73. r0bb0

    B6. Good to see your different opinion on the game.. The crosses from the goal line are pretty much wasted without a Carew or Benteke in the middle and I must admit, I was hoping that the Crouch rumours were true, to give us that option in attack. It’s over-stating it though to infer that was our only, or even our main form of attack. Hogan had plenty of chances today and on another day might have had a hat trick. You’re right that none of those chances came from a byline cross though.
    I wondered if someone would comment on Gabby’s failure to score with only the keeper to beat and bet myself that if they did there’d be no mention of Hogan’s failure to do the same.
    I don’t agree with your view of bringing Samba on at all. With time running out it seemed a sensible move, to find a way of getting the ball into the danger area quickly in order to give us as many attacking opportunities as possible as the clock ran down. I wouldn’t want to see us using the long ball and ‘big man knock downs’ as our main tactic throughout the game, but you could feel the crowd lift at the time. It gave Hull a new challenge to deal with and if I’d been a Hull supporter, I know it would have worried me.
    General consensus seems to be a big thumbs up for Hogan though and if Paul McGrath says it then it MUST be true. They replayed Hogan’s rueful smile on the big screen after another one of his efforts on goal just failed to go in . . . . Looking forward to seeing his reaction when he scores in front of the Holte End.

  74. r0bb0

    One thing I felt we did miss today was someone shooting from just outside the area. This is one area where we missed Jack today.
    It’s such a shame that Cleverley’s elbow robbed us of the chance to see how Bruce would have ‘liked’ to see us play.
    It’s clear from having Jack’s image on the Sky posters, and the Villa posters, and the fact he’s been given the no 10 shirt that he was intended to be the link man. If it had worked, he’d have brought Hogan even more into the game and would have provided that threat from just outside the box too.

  75. r0bb0

    There were 4 penalty shouts from the crowd during the game. We’re any of them replayed on Sky, and did any of them look justified?

  76. Heroes-and-Villans

    Didnt think they were pens.

    Calmed down abit…overall against a side just out the prem not bad. Hull had about 30 mins of good spell we had the rest. But bruces subs and reaction against the oppo bad…..but if green scores the easiest tap in ever we wud be pretty content now.

    More frustrated with green when he went past someone had so much space to drive in on goal and he choose to cross first time and sailed over everyone! Awful decision.
    The open goal can just happen to players, one of those things.

  77. Heroes-and-Villans

    Biggest shock hutton….he was very very good!! Damn didnt think id say that!!!

    Gabby was ok first half.

    Hourihan is going to be sold just know it. Too creative and technical for bruce.

    Hogan too……imagine another team having hourihan and hogan in there team….assists and goals galore.

  78. John Lerwill

    Helo all,

    I can’t believe some of the comments…

    “I didnt even enjoy the first half really” (Andrew). I thoroughly enjoyed it but of course thought like everyone else that if they don’t score a second then it will be all change s-h. And it was. Their coach obviously got them to tighten up at the back and we lost our energy.

    Complaints over Gabby not scoring with his first chance … well it nearly did go through the keeper’s legs, and as he was being closed down it wasn’t a bad effort. But very soon afterwards scored. And was lively all through the second half. Patchy afterwards.

    Hogan: In that team I don’t think he will succeed. I can see us having Codger up front with Gabby as the support. But Hogan did have two chances – the first akin to Gabby’s first effort, but the second from Elmo I think Hogan should have put away. Scoring then would have put Hull on their backs.

    Subs: Came on too late and Green’s missed sitter was horrific! Having said that he should have started over Bacuna i.m.o. Green has sufficient tackling-back capability to make up that side of things.

    But the subs issue is Bruce’s Achilles Heel i.m.o. It should have been obvious that Hull were ‘on’ to us s-h, and Bruce should have brought Green on at about 55 or 60. But he should have started anyway.

    A bit disappointed with Whelan after his performance against Watford. But not bad.

