As Aston Villa manage to win against West Ham, the Villans are almost safe, although an ingrained pessimism/view of reality of the club’s recent history (delete as appropriate) ultimately defines that only mathematics will calm the collective shakes.
Such a view sits wholly at odds with a manager who is, by definition, a swaggering personality, and a man who will have equal measure of hate and love showered upon him.
That said, Villa are arguably in the position they are currently in almost wholly as a result of changes made my Tim Sherwood. As any scientist or mathematician will attest, when a single variable changes in an environment and it leads to positive change, then the single item is likely the cause. Given how dismal and dire Villa were under Paul Lambert in his latter months, and the lack of a single addition, Sherwood’s appointment is increasingly looking like a masterstroke.
In fact, if one looks at Sherwood’s win ratio since arriving at Villa Park, it is staggering. Here is a manager who is approaching a ratio of the level of Sir Alex Ferguson, and whilst to make a direct comparison would be an outrageous use of hyperbole given the short length of time involved, few can doubt this is a manager who is doing things right.
For Villa – at least the club in recent years – it is almost too good to be true. A ratio of Sherwood’s current level is synonymous with a team competing for the top six, not one languishing in desperate hope of survival.
Which, if we’re honest, leads many to believe if the club’s recent downfall was little but self-inflicted, with fans blinded by a Jedi mind trick put on by years of austere behaviour following a horrendous ill-conceived gamble on Martin O’Neill.
The truth, however, is slightly more nuanced. Whilst Lambert was certainly right to be sacked, he did oversee a period where cuts were imposed and, to his credit, he did keep the club afloat during the period, even if his final months were atrocious.
Villa may not have been relegated – thankfully – but outcomes could have been far worse, and fans should pay careful watch to Queens Park Rangers’ future if they do, as expected, go down.
Why? QPR are a team with horrendous control over their finances, a club who have suffered comparatively harder than Villa as a result of unfettered spending under the wrong manager, with Harry Redknapp seeming to escape unscathed as another of his former clubs descends into oblivion.
Getting back to Villa, Sherwood has displayed an ability to maximise potential at zero cost, a thought that would surely have gotten Randy Lerner rubbing his hands with glee for profit maximisation, had it not been far too late in his tenure at the club as Villa’s American owner heads for the door.
Instead, it may well be the case that Lerner owes Sherwood a large debt of gratitude given Villa’s valuation in the top flight is markedly more than it would be had the club descended into the Championship. Such a fate is not impossible, even now, but it does seem increasingly improbable.
So, with another win under his belt, Sherwood has transformed Villa from a club who were frightened and paranoid on the pitch, to a team that could easily have been mistaken for the Villa of old. If Sherwood can build upon such a fabulous start, he may even become the first Villa manager to win silverware for the club since Brian Little, and the first man to take the FA Cup since Eric Houghton’s team did in 1957.
A few short months ago, many may have been skeptic – this writer included – but Sherwood is showing that not only is a more than capable manager, but that fans will be intensely angered if a change of owner results in such a bright prospect having his chance cut short for a second time.
The future’s bright, and the future – hopefully – is there for Sherwood’s Villa to write.

Comments 38

  1. Matt,

    Yes … we’re still in a state of shock and amazement at the transformation.

    And when you say that Villa are more like the team of old, I’d go so far as to say it looks more like the Big Ron and Little Brian and JG teams of the 1990s. This level of performance is far more like what we expect from the Villa, but we are only comparing it with three-and-a-half seasons of drudgery, so anything after that period would be better!

    But, importantly, we are seeing wonderful new shoots emerging. Old players have been transformed and new players are being given their head.

    There’s enough there to give hope and (as you suggest) I am sure Sherwood would relish the chance to take this team to new and far greater levels.

    Bring on the Gunners on May 30! πŸ™‚

  2. Well written article, Matt. Cheers.
    I agree with JL. Players seem less stifled and seem to be flourishing with TS at the helm. Though Villa is still in the relegation scrap, can’t forget that; there is more hope, and the light at the end of the tunnel seems a lot nearer.

