I wanted to do a preview for the game against Manchester United but also wanted to tackle a topic that has come up over the weekend – how Aston Villa can progress from here, and whether the current trajectory is the best one, the only one, or the wrong one.
Some have made a point that fan opinions on who we can secure are always seemingly one polar opposite or the other – we are either looking at overpaid experienced players vs unproven ones. In the eyes of those fans, the implication is that fans are unable to see that there is a middle ground where players could be established but also fair value.
What I want to do is look at the feasibility of how Villa can move forwards and how, in my opinion, the middle ground is something of a misnomer – an invisible concept that appears viable in abstract terms but, in reality, works out as a rare, if at all existing, proposition.
As a fan, we only need look back at transfers between clubs to know that there are several reasons why players move clubs. They are:
1) A player is looking to prove himself at a higher level and will look to move to a bigger club – i.e. James Milner leaving for Manchester City
2) A player is willing to move clubs because he is motivated by money and will move where he can be paid best – i.e Darren Bent moving from Sunderland to Aston Villa
3) A player wants to win things (ultimately the zenith of category 1) – i.e. Robin van Persie’s transfer from Arsenal to Manchester United.
4) A player has failed at the level they are currently playing at and/or are not being selected and thus want to play football at a team where they will get a game – i.e. Michael Owen moving from Manchester United to Stoke City
5) A player is older and wants to get a final shot at some money from the Premier League. These players are at the end of their career and are looking for a final payday – i.e. Jurgen Klinsmann’s move to Tottenham in the 90s, Fabrizio Ravanelli moving to Middlesbrough, or the likes of Youri Djorkaeff and Jay-Jay Okocha at Bolton Wanderers under Sam Allardyce
6) A player wanting a loan so he can either improve his standing at his home club or otherwise find a path to the first team – i.e. Danny Sturridge or Jack Wilshere at Bolton a few years ago, Josh McEachran at Swansea from Chelsea, or Kyle Walker on loan at Villa Park a couple of seasons back.
There are other reasons for moving clubs such as homesickness or wanting to play abroad but the above six categories cover most of the choices a modern professional footballer can make.
If we are to use Villa as the destination for any player aiming for one of the above reasons for a move, we can – fairly clearly – view where those players are going to come from.
Where The Players Come From
Category 1 players are, for the most part, what we are seeing Paul Lambert purchase. These types of move are not new or surprising – some of Martin O’Neill’s most successful purchases fit this narrative. Think Ashley Young and James Milner of the MON era or Christian Benteke or Ashley Westwood under Lambert. This is the core of the current manager’s philosophy.
Category 2 players are no longer what Villa want to look at. We have, in the past, made these moves before out of necessity. Buying Darren Bent was a costly exercise and we motivated him to leave a team higher in the league via money.
Category 3 players, with the greatest of respect, are not coming to Villa. Without sounding too brutally honest, Villa have won nothing in the past 15+ years. That isn’t to say that the club couldn’t win something in future, but rather that Villa are outsiders for any competition we enter, hence player motivation is not based on a winning expectation.
Category 4 players also appear to be consigned to the annals of history. Whilst “failed” may be an overly dramatic way of framing the players concerned, few can say that we struggled to get Alan Hutton from Tottenham because of his excellent performances – they were getting rid of him and we bought him.
Again, these transfers are replicated across Villa’s past. Some of them had modest wages, whilst others have had large ones. Some have been successful (Paul McGrath being the biggest), but most haven’t. The reality is that Villa’s successes of other failures are either down to a player finding their true level or, in the case of McGrath, his former manager not being happy with his off-the-field drinking. We can still go for category 5 players but fans aren’t generally happy with us getting “cast-offs”.
Category 5 players are fairly rare for Villa. The closest recent transfer was that of Robert Pires. Another past Villa transfer was Luc Nilis. On the whole, this category of players don’t (generally) fit our current club structure, but they aren’t impossible if necessary.
Category 6 players will come in when necessary but it seems many fans are critical of this approach. When Kyle Walker came in and had a great season for Villa, I heard a lot of disagreement on why we should improve a player for another team, only having to hand them back when they do well. In my opinion, that misses the point – I’d rather have a player keep us winning than not.
