Let me start this piece by declaring some honest, if self-evident statements. Firstly, I write this as an Aston Villa supporter. I mean this both as a fan who loves the club, and as a paying customer for coming up to several decades. In that sense, I’d like to think that my analysis is at least grounded, even if it is emotionally influenced.
Secondly, I’ll be candid about my feelings towards those who run the club – I have no allegiance or particular like or dislike for any particular person. I obviously support those who run the club on the selfish basis that I want our club to do well, but I have no particular love or hatred for the board, manager or any of the players – I simply want them to do well because they wear our colours.
Anyway, I want to get into the crux of what this article is about – this summer and the ramifications of what happens when the transfer window shuts on August 31st.
I should therefore state my belief that, yes, I feel Villa will stay up this season. I don’t expect it to be fluid, interesting or classy, but I do think the team will survive. I could, of course, be wrong, but I think there is enough about the team to think that there will be three clubs worse than us come the end of May.
However, this method of existing is not something that we can afford to see for all eternity. Much has been made of the fact that Paul Lambert has been rebuilding the club over the past few seasons, but I have to take issue with that statement – I think the reality is that he has been making do as best as he can given his resources.
We all know the long history of Villa’s financial woes and the need to cut down from what was a bloated and poor value squad. In that sense, most – if not all – of us supported the need to get rid of players who were not earning the wages paid to them.
What we probably didn’t support is the idea that Villa could get by on salaries that are mere percentages of what was being offered before. Sure, you’ll find very few who will argue that the likes of Alan Hutton, Habib Beye, Richard Dunne, or James Collins were (or are) being paid more than they should have been by Villa, but the truth is that you can’t cut wages alone and expect progress.
Nowadays, I do think Villa have good value in terms of what they pay players versus how those players should be paid in market terms. The main issue facing Villa though is that the league – and the club’s subsequent placing – isn’t based on monetary value propositions, they are based on how well the club can play football.
For a club that has bought numerous players and paid them less than £10k a week in multiple instances, it should perhaps be no surprise at all that the overall quality of play has gone down. Yes, the previously mentioned overpaid individuals were earning more than they should be, but I’ll argue that you get what you pay for in other senses – and that £10k a week or so is not enough for players who are expected to be regular starters.
Now, I know that Villa have spent more money on certain players. Christian Benteke, a player who has arguably been the biggest find of the Lambert era, earned around £25k a week in his first season at the club. Since then, he has seen his wages doubled to £50k, enough to convince him – and his agent Eric Kismet – that his future was at Villa Park, if only for the short term.
For Villa, Benteke’s wages will be – once Darren Bent and Shay Given are offloaded – the highest paid of any player at the club. In line with the fact that Benteke is arguably Villa’s most valuable player – in monetary terms at least – such a payment makes sense. Where the problems arise, however, is that this takes an overly simplified view of scale.
For example, if Benteke was to leave Villa at the end of the season, presumably going to a team in the top six or so, he would easily earn £75-100k a week and, assuming he performs to his abilities, would be good value at that price.
What this does illustrate for Villa though is that the wages being paid are artificially low, and arguably at a level too low to sustain progress. In that sense, I can’t say it is wholly surprising that we are no further up than we are at present – for want of a better way of putting it, the old adage “Pay peanuts, get monkeys” seems appropriate.
Don’t get me wrong – I don’t think Villa’s players are awful, but I do think they are consonant with the wages being paid to them. Villa’s main problem, as relevant as it may have been to both Randy Lerner and Financial Fair Play, is that the club’s wage bill had been overinflated to dramatic effect, leaving cost cutting the only option.
With that said, we all know there are far more shades of gray between where we were under the peak of Martin O’Neill’s successes and where we are now. Tell me, honestly, how we are expect to flourish when we don’t have the money to pay the going rate – not an inflated rate – to Premier League standard footballers?
It is this particular issue – wages – that makes the summer a very important time for the club and us as fans. Come the summer the club, as stated directly by the board to the club’s own trust, should be in a balanced position. With that in mind, £40m should be able to be spent, assuming of course that Villa do stay in the Premier League and therefore receive the £80m or so expected next season in TV revenue.
At that point, both wages and fees need to be higher. We can not afford to be buying ten players in the close season for £1-2m each and expect anything different. To repeat my earlier point, I wholly appreciate cuts needed to be made, but they are at the point now where Villa’s own survival is hanging in the balance – there is no absolute certainty that we will stay up, only hope that we can.
If Villa do go ahead and do the unthinkable – and get relegated – the board may well argue that the club will be in a position to at least pay its way if it had to get by on a comparatively meagre £12m or so per year in parachute payments.
The main issue for the club at that point though will be that £12m a year means little more wages than are currently spent on the likes of Joe Bennett, Jordan Bowery or other lower paid individuals.
Which, if I am to be totally candid, leaves me thinking that getting back up again would be a significant challenge. Yes, the club would likely be buoyed by sales of key players – Benteke being one player who most certainly would not follow Villa into the Championship if they are to go down – but that return in transfers fees would likely only offer a small boost, and one that relies strongly on Villa bouncing back straight away.
My concern, and I imagine the concern of many of us as fans, is that we are paying lower wages than many Championship teams and ending up with players of a consonant quality – a quality that one could strongly argue is the reason why we are headed closer to the bottom of the league than the top.
Things could change, of course, and the return of Jores Okore will hopefully be the boost we need to shore up a poor defence, though the reality is that Villa’s survival will likely hinge on the fitness of Ron Vlaar more than any other individual in the run in.
Can Villa survive? Whilst relegation can’t be ignored, I do believe they can, but the board must realise that more money must be spent in the summer as the club’s luck will most certainly run out some time if salaries are kept as low as they currently are.
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