    I hope Sherwood stays on, but I also hope they get the best of Villa past and present in to help out.

  3. I read yesterday an article saying that Randy wants the new owners to make sure there is 50 million to spend on transfers. I hope so

    I think we will win out last two games also. I hope QPR go don today, and I hope Hull survive and Newcastle drop

    I can’t stop thinking about the squad for next season now. TS has said he wouldn’t have sold Danniel Johnson. He’s said he watched Gardner play DM for Forrest.

    So, we need a quality keeper. Sell Given or Guzan

    We need a right back and defo a left back. Sell Richardson and Sissy. We have a young lad called Kinsella at the youths. Baker, Clark, Donacian, Vlaar and Okore centre backs.

    Midfield. Gil will go. Sanchez to maybe. Cole. Sinclair. I don’t know to keep him or not. GG and Westy as DM’s, sign Clev, re sign Johnson who could play the Delph role. Sign an out and out winger

    Up top. Sell Kosak, Wiemann Bent. Robbinson back. Sign another target man

  4. Agree John, for the first time in years we have a team worth watching, not just getting results but playing good football too. Strange that TS has transformed the club in such a short time with the same players as Lamebert had and also with potential first teamers out on loan and other promising young players being sold. The damage that Lerner and Lamebert have done to AVFC is appalling and could have easily been terminal, we won’t see RL again after the club is sold but McMumble will infest football for as long as some idiot owner gives him the task of destroying another club as he so nearly did with ours.

    Credit to Tom Cleverley, despite all the slating of his early performances ( courtesy of Lamebert ), the bloke stuck at it and has completely won over the fans, the joy he’s displayed after scoring speaks volumes for his character and i for one, hold my hands up and admit i was wrong about his capabilities. Sometimes a player fits into a club perfectly, i hope that TC realises that Villa is the best club for his career never mind the money for now.

    Rather than protect Grealish the refs seem to be stigmatising him by ignoring many of the fouls on him by the likes of Song, no wonder we don’t produce extravagant ball players when our gutless officials allow them to be kicked to pieces by no-talents.

  5. Can anyone explain why the Holte should give Agbonglahor the welcome they did ? he then proceeded to display why he should never be allowed on the VP pitch except to mow it, no talent and no heart.

  6. Thank you matt hope you find time to comment more as you are missed.
    I think ts’s style of football eclipses anything in the lerner era. Yes the austerity was tough on lambert but it appears to of been taken to a low it needn’t have.
    My biggest regret is the loss of talent shown the door and the miss handling of player who could of helped transition.
    I would make johnson one of my first signing a mistake on par with mon selling cahill.

    Still onwards to better things utv

  7. Don’t have many but just had a thought, on other blogs peeps are banging on about JG’s lack of goals, be nice if his first was the winner vs Arsenal.

  8. yes Matt amazing turn around

    4th time lucky with the manager and its no supprise that the general wasnt involved this time

    Brilliant win ratio and considering it took 3 games for ts to start getting his methods across makes it even more increadable

    if we can get at least a draw that should be our prem status sorted vs the saints

    the big question after that is who will own the club and who will be the manager

  9. Does anyone think we need Sinclair? The more I think about it the more I really don’t want Sinclair, I’d like keep Charlie.

  10. steamer- that’s because they are short sighted, Grealish is the glue that makes the midfield and attack work, they look for him and vice versa. Goals will come imo but that may require other’s to create more space for him as he does for them. At the moment he draws 2 sometimes 3 players who all look petrified to tackle him around the edge of the box, great for others to make runs, talking of which Sinclair would thrive off him I just think TS is using the if at ain’t broke don’t fix it approach at the moment. A top quality fullback would help too though.

    rags for me it will all depend on TS’s vision, he has already said this is us getting to safety and not the finished article. Where Sinclair would fit is down I think to the formation he will use but I think he will build around Grealish.

