At the start of the season, I predicted Aston Villa would finish between 8th and 12th in the Premier League. For some, that may seem ambitious given McLeish’s performance to date. For another group, that may just be one great big disappointment given a perception of Villa’s stature.

Which is part of what I want to talk about in this article – stature. For a club that is often perceived as “big”, Villa have performed rather strangely in any modern era. Villa may well be a “big” club, whatever that even means, but we haven’t won anything in 16 years. The depressing part of it is I wouldn’t be surprised if it was at least another 16 years before we won anything of significance again.

Now before everyone grabs a bottle of wine and a handful of pills, this isn’t me saying to just give up and accept mediocrity as the standard. What I am saying though is that we do have to operate in the real world.

Money – Essential But Also An Essential Part Of The Problem

Now the league has the likes of Messrs Abramovich and Mansour in charge of Chelsea and Manchester City respectively, as well as the perennial high achieving Manchester United, things aren’t as simple as just throwing cash at the problem.

It’s easy to say “Villa should be bought by an oil billionaire” and expect to make a difference to the setup. Can we though? After all, Manchester City have spent over a £1bn on football transfers, fees, and commercial ventures since Sheikh Mansour took over at Eastlands. Yes, a BILLION pounds. That is more money than Randy Lerner owns, never mind what he can or can’t invest in Aston Villa.

Since Mansour took over at Eastlands, Manchester City have won the FA Cup once. Nice to earn silverware, but for £1bn? Not great value.

Now, I know that Manchester City may win the title this year, the fact remains that the infrastructure costs alone have cost more money than many owners in the whole game of football even own, let alone have to spend on a football club. Thus the amount of people who have the money to invest, and the degree of madness to want to invest are very limited. As much as we can sit here and dream about that happening, we shouldn’t really be wanting it to happen if we are honest.

Reality – It’s A Bitch

The reason we shouldn’t want to happen is pretty simple – the whole concept isn’t sustainable. Whether we want to accept the fact that football is another business, just like any other sports or non-sports venture, it is still governed by finances.

It is governed by the strange idea of making money out of the project over a long term period to ensure sustainability. Even the richest of owners will eventually run out of money if the constantly post losses, regardless of concepts such as Financial Fair Play.

Put yourself in the shoes of being a potential owner of a football club. Imagine you are stupendously rich. Assuming that you have earned your money in what ever industry your fantasy indulges, it would be safe to say that you would be a very shrewd business person. On the whole, shrewd business people tend to make money out of managing risk over extended periods of time via calculated gambles.

Football, on the other hand, is something of a financial black hole. Here is an industry that clearly operates on the premise of spending money equals (eventual) success. It isn’t a new concept, as back in 1994-95 when Jack Walker “bought” the title for Blackburn Rovers, money talked. Nowadays, the only difference is how much that cost is. In comparison to Walker’s era, Jack’s spending is mere pocket change to Lerner, never mind Mansour or Abramovich.

Focussing on Manchester City for a moment, they have some of the best players in the world playing for them, but even that doesn’t guarantee domestic success, never mind European success.

Look at the Galactico era at Real Madrid, it was hardly plain sailing. Whilst Ferguson still treads the touchline as Manchester United’s man in charge, money alone isn’t going to guarantee you anything, notwithstanding the roles of Chelsea and Manchester City as mentioned before.

If you’re rich, you’re smart with cash. If you’re smart with cash, you’re going to be naturally hesitant to invest in a sport that doesn’t offer much reward at all. Thus the pool of candidates is limited at best.

Fine, people see football as an entertainment business, but it still has to run like a business. Don’t believe me? Ask yourself if you’d rather be in the shoes of a Leeds fan, or a Portsmouth fan when it comes to ignoring finances. I wouldn’t.

The fact remains that even getting a super-rich owner in tomorrow would only guarantee you competing in the top four, and only after significant expenditure. Manchester City only got into the Champions League last year via the top four, the same year they won the FA Cup. Mansour took control in September ’08 so, even with someone that rich, things aren’t instantaneous.

Add to that the fact that being that super rich isn’t as much of an advantage as it was when Sheikh Mansour, or even Roman Abramovich took over. It is one thing being the richest man in the league because you trounce your rivals. It’s another when you’re just another billionaire. Randy is finding that out the hard way.

At present, Tony Fernandez who owns QPR is worth more money than Randy. Peter Coates who is the chairman at Stoke City is worth more too. Both have different tangible advantages over Lerner.

Fernandez has the draw of London and a lower expectation level from fans. Stay up this year, and QPR will have achieved a significant mission objective.

Peter Coates too has different parameters to those that govern Randy’s stewardship. Stoke are expected to compete in the Premier League, but have no major aims beyond doing their best. That said, Stoke got to a cup final last year, and are in Europe which, technically, was as good as Martin O’Neill’s achievements made for us. Yes, I know O’Neill got 6th for Villa, but it didn’t actually do anything more for the club that Pulis coming second in the FA Cup did barring a bit of extra prize money.

So do we really want a super rich person to come in, on the basis that once they have spent £1bn like City, competing against at least two other clubs with comparative spending power, to operate totally out of the realms of financial responsibility, just so we might win the title in the next five years?

Short term, it might be great, but then what? What if said owner then decides we are over in terms of interest as a plaything. Then it would be bye-bye Aston Villa, given the decision to ignore the rules of business. 137 years of history down the toilet.

We can’t legitimately sit here in a period of austerity, where the global economy has screwed many people over and legitimise ignoring consequence. Rich people ignored the rules to try and profiteer from the masses, and it has left a huge mess to clear up. To suggest we get an owner who thinks of money first, business second is foolish. It’s worse than that, it’s reckless.

So whilst I question Randy Lerner’s management ability at board level nowadays, the big question is how will we do better? A new owner might bring new money, but it is going to take a lot more than just the brute force of cash to make Aston Villa real contenders in the near future.

The future might not be bright, but at least it exists. Some might call it an endless limbo, but for me it is the best we can do till someone else with billions takes some sympathy towards B6.

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