    Defence terrific but for the goal. They all got pulled across.

    Headmaster’s comment: A very good start but must learn to change things when the match changes against us. But it’ll get better.

  82. John Lerwill

    Andrew,

    Yes, I agree that Whelan was good … just that vs. Watford he showed up better i.m.o.! I’m just greedy. 🙂

    BTW, I said that Gabby was lively all through second-half. Meant first-half of course.

  83. John Lerwill

    Andrew,

    Yes, Cardiff have started well, no doubt. Just shows that every game is going to be a tester.

    So long as Bruce doesn’t start Bacuna we should be OK next week … probably another draw though.

  87. James Gill

    so new season but same bruce
    we start with a deep lying back 4 with terry in charge who has been used playing with zonal marking but then again terry never had to play with hutton before .what was hutton doing standing on goalline for hull goal any hull player in there would be offside
    midfield we had
    whelan and god help us bacuna as holding 2,elmo on right gabby onleft with green left on bench
    lansby as attacking mid and hogan up front
    so then the fun of subs
    takes bacuna off and replaces with green aleft winger when he had birr and houirane 2 central midfielders on bench, so 3 changes for 1 bacuna off lansby dropping back ,gabby going up front green going left,next sub takes hogan [striker] replaces witn new boy [midfielder] we all do hokey coke now is it 4 5 1 now with gabby as focal point , then as injury time approaches a sub[ big sam harrry bassett neil warnock] would be proud off samba a centre half who hasnt played in yonks comes on as a striker taking off lansby so now it is 4 4 2 ,samba up front with gabby playing off him you couldnt make it up,why was davies not on bench

  88. Mark King

    Morning folks – plus points we actually tried to win, Hutton had his best game ever. Minuses our vaunted defence and ability with the experienced players to see out a game (that was clearly getting away from us as early as the last ten in the 1st half) was shocking, welcome to the championship lads.

    The way we play too with all that sprinting after the ball and sprinting the length of the pitch to recover, Gabby did it a lot as he was the winger and no way is he built for that job for 90mins ditto goes for Hogan who had to run around continually to try to retrieve the ball and although Lansbury was attacking to it was not as a unit and he looked Knackered at the half. Their goal comes from a headed clearance when Gabbys man loses him and get s there first and plays in the winger. Bruces explanation was we got caught pressing the ball in the wrong area?

    Once again a manager made simple changes and played between our lines with Wheelan becoming isolated, reminded me of RDM’s 2 man midfield at times, as we grew tired with all the sprinting the worse it got, why did JT not pull them together for ten or more importantly Bruce?
    Taylor got caught several times which led to the goal, might be the gap created with Gabby pushing up to attack so much then tiring who knows but as long as we persist with this playing players out of position it will cause errors and problems.

    Robbo- As for the two chances one on one there are key differences, Gabby was put clean through and as he entered the box he had a poor touch which switched the ball in stride to his left foot when the right from there would of made it a lot easier, he also did not look up or seem aware of Hogan who had lost his marker in open space with and open goal gaping tough call to make but he didn’t even see him.
    Hogans chance was created by him alone, slaloms past two players and it looks like as he shoots the defender gets the slightest of touches the ball goes under the keeper and hits his trailing leg gabbys hits the keeper in the groin area, all things considered with the position he was in after dribbling through he did well to shoot at all, end of the day neither went in but vast differences in their execution and creation.

    As for Hogan not making it at Villa, I agree he will struggle with the non existent service to him to get the 25 goals he has set himself this season. But if you watch him you will see as Brasil said his runs are brilliant and they are made to take players away as well as to be in the right place.

    Take a closer look at the Gabby Goal something none of you gabby fans out there have mentioned is when huttons cross comes in I am pretty sure that Hogan flicks it into his path after taking the defenders to the front post, He also does the same later again to Gabby who is tackled in the box.
    The answer to getting more from Hogan sits in the reserves O’hare, he is a live wire and a very clever player, right on Hogans wavelength.