  11. That said we are supposed to be looking at tricky right wingers so you would assume Sinclair will stay in a potential 442 4312 with grealish as the second striker?

  12. I would’nt worry about jacks lack of goals , how many times has he opened up teams in the last few games for his colleagues? He’s very Pirlo-esque in his vision. Hope he declares for Ireland.

  13. Prox
    l hope he declares for Ireland because if he goes for England the press will slaughter him as they like to build a player up to knock him down , Brillaint show on the TV the other night , Football Mavericks all the players who had skill in abundance but were hardly if ever picked for England and they were the players who got you off your arse down to the games to watch even if they played against your team ,
    Frank Worthington was one and years ago while he was at the blues he used to come in the Cork & bottle and me and my brother gave him stick no end but had a great laff with him , and about 6 years later he done a one man show and turned up at my brothers football teams club and we sat on the front and when he saw us he said ” Oh fuck who let the bastard brothers in ” but the tales he told were briliiant , but he was to skillful for the England set-up and its still about now so l hope Jack goes with Ireland as the villa will suffer , l remember that arse of a manager saying he wont let his skillful young players go to the England training camps as they came back bloody useless . it was Fregie ,
    anyway hope your well mate

  14. Yeah, I saw it mate , very entertaining . Was worthington the elvis nut?
    Jg would add guile to the Irish set up which is lacking at the moment. Wherever he goes I hope they just let him play his football and not just try to institutionalise him with their negative , insecure bullshit.

  15. where did this team come from coached to hell and back with german badges ,bullying,players running riot o why fox did you not flip coin sooner.
    i take back all the abuse i gave cleverly now please sign new contract sherwood is like fergie compared to martinez
    team playing with a swagger not seen for many a year at villa park and all down to sherwood and backroom squad, all players that are playing have improved no end and shows why wiemen is no more gabby yesterday showed how much of joke he is clean through and fell over pack his bags please
    for now sherwood has to get cleverly over line sinclair yes then a good keeper centre half and striker
    no more 9/10 summer signings at 2/3million

  16. Big yes to sinclair, for 2.5 mill is a snip. Seeing as we are playing 4321 him and gill are great cover/options for jack and nzog.

    We still have work to do. Dont trust spurs to finish hull

  17. James G- funny thing is how much are those cheap players worth now? if we get cleverly and Sinclair on a free how much are they worth after rediscovering themselves at villa, how much for Okore, benteke, bakuna, delph , grealish,westwood, clarke, baker even Gil? we have gone from a team costing Less than Β£30 mil to being worth ????
    On that basis I wouldn’t rule out the cheap route.

  18. Even bleeding wet spam are at it, its like these teams don’t know when they’ve been outplayed. According to cresswell all they needed was a goal? well woopy doo genius you’ll have to have shots to do that, all we needed was a goal and we got it, you didn’t.
    Am I coming over as bitter?

  19. Thank you everyone for their comments.

    It has been a shame I haven’t been on as much as I would have hoped, but work seems to be keeping me away πŸ™

    Sherwood has had a pretty amazing impact – far beyond anything many could have predicted.

    What we need to do now is finish strongly and win that cup – will give me a bit more hope now that I’ve renewed again.

    (I’d have renewed anyway, but it is always good to feel positive about going to matches!)

  20. Hi Matt,

    You mention Randy’s desire for “profit maximisation”. Well that has also taken an upward leap since Sherwood’s arrival. My son and I arrived at VP at 1.30 yesterday and we went straight to the Club Shop. The queue stretched away outside, along to the ticket office. We eventually managed to gain entrance and then found that the queue to pay stretched the whole length of the shop. There was another very long queue for names being printed on shirts. In all the years I have been coming to VP I have never seen so many people crammed into the Club Shop. And I’m pretty sure it got even busier after 2.00. Clearly fans were buying things with the Cup Final in mind, but the the turnover, together with the attendance figure of 39,000 must have put a smile on Tom Fox’s face.