The other type of players who come in are the likes of Jermaine Jenas or Simon Dawkins. Neither have (really) done much in their times at the club, though Dawkins may yet have a future. Again, fans will say they don’t see the point of their loans if they aren’t successful but, with my aforementioned point about improving players before, it seems managers can’t win if a loan player is successful or not.
Where Is The Magical Player?
So with those categories outlined, the question on where we could have bought a player who is both experienced and interested in competing with Villa earlier this season – admittedly partly a historic statement given circumstances will change next time around.
Take a look at the moves around the league this season and you can see them fitting the categories above. Michu, a player lauded by many this season, had no Premier League experience but has been a success – hardly a surprise for anyone watching La Liga given his goalscoring antics from midfield last season with Rayo Vallecano.
Steven Fletcher, Danny Graham, or Adam Johnson are a combination of categories. Fletcher wanted to stay in the Premier League so left Wolverhampton Wanderers, Graham wanted money and a regular slot, and Adam Johnson had failed in real terms at Manchester City. All three of them will be on contracts that are at or above our wage ceiling.
The bigger transfers this season – Eden Hazard, Javi Garcia, or A N Other player at the top of the Premier League – are of no relevance to Villa. With the greatest of respect, they won’t come to Villa no matter whether Randy Lerner stacks £200k or £500k in front of them.
With all that absorbed, is there really an elusive category of player we are able to sign that is both experienced and cheap in wage terms? If so, who are these players that don’t fit one of the above categories, ie being previously failed or up-and-coming? I’d be interested to hear who you think could fit our wage structure and improve the team as it stood this season.
Statistics provided by EA Sports
Manchester United v Aston Villa 20:00
– Manchester United came from behind twice to draw 2-2 with West Ham in their midweek game, thanks to goals from Antonio Valencia and Robin van Persie.
– After a long drought by his own high standards Robin van Persie has now scored in his last two Premier League games for Manchester United, breathing life into the golden boot race as he now has 21 goals compared to Suarez’s 22.
– Van Persie has been the more efficient of the two strikers in getting to this tally, taking just 5.52 shots per goal compared to Suarez’s 7.4 shots per goal.
– If Manchester United do go on to win their 20th Premier League title it will be down to their lethal and efficient attacking play which has allowed United to continue to dominate even during van Persie’s goal drought. United have three of the top five players in the EA SPORTS Player Performance Index for minutes per goal or assist this season.
– Hernandez leads the ranking, averaging a goal or assist every 71 minutes this season, while van Persie is ranked third with one every 84 minutes, and Rooney fifth with one every 93 minutes. United are 10/3 with 888sport.com to score three goals against Aston Villa.
– At the other end of the pitch, Patrice Evra won 8 tackles against West Ham, more than any other player in the matches taking place last weekend or in midweek. That made Evra’s tackling performance the best in the EA SPORTS Player Performance Index by a United player so far this season, judged on the number of tackles won.
– Aston Villa earned a vital point in their fight for survival in their last league game against Fulham, and have the benefit of not having played in mid-week when facing United today.
– Ron Vlaar’s defensive performances will be key to Villa’s survival chances this season, and the Dutch defender has managed to put in a dominant defensive performance without giving away the fouls that can place a team in danger. Vlaar has attempted 51 tackles, giving away just 6 fouls, a rate of 8.5 tackles per foul conceded, the best in the EA SPORTS Player Performance Index (excluding those players who have attempted less than 30 tackles)
– Charles N’Zogbia scored for Villa against Fulham, just his second of the season, although he’s been more prolific at creating chances, clocking up six assists this season. That’s an average of one every 170 minutes while on the pitch, the sixth highest in the EA SPORTS Player Performance Index for player’s with more than one assist this season.
– Fabien Delph has made a name for himself for being tough in the tackle this season. He attempted twelve against Fulham, more than any other player in the last round of games and just one short of the EA SPORTS Player Performance Index’s record for tackles attempted in a game this season.
– Nathan Baker also boasted impressive defensive stats against Fulham, contributing more defensively than all but one other Villa player has in a game this season. Baker contributed defensively 27 times across won tackles, clearances, interceptions and blocks, one every 3 minutes 20 seconds. The only Villa player to have done more in a game this season is Ciaran Clark against Sunderland in November. Villa re 15/2 with 888sport.com to keep a clean sheet against Manchester United.
The Author