    Robbo- I agree on the shooting from out side the box where was it? well I think we are so geared to those runs into the outside channels there is nobody centrally to take a pop or Play Hogan in. As for Grealish he always has favoured the left hand side so I am not sure of his worth centrally as he never seems to be there much, against Watford he played what time he had with green on the left, not saying he couldn’t adjust just that he hasn’t so far.

    On Samba, I saw him get up from the bench and commented that he was going up front, Bruce delayed the switch by ten mins a mistake imo as at that points he had used his subs to wrestle back some control but pulled are teeth.

    Greens chance? it was swung in from behind him and he had moved forward into the space, a more experienced player might of been able to time it so he was coming on to the ball not having to get power and direction from his own neck, missed one last season like it shame as would of been good for him and us.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ir4ni1F6Egs

  90. Mark King

    JG- yes JT marking the area at the front post, Chester follows a player to the front post instead of passing him on, Hutton left with two on the back post and a third running in.

    Seems to me 30 odd games two windows and a pre-season is not enough to produce the finished article.

  91. Mark King

    Aren’t we all Tony

    Dr. Tony Xia‏Verified account @Dr_TonyXia 57m
    More
    Still bothered about the game,not just result but some issues thought we’d solve though still positive&confident we can make the season.#UTV

  92. Mark King

    this vid a bit clearer for the goal and Gabbys effort which comes off the keepers outstretched leg and into his groin, tough job to try to put it in at the near post. Also Lansburys shinner, also didn’t see Hogan in space, I wonder if Hogan wore bandages like the invisible man, yellow afro wig or a goalie shirt we would see him? 😉

    https://youtu.be/gzpK4DZNOwM

  93. James Gill

    mark k
    is another 10 games for going to change anything under bruce,they have had preseason defence looked worse yesterday with terry,and why did hutton cover goal line
    bree houirane and hogan where flying in this league now what happened,seen bits of lansby before he came never really fancied him and what i have seen nothing has changed

  94. Mark King

    To me we are still looking for individual genius on the goal front, we did last season under rdm and then Bruce with kodjia, Bruce keeps moaning about missed chances but we don’t seem to create unmissable ones much. One chance Hogan had when Elmo crossed to him but it took a slight deflection and hogan had to adjust but still did the right thing by trying to hit far post as the front was covered. We have to create more of these. We seem to attack like a counter attack side even when we Are in possession .

  95. B6toBrasil

    Morning all,I long for Green to bag his 1st goal,I think it will work wonders for him.The main positives from yesterday was how much we created.It’s far too early to have a real moan,so onwards to Cardiff,another tough game,but in this division every team is capable beating each other.Fulham,for me,regardless of yesterday’s results,are e

  97. Mark King

    Brasil- Cardiff will be very tough I think Warnock vastly underrated, has more about him than Bruce IMO but his teams can be dirty, I think he may hit the top 6 this season, so many good teams and to put it in perspective Hull Lost the spine of their team, 16 players in all left and 6 in, we are still bemoaning the relegation and the problems it caused. Time to leave that behind and show up.

  99. B6toBrasil

    True John,it’s far too easy to over react to a result good or bad,it could,of course have been a lot worse.We will play a lot worse and win games I am sure.
    Mark,I would always take SB over Warnock all day long,can’t stand him as a person or manager.Justa perception as I don’t claim to know him.
    Robbo,take your point about Hogan,but my Gab remarks re one on ones is based on several seaons not just yesterday’s fixture.
    MARK,you would take Warnock over SB……?Why does that not suprise me?
    You would take a Big Issue seller over SB as you are the founder of The ABB Society.Anyone But Bruce.

    Good to see the content ofthe debate on here today,not so abrasive and confrontational,valid points well made,but with the humour too,which I have missed.It used to be such a good laugh on here,informative but fun too.Long may this continue.