  21. Evening Matt and all.

    I have been trying to comment all day, but I can’t access the site from my mobile – each time the screen goes white.

    Yes, I feared that Sherwood was all bluster and ego when he arrived. I remember listening to Talk Sport before the Albion game and I think it was Darren Gough who was laughing at all his “Sherwoodisms” and he said “the guy is either the biggest idiot or he is a genius”. With the stats that Runtingz has produced, his effect on the morale, spirit, and their technical ability – I am beginning to believe he is the latter, a genius . It is remarkable as you say Matt and I for one am flabergasted with the improvement. You only have to look at the expressions on their faces to know that he has worked wonders with their confidence.

    It is not just the fact that the team are creating more chances, the players are actually playing better. The improvement in Benteke’s shot accuracy is phenomenal (backed up by the stats) The pass accuracy improvement the same. Better training and confidence. Not so long ago we were embarrassing to watch – incapable of passing to another claret and blue, fluffing set pieces and generally looking like a Championship standard team. Most people on here thought that they were under performing and TS has demonstrated this was the case.

    I couldn’t watch the game yesterday, but had Talk Sport on when I was out and about and its great to hear that the team went off to a standing ovation again at half time. How often did that happen under the previous two managers.

    Many pundits and journalists excused Lambert’s poor record by saying he didn’t have the funds. Well Tim Sherwood hasn’t either but these same players are capable of beating anyone the way he has them playing . Lack of funds or lack of managerial abiltiy?

    So I am eating humble pie – because Tim has turned out to be exceptional. I thought he was a cockney wide boy, who had had a lucky 30 games at THS. But no. His decisions to keep Villa people on board – his team selections – his transformation of the team – all have been outstanding. I really like that fact that he didn’t put Gabby straight back in the team – and rewarded Zog for his performance against the toffees. I admire him for giving Guzan a rest and putting his faith in GIven along with publicly paying tribute to Given for his “professionalism” when he was cast out by Lambert. I love his courage and enthusiasm to use the younger players and his nurturing of the most exciting talent to come out of BMH in Grealish (his feet are so quick!)

    One last comment , I mentioned Okore against the toffees – as he played in front of where we were sitting and I think he deserved more praise. He was superb – but if he doesn’t get the camera shots then he goes unnoticed. I am delighted that he has been recognised against the hammers – as he is becoming a tremendous player and his size is deceptive – he may look like a tank but he can really move.

    QPR – pathetic. Burnley good fight but were never going to compete. Praying it isn’t Hull as the third – my nephew. Have Sunderland used up all their luck or is it to be the Toon Army. I hope it is the Toon Army, serve them and Cashly right.

  22. If we stay up the cup final is a day for us. 4 years of being embarrased, laughed at, ignored by the football world and being put through the worst times i have ever had as a fan. Hand on heart i wont be too fussed win or lose. As long as we are up i can finaly see the light again. Good positive footy, no faulkner, no lamb and new owners on the horizan.
    The day out at wembley for me is for our superb fans

  23. Good to see all the positive words on this blog!

    It’ surprising what one manager can do to change around the atmosphere – and that with no change in personnel.

  24. You can tell the Villa are back, the mealie neighbours who used to stop and take the p now toot their horns and drive past without stopping.
    When a crappy little club like WHU think they have a divine right to three points despite being outclassed it shows just how far Villa had fallen, or possibly Cresswell is a moron.

  25. In Tim We Trust I jokingly penned that when he got the job but how prophetic it was, in just a short time he has put the smiles back on the faces of players and fans alike, the transformation is stunning and credit must also go to Tims backroom staff who have helped him make such a difference.

