Who makes the difference?

Is our owner in over his head?

I once heard a very simple thing said by a veteran sportswriter who was trying to help disgruntled (aka homicidal/suicidal/very very angry) fans understand why their team wasn’t doing as well as they would have liked.

What he said was that the team with most “difference makers” usually wins.

I think it’s true. We see it every week. All we need is more difference makers.

Not so fast

We all know, of course, that there are other things that have to happen besides discovering and signing difference makers. There has to be an organization behind the players that expects success and then fosters and facilitates it.

We’ve been focusing a lot lately on Houllier and O’Neill – two men who are generally presumed to have screwed things up to varying degrees – for good reason.

But with Villa limping toward the finish line of a season we wish was simply forgettable, all eyes are turning toward Randy Lerner again. We implore him to understand our pain and suffering and do something about it since he’s the one who gets to make the decisions fundamental to whether Aston Villa are successful.

We have lots of questions. Including whether our owner understands football. We want to understand what’s going on. We want to know that things will get better.

What does Randy know?

I confess: I don’t know Lerner personally, so I can’t give a direct answer. But living in the States (Denver, home of the claret-and-blue Colorado Rapids of the MLS and the Broncos of the NFL) and given that I love football, whether it’s “football” football or the American version, I think I understand something about where Randy is likely coming from in regard to sports ownership in general.

He’s not naïve, Lerner. He understands how important a team is to its fans, how it’s part of the fabric of a community. He knows what Villa mean to the supporters. He understands history and tradition.

He’s seen, in the NFL, certain very successful and legendary owners. He’s seen his share of meddlesome egomaniacs and cynical opportunists.

He’s seen that successful owners tend to stay out of the way. They tend to delegate heavily. They demand success and set the bar at a certain height. They employ a lot of people who know more about the game than they do, because an NFL team has a lot more moving parts than an EPL team, (53 active players on the roster, and basically two separate 11-man teams with their attendant coaches).

He can see the difference between Villa and Barcelona, just like he can see the difference between the Green Bay Packers (last season’s unexpected NFL champs and my favorite team) or New England Patriots (who have largely outsmarted the league’s engineered parity) and his own Cleveland Browns.

He knows there are different philosophies and different flavors of the month. He knows that it isn’t so much the philosophy as its implementation that brings success. He knows that a team can rely on defense or offense and succeed. He knows the best teams usually excel at both. He knows injuries can ruin a season. He knows about losing the dressing room. He knows mercenaries and prima donnas. He knows Ash will bring him more on the market now than he will when he’s out of contract.

He knows that certain coaches/managers come with a fine pedigree. Others are precocious wunderkinds. He’s seen both succeed and fail. He knows that sometimes a head coach is given all responsibility for personnel decisions. He knows that just as often a head coach is asked to work with a General Manager, the American version of a Director of Football. He himself has employed that model in Cleveland, where he hired Mike Holmgren to run the Browns. He knows the value of people who know the game, and Mike Holmgren knows the game.

He knows the value of scouting, how intently potential signings are scrutinized, and how it can still go wrong.

One thing Lerner didn’t have first-hand experience with was a relegation battle. Until now. And now that he has that experience, he’ll factor it in. He already has, in fact, with the purchase of Bent.

So what

What it means is that Lerner is looking at this as critically as we are, and he’s got the right experience to navigate these waters. He’s seen it all and more. If he seems unconcerned or even oblivious, he isn’t. He’s not in over his head. This isn’t beyond him.

He’ll splash the cash when he’s convinced it’s worth it, and he’ll also hope to see some return from the youth and reserve set-ups. Youth is a big part of the NFL, as are depth and turnover. Superstars are lost for the season every week. Backups are expected to step in and step up. Finding the right mix of veteran leadership, skill, and squad depth is crucial.

I’m of the mind that however he ended up being manager, Houllier was hired with the same intent as Holmgren, ie, to change the culture from the ground up, to put someone knowledgeable in charge. If Houllier isn’t able to continue as a manager, or even DoF, he’ll be consulted on his replacement. I imagine the same intent will guide that selection. What people need to remember is that Houllier’s appointment has to be taken in context. There were limited options and time.

A manager is never a guaranteed hire, but Randy’s tried the right thing in Cleveland, and appointed as good a candidate as any to carry it out. It will be different heading into the close season for Villa in terms of approaching managers who are with other clubs. I’m encouraged by Lerner’s approach in Cleveland.

Will Lerner get it right this summer? I’d like to think so. But if he doesn’t, it won’t be because he doesn’t know sports ownership or football. It will simply be because there are no certainties in sport – besides the “fact“ that, all other things being equal, the team with the most difference makers usually wins.