I was quite surprised to hear this morning that Randy Lerner was in negotiations to sell at least part of the Cleveland Browns. NFL franchises seldom hit the open market. With the exception of the Green Bay Packers, are all privately owned by families and are passed down like feudal estates. Franchises like the New York Giants, Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals, and Pittsburgh Steelers have been owned by the same families since their inceptions going as far back as the 1920s and 1930s.

NFL clubs are far more profitable than most (soccer) football clubs that are unrestrained by revenue sharing and salary caps. The only club that releases detailed financials is the publicly owned Green Bay Packers. In their latest reports the Packers reported record profits. Given that the Browns get an equal share of the NFL’s absurdly lucrative TV revenues, as well as selling out every home game it is safe to assume they turn a healthy profit.

All that being said, if Randy Lerner was inclined to sell the Browns, there may be no better time than right now. A year ago the league reached a new, 10-year Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). Any new owner coming in is assured of nine years of cost certainty. The league has also recently renewed its TV deals with broadcasters, assuring the league of ever higher revenue.

The NFL is also a mature business. There are no markets left in the US for the league to expand into. Los Angeles has been without a team since 1994, but it’s far more likely that a struggling franchise or a franchise in need of a new stadium moves to LA. The league has maxed out TV and sponsorship revenue, and the Browns who sell out their modern stadium have also likely maxed out game-day revenue. The league is trying to market the product internationally and the games at Wembley are a start, but it will be years or decades before international revenue becomes as significant as it is to the Premier League.

The NFL is also facing a massive class action lawsuit from over 1000 former players. The players are alleging the league was negligent in safeguarding players against the dangers of concussions. As a result many players are dealing with conditions like depression, early onset dementia, Alzheimer’s, and ALS as a result of multiple concussions and brain trauma. If the courts decide the league was negligent or willingly ignored the dangers of repeated concussions there is no telling what the league’s liability could be.

For these reasons it could make sense for Lerner to sell up, especially if the Villa really is his passion and not gridiron. It’s also unlikely he is just looking to take in a partner with the Browns. The rumored buyer already owns a stake in the Steelers. It would make no sense for him to essentially trade one minority stake for another. If anything the fact he has already gone through league approval to invest in the Steelers should make league approval for a Browns sale a mere formality.

Since there are sound business reasons to sell the Browns, it is a leap to assume he is going to pour the proceeds into Villa. The recession and a divorce settlement haven’t been kind to Randy’s net worth. With everything the club has done to balance the books they would be better off continuing to run the club in a sustainable manner.

With a new manager and new players, selling out Villa Park every week will do more for the club than the sale of the Browns. If the club can push on from there and finally redevelop the North Stand, match-day revenues will only increase and it would be a sign that the club is progressing.

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