In thinking about formations yesterday, I found myself thinking about the defense.

Don’t me wrong. Assuming N’Zogbia agrees personal terms, we’ve still lost our two most creative players. That might very well pose a problem going forward. But with an eager-to-please Ireland and then N’Zogbia and Albrighton, I’d argue, if things pan out, that we’ll present much different challenges to teams next season, and could end up being every bit as dangerous—if not moreso—than we were last year, when we scored 48, which put us about exactly where we deserved to be, even thought the goal differential was -11. (As an aside, it’s also the case that the final top 10 finishing order very closely tracks total goals scored, not surprisingly.)

What struck me was when I looked at last season’s final table was the fact Villa conceded 40 goals on the road, but just 19 at home. Goals scored were 26 and 22, home and away respectively—not much difference. It was the amount we conceded away from Villa Park that’s a bit rich, and led to a 4-5-10 record on the road. Of course, the Newcastle debacle skews the number a bit, and the overlap of certain games and injuries has to be taken into consideration.

Still, the only teams to have conceded more on the road were Blackburn, with 43, then West Brom and Blackpool at 41. We only scored eight more goals in all games than we conceded solely on the road.

That’s a ratio that has to improve.

Parking the bus?

Will it come at the expense of goals scored? I hope not, because our 2010-11 tally wasn’t phenomenal. And it doesn’t necessarily have to. We’ll still have speed, a full season of Bent (fingers crossed), which should equal a better rate of converting our chances, a pacy winger who can beat a fullback and put in a quality ball, and a dynamic, unpredictable winger who looks to make things happen.

But Petrov and Dunne don’t fill me with confidence, and Warnock’s got a long way back. If we were bringing in a new DM and a quality, athletic CB, I’d feel very good about next year.

If the problem we had last year was that the back four were more exposed, McLeish is going to have to find the middle ground between giving them more protection without stifling our ability to get forward. Dunne and Warnock have to perform. There has to be discipline and fitness: get the ball back, hold onto it, limit breaks. And for me, someone has to step up and put Petrov out of a job.

Let’s say Ireland comes good. You’re penciling in him, Albrighton and N’Zogbia as three of your starting midfield five. And given the players we have, I don’t think we have a choice but to largely go with a five-man midfield, however they’re arranged. That leaves Bannan, Delph, Makoun, and Petrov. Who are the pair that can team up and do the rest of the work? I would like to think it could be Makoun and Delph.

Speaking of formations, McLeish is quoted in the Mail as saying that they’ve looked at a couple different things in training, and that the players have been positive and receptive. Everyone seems to keep asking McLeish about the negative football, and he’s perhaps getting a bit tired of it.

“There was a lot of terrific football played by that team last season,’’ McLeish said. “It’s horses for courses, you wouldn’t have Stephen Ireland back post to go long balls for him, you have to use the tools you have available.”

So, we’ll see. We won’t get to see N’Zogbia incorporated for a bit yet, so what we see in Hong Kong is going to be a work in progress. And if anyone’s heard the results of Stephen Ireland’s scan, I’d like to know it.

If there’s one thing I do know, though, it’s that we’re going to be a bit thin. Even if the starting 11 works itself out and looks good, we’re going to need to have a little luck on the injury front. There’s every chance that the younger players beyond Albrighton, Delph, and Bannan will need to step up.

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