What do Everton and Aston Villa have in common? Well, besides being mired in the annual sixth-through-10th battle, they’ve both lost their best player and have only managed to win once against the same woeful Blackburn side this season. The two usual suspects on the outside looking in.

However, Villa did manage to beat Blackburn with a bit more flair, and Blackburn will have felt a bit cheated at how they lost to the Toffees on a last-gasp penalty after having missed two of their own and hitting the woodwork three times.

While it’s generally safe to predict a draw with Everton, I’m of the mind that Villa should be looking toward all three points in this one, even if it is at Goodison.

What Villa Will We See?

Well, it’s anyone’s guess, really. I’m imagining that Hutton will start. This might bother me if Lichaj wasn’t injured. I don’t know whether Jenas will figure. He’s got 194 appearances under his belt between Forest, Newcastle and Spurs (155 of those coming at Spurs), and scored 21 times in league play for Tottenham. He did make six Champions League appearances last year, so say what you like, he’s got as much experience there as anyone already in claret and blue.

Of greater interest is whether Alex McLeish will persist with the 4-2-3-1 we’ve been seeing.

I’ve been reading a lot of criticism of the formation, but I don’t think it’s been an unsound way to start out for a very much under-pressure McLeish. While I thought we’d see more tinkering, McLeish seems to have decided that to start, at least, this was his preferred lineup, and he’s obviously seemed intent to give it enough of a go to find out what’s there.

Some are calling it defensive, indeed “negative”. And I’m not surprised. But with four up front, three of whom are “strikers”, and N’Zogbia, it doesn’t seem particularly negative to me.

The problem, of course, comes in when we consider our back four, who are defending better in no small part because McLeish has Delph helping Petrov shield them.

Behind the Complaints

Our back four just aren’t very athletic. They’re not possessed of great speed or agility. They don’t get up and down the pitch very well, and they can’t turn and run and cut off strikers in the open field.

Which means they’re at their best with their backs to the wall (ie, very little space behind them), defending deep. This in turn means Villa get stretched, and Petrov and Delph have a lot of work to do. Moreover, this means that Villa are often left to the counter or quick breaks with little support arriving from midfield, and we can’t pinch up and dominate in the opposition half knowing how exposed we’d be at the back as a result. Delph has been doing his best to get forward and back, and has played well, but it’s a big ask of most any player given Petrov’s limitations. The back four need shielding, and this presents problems for McLeish. This is why Gabby and Heskey are playing.

Would I rather see Bannan or Ireland in for Heskey? In the abstract, yes. However, in terms of size, work-rate, awareness, tracking back…It’s hard to see either Bannan or Ireland having the same overall impact. Not that they wouldn’t add more flair and creativity—they would.

So my bold prediction is that if we score goals, we’ll see more of the same. Another scoreless draw, or a loss, and we may very well see some changes. But I’m not betting on that. Perhaps Jenas will add something that changes the balance. I hope it doesn’t come at Delph’s expense.

I would like to think that if Villa can build on the early results we’ll see more variety as the pressure eases. But McLeish’s job right now isn’t to blood the youngsters or rehabilitate Ireland—it’s to get results that see us clear of any relegation battle. Ireland can rehabilitate himself, and Albrighton and Bannan are going to have to make their own cases in the short term. Remember, this was a side divided and in chaos last year. We could do a lot worse than notch a few solid, if uninspiring results right now.

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