With Chelsea the next opponents for Aston Villa, fans of the Birmingham club will be hoping to keep up the club’s unbeaten run.
In order to make this festive game a little different to preview, I’ve invited Grant James of Football Analysis to offer his thoughts on the game, and see whether Chelsea fans are as optimistic as our own supporters following a similar period of upheaval. Grant found my work via Talk Tactics, my Monday column discussing the effect of our current tactical choices.
Grant’s site won Sports Illustrated’s South Africa Blog of the Month award in November 2012 and contains tactical analysis pieces about multiple teams. You can follow Grant via Twitter tag @GrantJames_CFC and the Football Analysis website via Twitter tag @footy_analysis
Q: With Chelsea also a team with a new manager this season (following the removal of Roberto di Matteo by chairman Roman Abramovich), just what is the real fan feeling towards the recently appointed Rafael Benitez?
A: We dislike him immensely. I saw an article this week saying that Benitez could expect a better reaction at Leeds as the away fans are the die-hard ones and not the “plastics” who have been booing him. Wrong. It’s the most hardcore fans who are totally against him, whereas a large portion of the “big him a chance” brigade are actually the less educated fans. His comments this week about the Real Madrid job, and offers from German clubs, shows we were right all along – he is simply using Chelsea as a way to get himself back in the spotlight after doing very little in his career since 2008. Two of our best players from the start of the season, Mikel and Oscar, have found themselves dropped. In summary, he’s just not a good fit, as good a manager as he makes out, and his condescending, self-righteous attitude seals the deal. Rafa Out!
Q: Encounters between Villa and Chelsea have been high scoring affairs in the past. Who do you think poses the biggest threat of the current Chelsea squad?
A: Right now, Mata is on fire and as good as any player in the league. He’s already got 12 goals this season, which was his tally for the whole of last season. Also, and I say this with no disrespect, but Torres tends to score all his goals against sides in the lower reaches of the league. He also scored against Villa last season. Hazard, Oscar and Moses (all terrific signings) are pretty tasty too! Lampard’s record against Aston Villa is incredible so he might be a good bet for a goal too.
Q: And, on the other side, who do Chelsea fans fear from the Villa team?
A: Benteke. I’ve liked him from day one, even after he missed a few chances against West Brom. He has all the raw tools to be a massive hit in the Premier League (like Lukaku). I also really like Brett Holman. Generally, Lampard is less effective when he is pressed and can’t get his head up and pick out his passes. Ramires is also less effective with his back to goal and closed down quickly. Neither is a genuine defensive midfielder, so Holman bursting past them on the break will be a threat, as will be pace of Weimann in the space Ashley Cole leaves.
Q: Tactically, Villa have been very adaptive this season moving from 4-4-2, to 4-2-3-1, to 3-5-2 as Paul Lambert iterates his strategy going forwards. What are your thoughts on Villa’s changes tactically given your background in analysis?
A: I really, really like Lambert. He was very versatile with Norwich too, using different shapes and personnel for different opponents. This season, he has dropped Given (deservedly) and Bent, who offers nothing to the cause besides finishing off moves. He has used a 532 and a 4-diamond-2 a fair bit, which allows a front 2. Few teams actually face a front 2 these days, plus it allows you to stop teams to like to use short build-up play. It irritates me when Chelsea supporters think that we should be “above” changing tactics against different opponents. Apparently, we should look to assert ourselves on the opposition. This is the Arsene Wenger attitude. For example, I would be happy to see us play a back 3 when we face Wigan or Juventus. Of all the young managers, Rodgers, Lambert and even AVB, I can see Lambert having a massive career, even if may be in another country. Modern, adaptable, tactically aware – a manager after my own heart!
Q: Chelsea have previously been known for 4-3-3 variant formations, though the exit of both Nicolas Anelka and Didier Drogba seems to have made the formation less like past iterations. Do you think Chelsea need to buy more players to get back to that system, or do you think Benitez is going to adapt the formation round a sole striker in Fernando Torres in the longer term?
