I was sitting here this morning, the day after I have renewed my ticket for Villa Park last night and pondering a few things about our situation, and the future of our manager.
After £580 spent for a ticket next year (well actually it was a gift from my father but that was the cost) and all the talk of no renewals, I started to do some mathematics in my head.
The suggestion now that so many fans are choosing not to renew and are, at the time of receiving a call from the ticket office, stating that their decision to do so is directly down to the manager gives the club a crystallised point of knowledge.
What do I mean? Well, as has been stated on here before, Alex McLeish’s contract is heavily based on incentives. The board’s installation of him was about getting a hated man to do a tough job. If it worked out, the club would come out smelling of roses. If not, so long Alex.
With McLeish’s contract being structured as it is, removing him won’t be as costly as the sacking of Gerard Houllier. So, to that end, if there is a legitimate reason for getting rid – and I’m sure we can all make several solid arguments on why – then he could and would be removed.
If we take the average ticket to be roughly £500 each (I know it isn’t exactly but it helps with the maths example), then 2,000 tickets not sold mean a million less in the bank.
What does this have to do with Alex McLeish though? Well if McLeish is a cost saving option as suggested regularly, then having thousands less season tickets sold will mean less money. Less money coming in means less money able to be spent, which means that the “value” of McLeish would have to be reviewed.
In simple business terms, if McLeish’s continued tenure is going to cost the club millions, and a mere 4,000 less tickets would, in our example at least, mean £2m less in the coffers, then the gaffer is expendible.
This is nothing to do with his footballing ethos, or to do with his performance, but remember this club is run like a business, and little else. McLeish being sacked would be a simple business decision – if the fans state in large enough numbers they won’t renew, it’ll be bye-bye.
I know many fans may feel angry that the decision to get rid of McLeish may well end up being nothing to do with the football we have watched this season. As we all know, there have been few high points in a very dull and uninteresting season as an Aston Villa fan, so the fact this integral part of our club’s concept – being a football team – is being ignored is enough to make most fans angry.
However, if the lack of season ticket sales does prove to make the changes many had hoped for, then the questions that remain revolve more around who can be attracted to the club as manager. Whilst Villa aren’t a top prospect for a candidate compared to the likes of Manchester United or even Chelsea in current times, with investment the club could be an attractive proposition.
Which is why, in my opinion, McLeish made the shortlist at the start of the season. Had this year been any kind of normal year of Villa’s history, McLeish wouldn’t have made the long list, never mind get the job. The only reason he came in was because the club had to cut costs and, if we are honest, few managers would see such a thankless task as anything other than a potential blot on their resume.
Next year, when the money is available following this year’s severe cuts, assuming Villa aren’t relegated of course, then the club’s management position will be a far more attractive proposition. It still won’t have the gravitas of the very top jobs, but it would certainly be a good candidate for a manager wanting to continue his rise in the game.
So, next season, if season tickets do continue to not be renewed, it may well be so long Alex McLeish. The important thing that this shows is that, despite some of the inept communication between club and fans, if fans don’t buy into a concept for the long term, there is no future for that person – be they player, manager, or owner.
If we can survive – and I think we will – the clouds may well be starting to lift. The future may well turn out to be bright, even if the decisions to make changes come from finances and not football.
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