This post is sponsored by Barcelo Hotels – 4 Star Hotels in 19 countries worldwide. Click below and use code C8597571ABEB to get 5% off your booking.
Here we are, three games from the end of the season and we aren’t mathematically safe. Probability states that in a closing set of matches including this one, Arsenal away, and Liverpool at home, that we have the best chance of securing the points we need to guarantee our Premier League status in this match vs Wigan. I’m not saying we definitely won’t get something from the last two games, but I’d rather go into them safe than not. God forbid if we needed a point from the last match given who it is against. In that instance, I think it is very fortunate that Gerard Houllier won’t be in the dugout for the match.
Thinking back on our ongoing dance with death, it really does make me have a sick feeling in my stomach that we, Aston Villa, still need one point in game 36 in order to stay up. Normally we’d be expecting such a situation to be connected to our club, more likely Small Heath or some other smaller club. Still, it is what it is, and we have to get a point at least between now and the end of the season to keep us up.
The task in hand
Anyway, I digress from the main issue and that is the game against Wigan. Looking at all things, it “should” be a clear cut obvious home win for us. I say “should” because this season has been anything but normal for us.
Wigan certainly won’t be walkovers. With Figueroa, N’Zogbia, Moses, and Rodallega all perfectly capable of walking into our side given the chance Wigan have, as John Clark said earlier this week, difference makers. What is slightly alarming is that I am talking about a team in 18th position and who, in my opinion, do not think will roll over easily.
If I am to suggest what I think will be the score, it will probably be a scoreline of 2-1. I say 2-1 because I think we have sufficient creativity from the likes of Downing and Bent to get on the scoresheet, but I have a nagging thought that our defence isn’t able to keep a clean sheet. Why? One only needs to look at our record and it becomes immediately obvious that we have defensive issues. All I can say is thank God we bought Darren Bent, or we really would have been screwed. With Heskey back, I think he will do more for us than Gabby which, again, says a lot more about how badly we have been this year given that most would argue that Gabby is the better goalscorer given their current ages.
I think the team will be Friedel / L.Young – Dunne – Collins – Walker / Downing – Petrov – Reo-Coker – Young / Bent – Heskey in a 4-4-2.
This could be the moment where we can finally breathe easy come the end of the game. If we somehow walk away with nothing from the match, I think there will be increasing furore come 4:45. For the sake of our common health, I look forward to at least a point against Wigan, and hopefully three.
Will Reo-Coker stay on?
Nigel Reo-Coker has told the media that he hasn’t, as has been reported, rejected a contract offer from the club. Whilst last season I might have considered him to be leaving the club for definite, I think that he has done enough to warrant a new contract this season, albeit just as an extension rather than a pay rise. He has proved to be one of the more solid performers this year, and stability is something we could do with to build upon.
I personally think Nigel has had to put up with quite a lot over recent times and, barring the public spat with Martin O’Neill, I think he has worked hard and made himself a solid place in the first team. Quite how that would pan out next season when Makoun should be more settled I am unsure, although one would imagine that Petrov will struggle to play 90 minutes a game come August. I think if he wants increased terms though, I personally would say no and look at replacing him come the summer.
Anyway, to finish the article off, I will put up some pertinent statistics for the forthcoming match.
Statistics
Villa average only 1.25 goals scored per game. Their goals conceded per game is 1.62.
Villa have conceded 57 goals in the league this year, with a third of these coming in the last 15 minutes.
A quarter of Villa’s goals scored come in between the 60th and 75th minute.
Villa have lost a total of 26 points from winning positions which is the worst record in the Premier League.
Villa have only won half of the games where they have scored first. By contrast, when their opponent has scored first, Villa have lost two third of their matches, with only one win after going behind.
Darren Bent is the top goalscorer for Aston Villa, despite having only signed in January.
Villa are ranked 11th for their performance against bottom half teams, with a record of 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per match vs a bottom half club.
The Author
