As we are all fully aware, December brings a tough set of fixtures for Villa – six games, four of which are against the top seven teams. Thus, as popular fan view may dictate, we’re unlikely to win many times. It could be bleak times ahead.
However, what I am asking you to do now is a bit different to what might be considered usual. For a moment, I want you to try to forget any expectation of a result in any of these matches. Don’t try and predict it.
Villa will, at least by the bookies, be second favourites in all four of those matches. Thus, as logic would have it, probability would dictate that Villa are not going to win those games.
Which may well be true, but it might also be wrong. After all, if every favourite won every competition, bookies would be losing money every week. As it stands, they aren’t.
Villa As Outsiders
I have written on several occasions regarding the fact that promoted teams benefit from freedom that the expectation of losing gives them. In my mind, Villa can do something with this concept if we can manage to get past a stumbling block – our pride.
As many have already said, zero points out of twelve in those games could very much happen. This is not much different to how Norwich, Swansea or QPR may have seen such competitions. If expectation brings a loss, you may as well go down fighting.
My suggestion involves a dramatic shift in tactical formation for McLeish or, at the very least, a change in attitude towards how the game is played. Defence needs to go out the window in these matches. Some might call that suicidal, but I call it sabotage of opposition plans.
Most opponents, never mind the biggest teams, will have a fair understanding of how McLeish’s Villa will play. Defend first, then move forwards. On the basis of that argument in itself, it isn’t a terrible concept. One need only look at Italian football to know that defence first can work very well.
The problem with defence first is that it isn’t pretty. Ugly football is forgivable if it works. If it doesn’t, it’s the epitome of anti-football, and McLeish would do well to work that out sooner rather than later.
Show Us What You’ve Got Alex
What these teams won’t be expecting is some serious attacking football. Villa proved last season that when attacking football, either counter-attacking or all out attack, is put into place, it can have some results. Houllier managed to lead 2-0 against Manchester United last season at home because of how the team played. If McLeish can do that and reinforce the defensive capability I know he has, Villa could be on to a winner.
Looking further back, if we analyse Martin O’Neill’s football ethos under a microscope, we know what did and didn’t work. Counter-attacking worked, and that meant breaking with pace. Pace is achievable with several of our players, so we can do that effectively.
In my mind, expecting to lose means being free. Free to play Albrighton wide, Gabby left, and N’Zogbia in the hole with Bent up top. Villa need to take the chances they have, even if they actually appear negative, and flip them to mess up the opposition. In short, Villa need to impose on to the game.
If players don’t have the legs to compete, then they aren’t going to work in this kind of setup. Using players that do have the legs is the way forwards. Are we going to expect to soak up pressure against better teams than us and do anything more than not lose? No. Attitudes need to change.
Villa need confidence and, if I were manager, I’d be taking every opportunity to get it into these players. Use the O’Neill tactic – make yourself the underdog, and use that to smash and grab. It might not be total football, but it is better than McLeish’s current methods.
Get Albrighton running down the wings with Cuellar behind him. Have Gabby the other side, supported by Ciaran Clark at left back. Play a flat back four with the height of four centre halves and the pace to break at teams with effort and energy.
Drop Hutton and Warnock to make a statement. The statement means “Play poorly, and you’re going to be dropped”. The statement needs to be made or things are going to get lazier, not better.
For me, the line up would be:
Given
Cuellar – Dunne – Collins – Clark
Petrov – Delph
Albrighton – N’Zogbia – Agbonlahor
Bent
Subs would be: Guzan, Herd, Bannan, Weimann, Ireland, Hutton, Warnock.
Keeping Hutton and Warnock on the bench would mean they didn’t feel they are being castigated, but can still see they are going to be treated in accordance with their form or lack thereof.
If the tactic puts fear into the opposition, then Gabby can push up and have N’Zogbia and Albrighton wide. Use the pace even more, and crank it up.
What Villa need to do now they are faced with big challenges is to show us their mettle. We don’t want or need a defensive game that means a countdown to conceding.
Beating bigger teams means being bold and strong. Do that, and we may surprise many with the result. Do the same old defensive tactic, and we will get thumped.
The choice, Alex, is yours. We hope you pick the right one.
The Author
