We have read in recent days a number of views on what fans might think about a takeover, though one is far from forthcoming as we speak. Given that the the topic has been covered in depth, I wanted to look at something different – running a football club as a business.

I have noticed over the past few months that there appears to be an increasing divide in terms of what an owner should or shouldn’t expect from a decision to take over a football club. For some fans, the expectation should be like any business – to make money as well as progress a plan – whilst others think asking to make money out of football is simply having the wrong attitude.

The question I have to ask is this – what is it about football that makes a view of making a profit a bad thing? Regardless of the impact of Financial Fair Play, football is a business. Yes, the main sources of income may be different to many other organisations, and there may be far bigger wage disparities between employees – the zero hour contract worker at Villa Park is below the minimum wage whilst first team footballers earn tens of thousands of pound – but it is still a business, like it or not.

We know, from simple mathematics, that there are only a small, finite number of super rich oligarchs and sheikhs who can come to the rescue. The attraction for such a plan is the promise of unlimited wealth, though the realities of FFP stop things being enacted in such a straight forward manner.

Add into that the fact that there are already super rich teams in the league, and the proposition of buying a football club as a play thing becomes even less interesting – in short, there are too many people trying for the same top four places.

In the Premier League, we already have two financial powerhouses – in the shape of Manchester City and Chelsea. These are teams who have, to a lesser and greater extent, had years to spend money without restriction on getting better. Manchester City in particular, have spent £1bn on deals since the arrival of Sheikh Mansour. If there is one thing that can be said with any certainty, it is that very few individuals can spend that kind of money, whether their intention is profit or power.

As we also know, there are other teams who have solid bases in terms of success. First we have Manchester United, a team who, whilst performing below expectations this season, have grown to become arguably the number one football brand on the planet, certainly the biggest brand in English football.

We also have Arsenal. Whilst Arsenal haven’t built their success on spending – at least not for the majority of Arsene Wenger’s time at the club – they have had stability and a plan, even though one could argue the plan has been no deeper than keeping Wenger in post.

So, with the above we have the makings of a top four who, if nothing else, have more turnover than us as an organisation. With FFP becoming an increasing factor in the game, and turnover something increasingly hard to grow organically, it quickly becomes obvious that all “fair play” serves to do is cement the big clubs in the big places.

Of course, accidents happen. We have seen, in the aftermath of Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement, that United are not invincible in footballing terms. However, whether David Moyes lasts one season or ten, it will take a significant downward trend for United to lose the level of turnover they currently have – United aren’t just reliant on gates and TV money like most, they are a global brand making fortunes in merchandising.

Getting back to my original point, I wanted to look at the divide I see appearing. Can we, as fans, ever be expectant that an individual will throw endless amounts of money at us for little or no return? In short, can Villa – or any other club for that matter – live in any hope that a “saviour” will turn up wanting to spend money hand over fist?

In a recent post, I critiqued the overly austere measures taken by Lerner. Perhaps, in doing so, I implied that the purse strings should be loosened massively and, to that end, I feel I should clarify my position.

I used the well worn term “speculate to accumulate” because spending too little can be dangerous. However, and by the same token, spending too much can pose as much a danger, evidence of which can be found in the early years under our present chairman.

However, speculating to accumulate does not, at any point, imply that Lerner – or any owner hereafter – should be forced to forget any concept of making money or, at the very least, breaking even. Regardless of FFP, the pool of people who can do such a thing is small – they are either so rich they can afford to lose a billion pounds and/or so stupid they don’t care if they end up in the gutter after burning all their money.

Be honest, as an adult, can we seriously suggest such a plan is wise? Moreso, can we suggest any plausible, logical business person who would contemplate such an idea as worth even a second of their time?

Is it really anything you or I could if we had the money, with hand on heart, say that we would want to do, regardless of how much we love the club?

Would you burn every last penny of your money, even as a lifelong fan, just to see Villa maybe get in the top six? I wouldn’t, and I love the club dearly. That said, I’m not so foolish as to bankrupt myself just to chase something that may or may not come off – it is the very definition of insanity.

Switching the focus to back to FFP, if there is one thing the longer term impact will have – beyond the fact the successful will stay rich – it is to work out who has a plan and who doesn’t. We’ve seen that United could easily implode financially if their long standing successful streak runs out, but we’ve also seen that many clubs success – well at least United and Arsenal – are built solely on individuals, not on a plan.

If finances are to rise at Villa, or at any other club, what will need to happen is a strategic plan to build things, but in a holistic sense – not just a penny pincher who ignores the football being played, but equally not an underlying ethos that offers flair but ignores money.

We’ve seen in recent years that Villa can survive on a cheap budget, but we’re yet to see if there is an underlying ethos in place. What happens if Paul Lambert leaves tomorrow? Will Villa know how to move forwards, or will we see another non-sequitur the same as we did when Gerard Houllier followed Martin O’Neill, or when McLeish took over after Houllier’s ill-health?

I have to say I’m not convinced but, and this is key, I do know one thing – ignoring your balance sheet is a crime that could destroy your club’s existence but, by the same token, if you ignore your fans, the finances will implode eventually.

We’ll see soon enough if Villa can maintain a balance between money and style or if their financial moves does little but prove that they are just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic with no long term footballing vision beyond “trust the current manager”. I sincerely hope it is the former.

The Winner Takes It All – Well The Prize Anyway

Following our competition in association with Campo Retro, I am delighted to say that the winner is…

*drum roll*

Gary Haddon, known on site as Steamer.

So, Steamer, well done on winning the competition, and please get in touch so we can ensure your shirt of choice is sent to you.

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