Tomorrow sees the unbeaten Magpies come to Villa Park in what many will view as a “must-win” game. I’ll go so far as to say it’s a “could-win” maybe even a “should-win” game. But being as it’s at home and Newcastle struggled to produce anything—and were lucky not to concede against QPR—I can see where “must-win” will get substituted by many for one of my preferences.
And perhaps one could rightly say it’s a must-win when it comes to lifting Villa supporters’ spirits and brushing some of the doldrums away. Not that the doldrums should be particularly deep or heavy when you haven’t lost yet in a season and are sitting eighth with the fifth-best goal differential in the league. I know that’s putting a bit of a positive spin on things, but obviously they really could be worse. And, of course, they could be a bit better.
Formation
Personally, I have no idea how Alan Pardew is going to view the game sitting fourth, having won two and drawn two and scoring only three goals. Based on the fact they’ve conceded only once in those four outings and don’t score much, I’d expect him to set out not to lose the game first.
Of course, that’s what many are afraid McLeish will do.
In Pardew’s comments after the Rangers’ game, Pardew he said, “We went with two strikers but with all the exuberance here with all the players they have brought in, maybe I should have helped my central midfielder out.” This may still be on his mind, especially if he thinks Villa will continue with a 4-2-3-1. But since exuberance doesn’t often appear in the same sentence as Villa Park lately, it may not.
Regardless, we can be assured that with Heskey out at least two to three weeks we’re going to see at least one more change in the Villa side that’s won once and drawn three times scoring five and conceding three in the process.
The big question, of course, is whether McLeish will change tack and set out a 4-4-2 at home to team that’s a bit toothless, or stick with a variation of the 4-2-3-1 of which he seems quite fond.
Given the draws, and where this home fixture falls in the early-season pattern, I’m not going to be surprised to see a 4-4-2 with Bent and Gabby up front, as it seems McLeish may have been leaning that way when he thought he might not have Bent available for the Everton match. In other words, I can see McLeish wanting to state his intentions that he wants three points from this one.
The question here is that if McLeish plays a four-man midfield with presumably N’Zogbia and Petrov penciled in, who are the two to round things out? Giving Albrighton a start might make sense in this case, given he’s the only true line-hugging winger we have available, but Bannan’s played well, and might get the call. With Jenas out of the frame, I’d expect Delph’s run to continue.
On the other hand, since the 4-2-3-1 also employs Gabby and he’s been scoring, I can see McLeish simply swapping Bannan or Ireland into the midfield and leaving things otherwise unchanged to start with. He can always change things up if the game is there for the taking. From Petrov assessing the Everton match: “We were much better in the second half. We changed it a bit, played two up front with Gabby and Darren, which created some problems for them.”
Speaking of Petrov, he’s also saying he’s been given more license to get forward and wants to score more.
Ladbrokes’ site had someone calling for Bent to have a sit-down to give his groin a rest since he’s not been 100%. I don’t know whether or not this is an option for McLeish, but if it were, it would obviously see us with Gabby on his own up top.
Result
The last two times Newcastle have visited, Villa have won 1-0. Those looking for a scoring spectacular may want to consider that only three of Villa’s last 10 home games have produced more than two goals, and only three of Newcastle’s last 10 away games have produced more than two goals. Villa have lost just once at home in the last 10 outings, with five wins and four draws. In these 10 games, Villa have failed to score only twice and conceded seven, less than one a game. In Newcastle’s last 10 away games, they’ve scored six times (allowing 11), less than one a game.
Given Gabby’s recent form and the likelihood of more creativity in the side with Heskey out, I’m going to be bold and go for 2-0 to Villa.
The Author
