We’ve got Spurs in the League Cup tonight, so I thought I’d bring up something I’ve been noticing as it relates to both criticism and praise of Villa, and peoples’ thoughts on the Premier League in general.

I’ve made a point of watching as many games as I can this season. Not that I wasn’t interested before—I simply haven’t had the time to watch more than Villa and maybe one other. What I’ve seen has been interesting. Basic takeaway? I’ve seen the things Villa are criticized for in virtually every game I’ve watched.

Take Spurs, for example. Lots of money spent, everyone seems to like their model, and yet they’re having a hard time scoring from open play despite signing a number of players Villans wanted in. Are they not good enough? Just taking time to adjust? Was Bale that important?

Could be any and all of the above. But the fact remains they’ve won two on penalties 1-0, and their most recent in injury time, 1-0. We can perhaps justifiably praise their defensive prowess. Or we could criticize their lack of offensive punch.

What about City? I’ve watched that billion-pound experiment look as disjointed and poor as Villa have in a dire 0-0 draw against Stoke, and then seen them play scintillating football in comprehensively dismantling United. Were United poor? Too dependent on van Persie? Lacking the bite and intensity? Or did City just decide to show up?

United beating Crystal Palace 2-0 on a penalty and a free kick, with only van Persie’s rocket volley off the crossbar counting as a truly good chance from open play. What about Chelsea, and Mourinho’s desire to remake them, getting one win in their last five outings?

Liverpool failing to score and losing from a set piece?

The pattern is all over the place: Goals are at a premium, as are chances. There are the odd exceptions each week, but overall the league is very tight: teams are spending money, and yet two-thirds are all ending up in roughly the same place whatever route they choose. The sides with the big money sign more difference-makers, meaning that although the lesser side has thwarted them all game, sooner or later some individual ‘moment of brilliance’ ends up making the difference. Not systems, subs or tactics, just superior personnel in only one or two given moments.

Yet we hear all this concern about Villa’s inability to break teams down. I’ve got news for you: It’s not just Villa.

This isn’t to say Villa couldn’t be better in a number of areas. But the league is becoming ever-more incredibly competitive. Which leads to ‘ugly’ games as teams cancel each other out, scrappy performances, a search for any edge. A spurned gilt-edged opportunity can make all the difference. So can a single save. As Villa lost three, Guzan barely had anything to do. The two vital saves against Norwich is about the most I’ve seen him called on. There’ve been no acrobatics to perform, hardly any quality chances but the ones that got converted. Goals have gone in, yes: 1, 2, 1, 2, 0. But how many times was Guzan really tested?

What happens at Norwich if Andi converts either early chance? Or Gabby and Andi against Newcastle?

This isn’t about making excuses or defending anything. What it is is pointing out the obvious: At the moment, real clear-cut chances are worth their weight in goald. The kind of football you play means nothing: Creating and converting one or two chances does, however it comes about.

With Benteke out, I’ve no idea what this means in the short term. With Villa’s propensity to ship a silly goal a game, it seems damning. Yet, the side isn’t giving other teams a plethora of good opportunities in reality.

So, my prescription is simple. Make the other team really earn it when they score, and convert more of the good chances we have actually created. Oh, and go beat Spurs tonight 1-0 (although the pattern suggests we’re due to concede one, so call it 2-1).

Simple, right? I thought so. Aren’t you glad I’m watching more football?

Oh, and here’s an interesting tidbit that relates to Villa’s form at home. I’d never really thought about it this way, the size of Villa Park…we always think it’s an advantage, an invitation to expansive, magnificent football, and wingers. But looking at it in reverse, it may have some bearing on why we do better on the road (although we haven’t been conceding late goals yet this season, which is the focus of the piece): http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/22646131

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