I know a lot of us didn’t expect much from the Arsenal match even if Villa have given as good an account of themselves at the Emirates as anyone else. Some thought we’d get hammered, some thought we might get a point. It really seemed to depend on Arsenal’s psyche after midweek more than anything we could do to influence the outcome.

And yet, we found ourselves 1-1, Andreas Weimann finishing a nice counter-attack to level proceedings and put Villa in with at least a theoretical chance of a point.

Which, of course, is where it all went wrong once again.

That isn’t to say that Arsenal hadn’t been bossing the second half. They had. But once again, with a result in the balance, Villa sunk back and invited even more pressure that they couldn’t handle.

I was set to draw a conclusion that won’t surprise anyone, because we’ve seen Villa sides for several seasons now play off and pay the price.

Then I was watching a replay of the Milan-Barcelona game, and it struck me how familiar the game looked, and especially Milan’s defending.

The difference (besides quality)? Discipline.

While I usually call on Villa to exert more pressure up the pitch and stop inviting it (which I still think is the right idea for this bunch), what they’ve been trying to do doesn’t necessarily have to be disastrous. Even though it’s been turning out that way.

Don’t overcommit; stay goalside; keep it in front of you; don’t play it across the goal. All schoolboy basics.

But if you’re going to sit back and try to soak it up, you have to have discipline. You can’t switch off, you can’t ball watch. You have to anticipate, rotate, watch the back door, and know when to force the issue in the middle.

And Villa just haven’t been able to pull it off long enough, often enough. Whether it’s a tactical decision or the default result of a lack of confidence, it comes out to the same thing. They get pulled around and something eventually gives.

What’s been perplexing to me is how long it’s been happening, given the turnover in players and managers. If you’re short on confidence or quality, sitting back makes a certain kind of sense. And learning to play that game and make it work is a reasonable ambition. You can get a result against a lot of good teams if you can defend and counter.

But if the defending part always goes wrong eventually, well…You’ve got nothing to lose trying something else. Unless you’re going to concede even more goals.

A 2-1 defeat at Arsenal is a ‘respectable’ enough result in context. But when you find yourself in with a shout of crucial, unexpected points, you’ve simply got to find a way to keep hold of them. I’d much rather Villa were sitting 17th and two points behind Southampton instead of 18th, level with Wigan and a full three points away from putting someone else between them and the drop zone.

Not surprisingly Villa leave London empty handed, and it was a game with all the hallmarks we’ve come to expect. I’ll not expect anything from City, but after that, Villa really are running out of chances.

Nevertheless, Happy Birthday, Matt. Make that wish count, buddy.

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