With almost every possible result going against Aston Villa, save for West Ham defeating Wigan, the relegation scrap appears to be a two-horse race. The last thing I want to do at the moment is to go over Villa’s and Wigan’s remaining fixtures and reenact the last scene of Big Fan and predict the outcomes and arrive at a point total for both sides. Several pundits have done that and at various times have tipped the entire bottom half of the table for the drop. I read on Twitter one fan say that all Villa have to do is better Wigan by one point from now until the last week of the season to ensure safety and save themselves a nervy fight for survival in front of thousands of fans dressed up as blue seats.
That got me thinking of exactly what Villa will have to do to ensure safety. Looking at the current table, Villa have a three point advantage over Wigan with a goal difference one goal to the worse. To save everyone a headache, let’s assume Villa can’t overtake Wigan’s advantage in goal difference. Wigan have also scored one more goal, so if Villa manage to tie Wigan on goal difference, they will also have to pass them in goals scored. For our purposes lets assume that Villa will have to finish with more points than Wigan.
Recently, watching Fox Soccer here in America, I saw them apply the Magic Number statistic to Manchester United as they were closing in on the title. Primarily used in baseball, the “magic number” is the number of games a team in first needs to win to clinch their division or league. Every loss the team chasing the team in first also reduces the magic number. Using points in a football table as opposed to wins in standings in baseball , Villa’s Magic Number for safety is 13 (assuming Wigan maintain their advantage in goal difference, and goals scored).
Wigan currently sit on 31 points, with 15 points left on offer. Theoretically, Wigan could still finish with 46 points. In that scenario, Villa who currently have 34 points would need to pick up 13 to ensure they finish ahead of Wigan.
So, Villa fans: put up a big #13 on your wall or refrigerator. Treat it like an advent calendar. For every point Villa pick up and/or Wigan drop, the magic number drops accordingly.
While researching this article I noticed that the third tie-breaker beyond goal difference, and goals scored, is a play-off at a neutral venue. Given how close the two clubs are in both of the first two tie-breakers this is a real possibility. While a neutral or anybody who loves entropy would relish such a game, the thought of it is literally making my hyper-ventilate. I am not a cigarette smoker, but the idea of a playoff for survival might be enough for me to buy a carton.
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