Obviously we are still working hard to find the next manager of the club. The candidate list is drawn from a list of relatively obvious choices, each with their own financial strategy that underpins it. The question now is not only based on which manager we should employ, but also which financial strategy we should implement. The underpinnings of the success of the club rely heavily on these choices, and they vary wildly in terms of risk and reward.
As I’m sure most of you are aware, the candidate list is easily divided into three (maybe four if you can call Carlo a “category”) broad categories. To that end, I will first detail the groups, and how they will reflect on the long term future at the club.
Group A
Carlo Ancelotti
Carlo is undoubtedly an ambitious choice, perhaps too ambitious for the club. In terms of candidates for the job, his record is outstanding. Titles in Italy and England as well as cups, few would doubt that Ancelotti was good enough.
The problem here is that Ancelotti is used to success, and that success has to come from a strategic, well funded plan. Ancelotti wants confirmation that Villa are interested in a plan to get to the Champions League in the next three years. To his end, he would offer his expertise. His wage wouldn’t be an issue after paying £3m for Houllier, but the costs associated with transforming Villa into a top 4 team could be eye watering.
With Ancelotti’s timescales being invariably connected to a minimum three year contract, spending so much money would pose a large financial risk. If Martin O’Neill was entrusted with too much responsibility across the board, the responsibility Ancelotti would need to take to pay a return might be greater still.
Also, Ancelotti would convince wantaway players that we mean business. If they still want to leave, then we can’t do anything more.
Cost – £30-40m a year in transfers.
Risk – Very high financially. Could turn Villa into the top four, or put our finances in dire jeopardy if he quits for another club.
Expected reward – top four
Group B
Rafael Benitez & Martin Jol
Both Benitez and Jol come to the table with respectable English and foreign credentials. In terms of convincing Villa is the club for them, it wouldn’t be an issue – both men would jump at the chance of moving to a big club in England.
Risks here revolve around how these two operate within a smaller budget than Ancelotti would be expecting. It might be a £20m net per season cost, but it would involve purchases of critically important players. Given that neither Jol or Benitez would be interested in a squad full of tired and uninspiring British players, it would involve a radical change in terms of transfers in and out.
To that end, Benitez and Jol would mean the total switch around of the team. We’ve already seen how that can affect the team given last season’s performance, so are we able to risk that again?
Cost – £20m a year in transfers
Risk – Average financially. Would offer a progression that fans would need to buy into. Both men wouldn’t be able to, nor be expected to, transform the club overnight. Would Villa fans be happy with a change from average England players to average continental ones?
Expected reward – progression over 3 years to European regulars
Group C
David Moyes & Steve McClaren
Moyes and McClaren fall into the category of “safe” British candidates. Both men have displayed capability in terms of overachievement. Moyes with a Champions League place. McClaren with a UEFA Cup final with Middlesbrough coupled with a league win with FC Twente.
Neither would expect a massive amount of cash, and operating under the same £20m a year budget would pose a sensible level of risk given the Sky revenue. To Moyes, it would feel like a kings ransom. Both men would be able to utilise the squad that currently exists with Dunne & Collins, at least in the short term, able to play for a manager such as Moyes or McClaren.
Both good motivators with the right group of players (McClaren was starstruck with England), there is a good chance of a renaissance of certain individuals under this kind of setup, with the likes of Dunne, Collins, Warnock and Young likely to graft for these two.
For the purposes of comparison, we can include Owen Coyle in the same band.
Cost – £20m a year in transfers
Risk – Average financially. Impatient fans might find a continuation of the O’Neill style of plodding progress.
Expected reward – Get into the top 8 and stay there with a slow push on. Buy and sell English players, and profit on those that flourish.
Group D
Roberto Martinez
Young managers always pose a risk, especially those who have operated at smaller teams. Few can argue with the attacking flair of his teams that Martinez would offer an attractive, attacking style of football. However the expectations at Wigan are far different to those at Villa, even allowing for a slow start. Can Martinez make a big step up?
An eye for a bargain due to his time with Wigan, coupled with a stronger financial backing than Dave Whelan could offer, Martinez would be a shrewd financial choice. Unlikely to expect a fortune to play with, he already would have his eyes on some of his Wigan charges if he made the step up to Villa.
Martinez could comfortably replace the likes of Dunne and Collins with far cheaper options, and bring some much needed South American flair to the creative sources of the club. Coupled with his young age, Roberto could be a Villa manager for a very long time if he succeeds.
Cost – £10-20m a year in transfers
Risk – Low to average financially. Fans will like the style of football, but may not like the results if we fail to win.
Expected reward – Attractive football. Using his background to bring in the likes of N’Zogbia and Moses to the club. Development of foreign youngsters with a view to sell on and renew. Gradual progression up the table.
So the options vary wildly depending on who gets brought in, and how that will affect the progress of the club. For some there will be expectations of very quick success to offset financial gambles, for others it might be five years before we even get back to sixth. Anyway, what are your thoughts and who do you want? Are you willing to wait five years for a return to the top 6?
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