    Although mathematically we are not safe I think the players have enough about them to secure the points to keep us in this division, then comes the hard part not forgetting the cup final but the hard work will come in the summer, if players have to leave so be it but lets make sure we get the right money, some of the figures I have seen quoted for Benteke are laughable, look at the money spent on Andy Barrell and untied have just spent Β£30m on a average winger.

    Back to Saturdays performance a real gritty win with some good football played and young Jack could be a real talent, on the negative side when Gabby went through late on with virtually one on one with the keeper it was the worst attempt at a finish I have seen in a long time, legend anyone or bellend.

    AVFC ITWT

  26. Matt: “Whilst Lambert was certainly right to be sacked, he did oversee a period where cuts were imposed and, to his credit, he did keep the club afloat during the period, even if his final months were atrocious.”

    I’ve been chewing over this particular view, and though I can’t really disagree, my thought is that *anyone* could have done the job that Lambert did. It added nothing and took away plenty from the stature of the club where clearly TS has shown that there was and is an alternative way.

  27. On the Cleverly situation on Soccer Saturday Merson was fairly confident that TC will end up playing his football further south of Birmingham, he seemed to be ITK on this issue and he said it was not just because his girlfriend works in London.

    Time will tell we know there will not be a decision made before the FA cup final because he will not want to jeopardise his place.

    AVFC ITWT

  28. Looking forward to surpassing the baggies and possibly catching Palace over the remaining two games, no pressure from me for the FA Cup final, going to drink all day and shout and sing at a telly. We can enjoy the day, TS won’t allow anything less than a performance and if we fight for every ball and use our firing midfielders in an attacking sense we will give Arsenal some game.

    Back to relegation matters much prefer the shoddy/scheming Sports Direct club and owner to taste relegation again than Hull, I can see Hull beating Spurs but if not then we’re proper safe, we’d have too much for Burnley anyway.

    Like us all, TS has earned the right to get his hands on a transfer kitty, to get rid of those who have done nothing for him and to reward those that have, That Paul Smith story still has legs but if Lerner does one last good thing for the club, sell it to someone who doesn’t have to organise funding, sell it to someone who can bankroll the purchase even if it’s not self financed.

    I’d also like to officially apologise to Sherwood and all the players because the previous reign did not reflect AVFC and we now have the Villa we always wanted, effective, easy on the eye goal scoring football, basically Chelsea without the shite bits or Barcelona without the biter.

    Three games to go, not wishing them away but I can’t wait for next season. Roll on the saints game for now.

    UTV

  29. Excellent article Matt, and like everyone else, good to see you contributing more.

    Also many good comments , and another excellent piece from Jen.

    It shows exactly what had been said before about leadership, and how one man can make a difference, without changing personnel, and I am amused by all the comments on the players we need now, before Sherwood has even had the opportunity of assessing everyone on his books.I am sure that as and when he needs to look at buying players, he will, but already he has proved, with the right input, we have many good players. Some unfortunately have got away, but from now on, at least the ones we have, will have a chance.

    Really looking forward to Wembley now, and watching a Villa team dedicated to playing the beautiful game.

  30. G’day all, over in Switzerland at the moment and on my way to Greece tomorrow – won’t be back until the last day of the season. This is one of the reasons I foolishly didn’t buy a season ticket this time as I am away so much. Stupid me eh?!
    Anyway, it’s so good to hear all the positive stuff on this site after so long of hearing and feeling negative about everything AVFC related. I am loving the ‘new’ villa and its supporters and its confidence in everything we do. We just need to keep some of our key players and build on what does indeed seem a bright future.
    Given up on trying to get a cup final ticket but know that fans and team will do the name proud …….
    Incredible that is was such a short time ago that we were all prophets of doom and despair …………. All hail Tim the man!
    So – old uns, young uns, ladies and gentlemen, steamers, c-crew, witton warriors et al ………. Maybe the villas time is coming again, enjoy the last three games and let’s look forwards to better times that befit the name Aston Villa.

Leave a Reply