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Recent betting odds put Aston Villa at 10/1 to win at the Emirates on Saturday. Depending on your outlook, this may either be viewed as a great chance to bet on Villa, or proof of just how far we have gone downhill. It is though, one of the longest sets of odds I’ve seen for us in a long while.
Looking at the players on paper vs Arsenal’s team it is, in my opinion, nowhere near a 10/1 set of odds. Of course, I’m not saying that we will necessarily get anything from it, but if you look at how Stoke beat Arsenal 3-1 last Saturday, it shows that Arsenal aren’t as good as one would think.
So anyway, I just wanted to glance ahead at some ideas regarding the Arsenal game before I do a full preview on Friday. Looking at our current malaise in the dressing room, it will certainly be a tough one, and one that we (ideally) need a point or more from. In my opinion, we could probably do a lot worse than put more of the “kids” on the bench come the next two games. To me, people like Pires serve no purpose in our squad. Whether he is getting a bonus for sitting on the bench/coming on as a sub, or we are just out of our depth tactically (both are probable options). I’d much rather have Barry Bannan on the bench for instance. Ok, he might be young, but I think he poses ten times the threat of the now 37 year old Pires. Pires should stick to developing the kids on the training pitch rather than playing in our first team.
Out with the old, in with the new
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not saying Pires wasn’t a great player in his prime. The problem I have is that a) he isn’t in his prime any more, and b) he is playing out of position anyway. I understand why he is playing out of position (37 year old wingers with no pace don’t really scare the opposition) but, to me at least, there are far more people who could come on in his place. Delph. Bannan. Gardner. The list honestly goes on and on.
I remember when Delph made his debut. I thought at the time he had something special in his locker. However, I thought he operated better in a 4-5-1 or some close variation. Perhaps it is because he seems a little lightweight, or a little small. However, he did cost £8m so he shouldn’t be viewed as an academy level product. Either way, I think he operates better with three in the middle which, for me at least, means playing NRC, Petrov and A N Other with him. I’d like to say Bannan, but I think he might not be ready for that kind of setup. In reality it would be Ashley Young, albeit operating in a support striker role rather than truly out of the midfield.
Centre of attention
Looking briefly at why we are where we are, I like to point out that some of the collapse arose from a midfield injury crisis. Having to rely on youngsters at the time was far too much of an expectation level for them. People may criticise both Reo-Coker and Petrov for their lack of long term potential for the club, but back when we had to play Herd and Hogg in those areas, it was pretty evident we were going to be sliced through. Why? For the same reason that Delph doesn’t operate well in a flat 4 man midfield – they don’t have to footballing knowledge to know how to play the role effectively yet. That kind of knowledge comes only with age and experience. Unfortunately, you need to play to get experience, and our precarious situation means we can’t play anyone who isn’t experienced.
Anyway, the point I am making regarding the midfield crisis is that it is part of the reason why our defensive record has been so poor. People are very quick to jump on the Dunne & Collins bandwagon, but you don’t go from being a solid defensive partnership to a terrible one instantly. Yes, both Richard and James are a year older, but their faults are far more illustrated in a 4-2-3-1 formation than a counter-attacking 4-4-2. It is the tactics that show up the players for who they are. Barcelona, we are not.
If it was me picking the team for the rest of the season, I would personally go for:
Friedel / L. Young – Dunne – Collins – Walker / Downing – Delph or Bannan – Reo-Coker – Petrov – Young / Bent
In this kind of setup Reo-Coker and Petrov would be told to sit back deep in front of the currently precarious Dunne & Collins partnership. With cover there, it lets Dunne and Collins have a little bit of breathing space, which is something I personally think they could do with to get through these next few games. It also lets Walker and Luke Young roam up and down the wings in support of the wingers. The other option would be:
Friedel / L.Young – Dunne – Collins – Walker / Downing – Delph or Bannan – Reo-Coker – Petrov – Albrighton / Bent
Yes. I know it means we drop Ashley Young but, barring that free kick against Wigan, what has he really produced of note and, more importantly, what has he produced that Albrighton couldn’t do with a ton more enthusiasm?
The final option could be:
Friedel / L.Young – Dunne – Collins – Walker / Bannan – Reo-Coker – Downing – Petrov – Albrighton or Ashley Young / Bent
Downing is playing with a lot of cutting in, so maybe he might work better in a role similar to James Milner last season. After the Wigan match, I think Stewart has the capability to track back and make important defensive moves, whilst at the same time exhibiting creativity in the middle going forwards. Again, NRC and Petrov would sit back and rely on Downing and the wingers, supported by Luke Young and Walker, to provide the pace to attack.
I don’t for a second think that we will pull this sort of tactical move because of the “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation Houllier is in, but I think he could do a lot worse. Ok, my views aren’t backed up with a UEFA Pro License, but I know enough about setting up teams to be hard to beat to apply some universal concepts to a dispirited football team.
So there’s my thoughts prior to the full, stat backed, preview later this week. So, tell me, what do you think?
*** NOTE *** Apologies to anyone who experienced issues around 10:30 – 11:00pm UK time. We upgraded the forum server and due to a bug, it meant people trying to access articles kept being redirected to the home page instead of the article they were looking for. This issue has now been resolved, although it means the forum is deactivated till the bug is resolved. I apologise for any inconvenience this may have caused.
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