  100. Mark King

    Brasil- Know what you mean about Warnock he’s an abrasive character but wherever he goes he seems to turn teams around quickly, I would like to have had him in last season I think he would given us a better chance of the playoffs and cost the club less money in players maybe. He’s not a manager to build on long term(neither is Bruce) but it looks we are going the promotion or bust route so out of the two he seems to get the best out of other managers players.

    Nothing Against Bruce don’t know him seems amiable enough I just think he’s a bit of a one trick pony. Don’t particularly like what I am seeing when to me it looks very fixable with a little change of play.

    Yes a bit of humour and not taking things so serious (its easy for things to look more abrasive than intended) makes for a happy blog 🙂

    Oh did you see the goal Fulham gave away? proper laid on the oppositions striker, a bit like hull first half.

  103. Mark King

    Worth a read as things stack up quite well for us but this shows what I was talking about playing players out of position no matter how they might turn up the odd moment.

    “Villa need more involvement down the left side
    Gabby Agbonlahor and Leandro Bacuna were invisible for most of the day, accumulating 59 touches between the two. Ahmed Elmohamady had 67 touches himself. To be most effective, Neil Taylor needs a forward willing to be more involved. Hello, André Green. Please meet the starting XI?”

    https://7500toholte.sbnation.com/2017/8/6/16102368/expected-villa-stats-analysis-aston-villa-hull-city

  104. Mark King

    I liked Hulls manager what a nice fella 🙂

    The chap who scored was a youngster Brucie bought in July 2014 but I don’t think he ever played him he’s now 20 far to young 😉

    “The moans and groans were still there, though, as Jarrod Bowen levelled for Hull City.

    This was a youngster Bruce has plucked from Hereford United and a player Leonid Slutsky insisted he had to start given his exceptional pre-season performances.

    ‘I wish I’d left him in the non-league,’ joked Bruce after the game as Bowen’s strike meant Villa had to settle for a point.”

  106. John Clark

    Mark,

    Have to say the bit about Gabby and Bacuna being invisible all day seems to me like a case of looking at stats and getting it a bit wrong. They were very involved first half, obviously. Gabby scored, had another clear break, could’ve had two. Bacuna kept missing the pass, but was involved and in the right places or he wouldn’t have been missing the passes.

    It was the second half where neither had any impact. Elmo and Hogan seem like they’ll have an understanding. But as I watched the game, Elmo was less influential overall than I thought he would’ve been regardless of how many times he touched the ball. He did put in a shift, was dogged and the like, and an overall positive. Could well have had an assist or two.

    Subs are always tricky. The team created more than enough first half. You wouldn’t necessarily make changes at halftime, and most often you won’t see a manager change much before 60 minutes unless someone’s really getting abused or having a howler.

    In retrospect, it would’ve been good to withdraw Gabby and Bacuna earlier, get Green on, etc. But I also think a manager isn’t necessarily wrong in wanting to persist for a bit if he is wanting the team to be able to see things out.

  107. James Gill

    john c
    why did you think elmo would have been better,this is his level another poor short sighted signing,
    we created more in first half until the hull manager got to grips with his first match outside of russia with players making first start for hull the defence had 3,2 loanees from his mate at chelsea
    bruce signs terry who has played in a zonal marking system for a few years and we have players who have not a clue position wise,the goal we conceded was clear of all our short comings,gabby losing ball ,hutton marking goal line elmo out of site,should not be happening after 36 games and full preseason ,players are here long enough

  108. Paul Pears

    Well, must be time for me to give up on the Villa….

    Walked into the social club of the local football club in Gretna Green, and hey ho! Aston Villa are winning 1-0 with ten minutes to go to half time….and what a surprise Hull seem to be starting to play well, and put a few passes together, and Villa seem to sigh with relief, as the half-time whistle goes.
    Get the feeling, if Villa do not come out second half with all guns blazing, and get a second goal, that Hull may grow I n confidence and score……..