A: Well, we’ve used a 4231 since Di Matteo took over, and have continued with that shape with Benitez. In theory, it makes sense because we have Mata, Hazard and Oscar who all consider themselves best as the number 10. However, it means both Lampard and Ramires have to sacrifice their attacking instincts. I’d prefer a return to 433 with Oscar deeper. That would protect the central areas better, and allow Ramires to press high up the pitch, and break forward using his pace. Torres clearly doesn’t have the mentality to play as a lone striker. I prefer him working the channels where he can create space for others. Having a team geared towards creating chances for a “past-it” centre forward is a crazy strategy.
Q: Finally, and perhaps most relevant in terms of the match, what do you think the score will be on Sunday? Are fans considering the game against Villa easy or difficult?
A: I think a 2-0 win. Chelsea supporters will be expectant, but most are aware of Villa being 6 games unbeaten in all competitions, and your record at Stamford Bridge of late. There’s also a lot of respect for the job Lambert is doing. Despite some good wins against weaker sides, Benitez has only won 1 out of 4 league games. Anything less than 3 points will see mass booing and more “Rafa out” chants.
So there’s the view of a Chelsea fan, now here are the key statistics:
Stat Attack – In association with EA Sports
– Chelsea will be hoping to mark their return to the Premier League with a win, following their disappointment in the World Club Cup. They will be looking to pick up where they left off in the league where on their last outing they beat Sunderland 1-3 at the Stadium of Light. Fernando Torres’ continued his return to prominence with two goals and Rafa Benitez will be looking to his star striker to again deliver the goods this weekend.
– Fernando Torres continues to shrug off the criticism that seems to always follow his play in recent months by compiling some truly excellent statistics. The Spanish striker appears to be approaching something close to his best again, racking up a 73% shot accuracy rate from 30 attempts, 6 goals and 5 assists.
– In the absence of John Terry, David Luiz has been keen to step into Chelsea’s defensive talisman’s shoes. According to the EA SPORTS Player Performance Index he’s been throwing himself into his work this season, making 48 interceptions and 11 clearances.
– Eden Hazard’s form may have dipped slightly since the start of the season but the Belgian magician has still be producing enough to see him joint top of the EA SPORTS Player Performance Index for assists with 10 as well as being Chelsea’s top dribbler with 19. Don’t count against Hazard getting on the scoresheet himself this weekend though, he’s 9/4 to score at 888sport.com.
– Midfield maestro Juan Mata continues to be the fulcrum around which much of Chelsea’s play is centred. He’s successfully completed 472 passes in the opponent’s half this season and has provided 6 assists.
– No Chelsea player has given away more fouls this season than John Obi Mikel with 26, and Rafa Benitez will be looking to his midfield enforcer to tighten up some of his more wayward challenges in the next half of the season.
– Aston Villa produced a superb all-round performance as they dominated Brendan Rogers’ rising Liverpool side 1-3. An inspired Christian Benteke was too much for the Reds’ defence to handle as he helped himself to a brace, in between which he produced a sublime backheel to set up Andreas Weimann to slot home.
– All the headlines were unsurprisingly about Christian Benteke on Sunday, as the Belgian striker produced yet another stunning performance against Liverpool. He is now undoubtedly Aston Villa’s primary goal threat and is relishing life in the Premier League. He’s has 46 attempts on goal this season, 79% of which have worked the keeper. He’s also 10/3 at 888sport.com to continue in this rich vein of form and score against Chelsea on Sunday.
– Crucial to the win over Liverpool was the hard work put in off the ball by the likes of Ashley Westwood, who ran for a highly impressive 7.06 miles according to the EA SPORTS Player Performance Index. He has now topped the Aston Villa distance charts now for a remarkable 8 games in a row.
– He still has a little way to go thought before he moves ahead of Matthew Lowton for distance travelled for Villa this season. He’s on the verge of breaking through the magic 100 mile barrier as he currently sits on 98.19 miles.
– If ever you needed evidence of what a captain who leads by example can do for a team, just take a look at Ron Vlaar. Aston Villa’s leader continues to pile up some remarkable defensive statistics according to the EA SPORTS Player Performance Index. Not only does he have a 74% success rate from his 31 attempted tackles, he’s also made 50 interceptions to boot.
– Bradley Guzan remains one of the busiest keepers in the league as we move into the next round of fixtures. The Villa stopper has made 93 saves this season, being called into action on average once every 15.5 minutes.
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