After a win against the Geordies, we are up against a real random possibility. Very recently, West Ham were on a run that seemed to look like it would pull them from their position at the bottom of the table. However, after last week’s loss against surprise package Bolton, it seems like the run may have come off the rails.
So it is a fight between a side who may just be finding form to get out, against a side that may or may not be beginning to falter. It really could go either way which, in itself, is a bit of an insight into just how bad this season has been for the club. Worrying about a win against West Ham isn’t exactly evocative of “the Mighty Villa”.
Will the formation make a difference?
The formation is a tough one to pick. After recent success with 4-4-2, Houllier is in a very difficult situation. If he sticks with 4-4-2, and we lose then people are going to be on his back for not adapting. If we change to another formation and we lose, then he will get slammed for messing with a working formula. In this instance, it appears that nothing less than a win will please at least some of the fans, with the rest of us just nervously hoping that whatever we get, it is enough to keep us up.
Personally I would say we are well advised to stick to a 4-4-2 variation, perhaps with Petrov and Reo-Coker lying back in front of the defence, and Downing/Young on the wings. At least with a solid set of defensive midfielders, we should be able to hold up their midfield three (surely 4 central player and 2 full backs can manage that?), with the wingers being able to break against their full backs. The interplay with Luke Young and the player who has been on the left at the time (both Young and Downing) has been very good. Surprisingly, Walker hasn’t been as good as he has been previously, but when you play as an attacking fullback like he does (and our defence is as shaky as it has been), then it adds up to potential space for fast players to get in behind him. We’d better look out for wing play and the pace of their front players then.
Of course, it makes sense to look at the game from a statistical perspective, and that is what I’ve got for you next:
Statistics
The following statistics are provided kindly by Eurosport/Yahoo UK.
Darren Bent has scored four goals in his last four Premier League away games.
West Ham have won just one of the last nine Premier League meetings with Villa.
Aston Villa have won just one of their last 13 Premier League away games.
Villa’s only two away league wins this season have come against teams beginning with the letter W.
Aston Villa have dropped 23 points from winning positions, the joint-most in the Premier League.
Aston Villa are the only team who have not had a substitute score for them in the Premier League this season.
Villa have kept just two clean sheets in their last 22 Premier League matches.
Aston Villa have conceded more headed goals (13) than any other team in the Premier League.
West Ham have conceded a joint-high six penalties in the Premier League.
Only Blackpool (15) have picked up fewer points on home soil than West Ham in the 2010-11 Premier League.
Conclusions
It isn’t going to be an easy game given our shaky confidence, but it isn’t beyond us to win either. With the rollercoaster of a season we are having, picking a result is far from straight forward. It really could go either way, or to a draw. My heart says 2-0 Villa, but my head seems more likely at a 1-1 or 0-0 draw depending on how it starts initially.
So it could be three points, or it could be none. We’ll have to wait for Saturday and see which Villa turns up. Finally, here’s a little bit of an idea of how we might like to play against a team that is in the bottom three. Let’s hope that Petrov and Reo-Coker can play as well in midfield. Oh how things have changed in almost exactly three years.
The Author