    I do not really need to comment more than that, because it has all been said in earlier comments, and I am afraid that Mr no plan/ tactics Bruce is on the road to nowhere.

    He just seems to be devoid of ideas, of how to galvanise his teams into changing up a gear and going for the jugular, and the goal was a typical schoolboy error of not controlling your back line to spring the offside trap.

    The whole thing was a compete embarrassment for me, in front of family, who in the main are Bindipper supporters to watch my team fail to bring home the bacon yet again…!!!

    So glad I did not miss my niece’s silver wedding party to watch the match at VP instead…!!!

    I just hope we play the young guns against Colchester and win a game…!!

  109. John Lerwill

    Paul: “He just seems to be devoid of ideas, of how to galvanise his teams into changing up a gear and going for the jugular”

    The thing was that Villa were so much in charge during that first 30 minutes that their coach said that “it looked as though Villa had two extra players”.

    It’s down to the players, really, that they were not 2 or 3 up by the time 30 minutes had passed. That’s not Bruce’s fault.

    On the other hand -despite what JC constructively said – the signs were towards the end of the half – and certainly in the first 10 minutes of the second – Hull were getting back and were in charge second half. Bruce must have realised that one or two needed replacing early, yet didn’t do it. That’s certainly where Bruce went wrong i.m.o.

  110. Mark King

    JC- I wasn’t thinking he should make wholesale changes at that point more pull the side into a 451 for ten minutes and choke the midfield up. I didn’t see anything from Wheelan that suggests he was trying to reign in Lansbury and Bacuna to help as he was getting closed down. Hulls 2 DM’s are actually attacking players (where have we seen that?) and once they moved up the pitch it caused us problems and the ball stop coming to the forwards so much. Personally I would of steadied the ship and then put the young lad on for bacuna because he can dribble and he’s quick and he could of made use of the space vacated by hulls DM’s, followed by Green for gabby giving us forward momentum again and three supplies for Hogan.

    On the stats yes they don’t tell all as you can have one touch all game and score but it does show that they were not involved in keeping the ball much, or showing in the places a midfielder/LW normally would, the emphasis being on bombing forward with Wheelan orchestrating things. Equally it doesn’t show how much running or jockying they got through.

  112. Mark King

    Was going to mention how much pace troubles are back four, we look ok but the odd moment when Jt was exposed? another reason a someone to work with Taylor would help

  113. John Clark

    Paul,

    Yeah, we get deep like that, too many players leaving room in front of the box, and then when we knock it upfield we don’t have players to fight for the ball. And as you quite rightly point out, don’t get the back line moved forward quick enough. You’d think JT could sort that without help from Bruce.

  114. John Clark

    Mark,

    Can’t disagree with any of that…on the whole, when we drop back, we don’t make it easier on ourselves, just easier for the opposition.

  115. John Clark

    James,

    On Elmo, for me I was expecting more of a wing-back role for him. But, playing as a ‘winger’ of sorts, he does seem to know how to play to someone like Hogan. So I find him an upgrade on Hutton in terms of service. When he looped that ball into Hogan, who was pointing where he wanted it, it actually made sense. He saw the run, looked to play the right sort of ball.

    But when Adomah’s back, I wonder does Elmo drop further back, does he keep his place higher up…Lots of things we’ll still have to see. Same deal with Jedi and Whelan, Hourihane and Bjarnason.

    Not quite sure who Bruce is referring to in terms of players going that he wouldn’t want to let go of. You only see gossip about it being Kodjia, but he’d be insane to let him go unless Kodjia was really agitating for a move. I guess he’s just being diplomatic, but of the players he didn’t buy, you’d be looking at Bacuna, Elphick, Richards, I would think. Be a head-scratcher if he’s looking at the likes of Hourihane or Bjarnason, but they could actually be moved on, unlike Richards.

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